日本无线基础设施市场：2024 年 4 月

本报告重点关注日本无线基础设施市场，分析乐天移动的推出以及日本政府推动开放RAN的影响。它还提供 2023 年的详细数据、2024 年的展望以及 5 年 RAN 预测。

目录

概述

重点

2023 年：预计从 4G 过渡到 5G，但不足以维持市场成长

• 预计 5G 单元数量将是实际部署数量的 2.7 倍
• 由于单位销售低于预期，销售预测有所下降，但这被较高的平均售价部分抵消
• 投资5G仍没有强烈动力
• 2023 年 Open RAN BTS 占部署总数的 43%
• 儘管市场占有率下降，Ericsson仍保持第一；Nokia、Fujitsu 、NEC的占有率将在 2023 年扩大。
• Nokia继续缩小与Ericsson的差距
• NEC重回第三位
• Samsung三年涨势在2023年陷入停滞，但供应商仍领先Fujitsu
• 儘管Fujitsu 总部位于日本，但它正在发展强劲的国际业务。
• 2024年充其量也将持平，充满5G
• 到 2028 年，开放虚拟 RAN 可能占所有 5G RAN 单元的 95%

日本向世界展示了5G开放VRAN岛的样子

• 近两年来，、Rakuten Symphony迅速扩张并开始征服世界
• 去年，、Rakuten Symphony的世界统治地位陷入停滞，一些知名高管离开了公司。
• 这一势头推动Fujitsu和 NEC 跻身 RU 供应商和 SI 冠军之列，但情况将在 2023 年发生变化。
• KDDI、NTT DOCOMO、Softbank积极推动开放RAN议程
• Docomo、KDDI、Softbank和Rakuten Mobile合作成立 Otic 以加速开放 RAN 部署

2018年：日本决定改变寡占的手机市场并启动Open RAN议程

• 受美国影响，日本政府迅速采取开放RAN计划
• 给予Fujitsu和NEC激励以巩固其市场地位
• 美国要求 NTT 和 NEC 成为 Open RAN 政策联盟创始成员
• 目前，美日在6G等多个领域合作

This report focuses on Japan's wireless infrastructure market and analyzes the implications of the introduction of Rakuten Mobile and the Japanese government's open RAN push. The publication date is scheduled a few weeks after the 4 services providers (KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, Rakuten Mobile, and Softbank) provide their interim report so that we can gather many details about 2023 and provide 2024 outlook and a 5-year RAN forecast. This report includes base station (BTS) numbers and RAN vendor market shares and analysis.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

2023 SAW A SHIFT FROM 4G TO 5G, BUT IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARKET IN GROWTH TERRITORY

• We expected 2.7x more 5G units than what was deployed
• Fewer units than anticipated sunk the sales forecast, a decline partially offset by the rise of ASP
• There is still no strong motivation to invest in 5G
• Open RAN BTS accounted for 43% of total units deployed in 2023
• While losing market share, Ericsson stay #1, Nokia, Fujitsu and NEC gained share in 2023
• Nokia continued to close the gap with Ericsson
• NEC is back to #3
• Samsung's 3-year long ascension stalled in 2023 but the vendor managed to stay ahead of Fujitsu
• While keeping a foot in its home turf, Fujitsu enjoys a robust international business

• 2024 IS LOOKING FLAT AT BEST AND 5G LOADED
  • The MIC's roadmad leads to a peak followed by a huge drop
  • The Japanese government's initial 5G plan was published in April 2019
  • Outdoor 5G deployments will remain above 70% throughout the forecast period

• OPEN VIRTUAL RAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACCOUNT FOR 95% OF TOTAL 5G RAN UNITS BY 2028
  • The open vRAN ramp up is expected in 2025
  • The 4 service providers pointed out that the availability of the RAN intelligent controller (RIC) is fundamental for the success of open vRAN moving forward
  • Japan's open RAN-based 5G BTS configuration simplifies the counting process, it is site counting
  • Japan's 5G looks like 1 site = 1 CU (including the DU)

JAPAN IS SHOWING THE WORLD WHAT A 5G OPEN VRAN ISLAND LOOKS LIKE...

• OVER THE PAST 2 YEARS, RAKUTEN SYMPHONY QUICKLY EXPANDED AND STARTED TO CONQUER THE WORLD...
  • The telecom world welcomes symworld, the nf app marketplace
  • It was already obvious from the beginiing with its initiatives in the U.S. and Germany that Rakuten Mobile had bigger ambitions than solely acting as Japan's 4th mobile operator.
  • Qualcomm came to the 5G open ran massive mimo rescue
  • AT&T turned to Rakuten Symphony for network planning help
  • Cisco brought its mobile, switching & routing, and automation portfolio to Rakuten Symphony
  • Rakuten Symphony added robin.io to its quiver
  • Rakuten Symphony selected nokia's cloud native software as first symworld partner
  • Perhaps the icing on the cake? Ajit Pai joined the party
  • Lastly, Rakuten Symphony went to africa with MTN

• BUT LAST YEAR, RAKUTEN SYMPHONY'S CONQUEST OF THE WORLD HAS STALLED, HIGH-PROFILE EXECUTIVES DEPARTED
  • At MWC24, the signature of a letter of intent and a memorandum of understanding was the latest sale news we heard

• THIS MOMENTUM MADE FUJITSU AND NEC TOP RU SUPPLIERS AND SI CHAMPIONS BUT THINGS CHANGED IN 2023
  • Since the start of Rakuten Mobile's network buildout in 2H19, Japan's domestic champions Fujitsu and NEC have been busy both at home and in international markets

• KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, AND SOFTBANK ARE ACTIVELY PUSHING THE OPEN RAN AGENDA
  • In February 2022, KDDI successfully turned on the world's first 5G SA open vRAN site
  • In March 2022, NTT docomo adopted the Rakuten Symphony playbook
  • docomo's Shared Open Lab leverages its OREC initiatives
  • At MWC23, docomo rebranded its OREC project OREX
  • At MWC24, docomo and NEC launched OREX SAI
  • At MWC24, SoftBank, NEC and VMware announced that they have jointly verified RAN virtualization by converging telco cloud with an O-RAN architecture

• AND LASTLY, DOCOMO, KDDI, SOFTBANK AND RAKUTEN MOBILE FORMED OTIC TO COMBINE EFFORTS AND ACCELERATE OPEN RAN ADOPTION

2018 WAS THE YEAR JAPAN DECIDED TO SHAKE UP ITS OLIGOPOLISTIC MOBILE MARKET, WHICH KICKED OFF THE OPEN RAN AGENDA

• INFLUENCED BY THE U.S., THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT QUICKLY ADOPTED THE OPEN RAN AGENDA...
• ...AND GIVING INCENTIVES TO FUJITSU AND NEC TO STRENGTHEN THEIR MARKET POSITION
• THE U.S. ALSO ASKED NTT AND NEC TO BE FOUNDING MEMBERS OF THE OPEN RAN POLICY COALITION
• AND NOW THE U.S. AND JAPAN ARE COLLABORATING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS, INCLUDING 6G