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日本无线基础设施（2025 年 4 月）：您好，4G 将在 2024 年主导日本 RAN 市场，但 Open vRAN 已成为现实，势不可挡
市场调查报告书
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日本无线基础设施（2025 年 4 月）：您好，4G 将在 2024 年主导日本 RAN 市场，但 Open vRAN 已成为现实，势不可挡

Japan Wireless Infrastructure Report, April 2025 - Konnichiwa, although 4G Dominated Japan's RAN Activity in 2024, Open vRAN is Real and Ultimately Unstoppable
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 请询问到货日

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简介目录

本报告聚焦在日本无线基础设施市场，分析乐天移动的进入以及日本政府推动Open RAN的影响。该报告计划在 KDDI、NTTdocomo、乐天移动和软银四家电信公司发布各自报告几週后发布。它将收集 2024 年的详细数据，并提供 2025 年的展望以及未来五年 RAN（无线存取网路）市场的预测。该报告包括 4G 和 5G 基地台 (BTS) 数量、RAN 供应商市场占有率和相关分析。

目录

概要

要点

  • 2024 年：从 5G 转向 4G，但这不足以让市场维持成长态势。
  • 4G如此大幅度的成长是意料之外的，但对旅游业来说是一个正面的影响。
  • 由于外汇汇率和 4G 平均售价下降，实际收入比我们的预测低 12%
  • 5G 的投资兴趣仍较低
  • 2024 年，Open RAN BTS 将占所有安装设备的 75%
  • 在这种环境下，爱立信保持了第一的位置，并且市场占有率略有增加。
  • 诺基亚继续缩小与爱立信的差距
  • NEC 和三星并列第三
  • 乐天 Symphony 的表现优于在国内和海外市场都陷入困境的富士通。
  • 儘管向 5G 的转变很大，但预计 2025 年总销量和销售量都将呈下降趋势
  • 开放式虚拟化 RAN 将成为主流，到 2030 年将占所有 5G RAN 单元的 95%

日本向世界展示了 5G 开放 VRAN 岛屿的样子…

  • 在过去三年中，Rakuten Symphony 迅速扩张并开始征服世界。
    • 电信业欢迎 NF 应用市场和 Symworld
    • 乐天移动在美国和德国的努力已经明确表明，该公司的野心远不止成为日本第四大行动营运商。
    • 高通加入 5G Open 竞争，推出 Massive Mimo
    • AT&T 选择 Rakuten Symphony 协助进行网路规划
    • 思科将把其移动、交换和路由以及自动化产品组合引入乐天 Symphony
    • Rakuten Symphony 将 robin.io 加入 Quiver
    • Rakuten Symphony 选择诺基亚云端原生软体作为第一个 Symworld 合作伙伴
    • 当天的亮点是 Ajit Pai 加入聚会。
    • Rakuten Symphony 携手 MTN 进军非洲
    • 在 MWC23 上，乐天推出了其 Symware 2.0 软体。
    • 乐天今年在法国巴黎开设了乐天科技中心。
  • 儘管 2023 年高层将卸任，但乐天 Symphony 的全球统治地位仍将持续
    • 意向书和谅解备忘录在 MWC24 上签署势头强劲
    • 在 MWC25 上发布的其他公告中，Rakuten Symphony 宣布 Airspan、思科和 Tech Mahindra 已成为其 Open RAN 授权计画的首批合作伙伴。
  • 这一势头使富士通和 NEC 成为俄罗斯最大的供应商和 SI 冠军，但这种情况将在 2023 年发生改变
    • 自2019年下半年乐天移动开始建设网路以来，日本巨头富士通和NEC一直在国内外市场忙碌。
    • 这两家日本供应商预计今年将復苏
  • KDDI、NTTdocomo 和软银积极推动开放 RAN 议程
    • KDDI 将于 2022 年 2 月成功推出全球首个 5G SA 开放式 vRAN 站点
    • 2022 年 3 月，NTTdocomo 将采用 Rakuten Symphony 策略
    • Docomo 的共享开放实验室利用了 OREC 计划
    • 在 MWC23 上，docomo 将 OREC 专案更名为 OREX
    • Docomo 和 NEC 在 MWC24 上推出 OREX SAI
    • 自此以后，OREX SAI 开始获得国际发展动力。
    • 在 MWC24 上，软银、NEC 和 VMware 宣布，他们已透过将电信云与 O-RAN 架构相集成，联合验证了 RAN 虚拟化
    • 但后来 VMware 消失了，而 Red Hat 和 AITRAS 出现了。
    • 儘管转向AI-RAN，软银仍致力于O-RAN，并与爱立信签署谅解备忘录
  • Docomo、KDDI、Softbank 和 Rakuten Mobile 合作成立 OTIC，以加速 Open RAN 的普及

2018 年：日本撼动寡占移动市场并启动 Open RAN 议程的一年

  • 受美国影响，日本政府迅速采取了Open RAN计划
  • 为富士通和 NEC 提供激励措施，以巩固其市场地位
  • 美国也要求 NTT 和 NEC 成为 Open RAN 政策联盟的创始成员
  • 美国和日本正在包括6G在内的多个领域合作。
简介目录

This report focuses on Japan's wireless infrastructure market and analyzes the implications of the introduction of Rakuten Mobile and the Japanese government's open RAN push. The publication date is scheduled a few weeks after the 4 services providers: KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, Rakuten Mobile, and Softbank, provide their reports so that we can gather many details about 2024 and provide 2025 outlook and a 5-year RAN forecast. This report includes 4G and 5G base station (BTS) numbers and RAN vendor market shares and analysis.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • 2024 SAW A SHIFT FROM 5G TO 4G, BUT IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARKET IN GROWTH TERRITORY
  • We did not expected such a big 4G jump, that's the tourism success effect!
  • A combination of FOREX and low 4G ASP dragged actual sales 12% below our forecast
  • There is still no strong motivation to invest in 5G
  • Open RAN BTS accounted for 75% of total units deployed in 2024
  • In this context, Ericsson stayed #1 and slightly increased its share
  • Nokia continued to close the gap with Ericsson
  • For third spot, NEC and Samsung are neck and neck
  • Rakuten Symphony moved ahead of Fujitsu, which had a bad year in both its domestic and international markets
  • DESPITE A MAJOR SHIFT TO 5G, 2025 IS LOOKING DOWN FOR BOTH TOTAL UNITS AND SALES
    • After the surge, we expect a steep decline in 4G units
    • Conversely, 5G units should grow this year, followed by a surge in 2027
    • The MIC's roadmad remains in effect through the end of the year
    • Propelled by 5G, the RAN market will peak in 2027 and then fall again
    • Outdoor 5G deployments will remain above 70% throughout the forecast period
  • OPEN VIRTUAL RAN IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR 95% OF TOTAL 5G RAN UNITS BY 2030
    • The open vRAN ramp up is expected this year
    • The 4 service providers pointed out that the availability of the RAN intelligent controller (RIC) is fundamental for the success of open vRAN moving forward
    • Japan's open RAN-based 5G BTS configuration simplifies the counting process, it is site counting
    • Japan's 5G looks like 1 site = 1 CU (including the DU)

JAPAN IS SHOWING THE WORLD WHAT A 5G OPEN VRAN ISLAND LOOKS LIKE...

  • OVER THE PAST 3 YEARS, RAKUTEN SYMPHONY QUICKLY EXPANDED AND STARTED TO CONQUER THE WORLD...
    • The telecom world welcomes Symworld, the NF App marketplace
    • It was already obvious from the beginiing with its initiatives in the U.S. and Germany that Rakuten Mobile had bigger ambitions than solely acting as Japan's 4th mobile operator.
    • Qualcomm came to the 5G open ran massive mimo rescue
    • AT&T turned to Rakuten Symphony for network planning help
    • Cisco brought its mobile, switching & routing, and automation portfolio to Rakuten Symphony
    • Rakuten Symphony added robin.io to its quiver
    • Rakuten Symphony selected Nokia's cloud native software as first Symworld partner
    • Perhaps the icing on the cake? Ajit Pai joined the party
    • Rakuten Symphony went to Africa with MTN
    • At MWC23, Rakuten launched its Symware 2.0 software
    • Lastly, this year, Rakuten established Rakuten Tech Center in Paris, France
  • DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH-PROFILE EXECUTIVES IN 2023, RAKUTEN SYMPHONY'S CONQUEST OF THE WORLD IS CONTINUING
    • At MWC24, the signature of a letter of intent and a memorandum of understanding highlighted the momentum
    • And at MWC25, among many announcements, Rakuten Symphony said that Airspan, Cisco and Tech Mahindra were the first partners for its open RAN licensing program
  • THIS MOMENTUM MADE FUJITSU AND NEC TOP RU SUPPLIERS AND SI CHAMPIONS BUT THINGS CHANGED IN 2023
    • Since the start of Rakuten Mobile's network buildout in 2H19, Japan's domestic champions Fujitsu and NEC have been busy both at home and in international markets
    • However, we expect the 2 Japanese vendors to turn the corner this year
  • KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, AND SOFTBANK ARE ACTIVELY PUSHING THE OPEN RAN AGENDA
    • In February 2022, KDDI successfully turned on the world's first 5G SA open vRAN site
    • In March 2022, NTT docomo adopted the Rakuten Symphony playbook
    • Docomo's Shared Open Lab leverages its OREC initiatives
    • At MWC23, docomo rebranded its OREC project OREX
    • At MWC24, docomo and NEC launched OREX SAI
    • Since, OREX SAI has showed some international momentum
    • At MWC24, SoftBank, NEC and VMware announced that they have jointly verified RAN virtualization by converging telco cloud with an O-RAN architecture
    • But as VMware is gone, then came Red Hat and AITRAS
    • Despite its detour to AI-RAN, Softbank remained committed to O-RAN and signed a MoU with Ericsson
  • AND LASTLY, DOCOMO, KDDI, SOFTBANK AND RAKUTEN MOBILE FORMED OTIC TO COMBINE EFFORTS AND ACCELERATE OPEN RAN ADOPTION

2018 WAS THE YEAR JAPAN DECIDED TO SHAKE UP ITS OLIGOPOLISTIC MOBILE MARKET, WHICH KICKED OFF THE OPEN RAN AGENDA

  • INFLUENCED BY THE U.S., THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT QUICKLY ADOPTED THE OPEN RAN AGENDA...
  • ...AND GIVING INCENTIVES TO FUJITSU AND NEC TO STRENGTHEN THEIR MARKET POSITION
  • THE U.S. ALSO ASKED NTT AND NEC TO BE FOUNDING MEMBERS OF THE OPEN RAN POLICY COALITION
  • AND LASTLY, THE U.S. AND JAPAN ARE COLLABORATING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS, INCLUDING 6G