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RAN自动化:SON，AI，从RIC，及SMO-AI装载SON非即时RIC及SMO的转变即将开始(2025年10月)
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1865917

RAN自动化:SON，AI，从RIC，及SMO-AI装载SON非即时RIC及SMO的转变即将开始(2025年10月)

RAN Automation: SON, AI, RIC, and SMO - The Transition from AI-Powered SON to Non-RT RIC and SMO Has Commenced, October 2025
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 请询问到货日

价格
简介目录

自组织网路 (SON) 演算法由第三代合作伙伴计画 (3GPP) 在 21 世纪初定义，无需人工干预即可自动设定和最佳化行动网路。随着网路处理大量流量并随着多代技术的加入而变得日益复杂，SON 演算法正与机器学习 (ML) 和人工智慧 (AI) 演算法整合。

本报告追踪集中式 SON (C-SON) 软体和服务收入市场，提供市场规模、预测和供应商市场占有率，并分析 C-SON 模组和用例的演进。这些已成为无线接取网路智慧控制器 (RIC) 中的应用，是开放式无线接取网路 (Open RAN) 和开放式虚拟化无线接取网路 (Open Virtualized RAN) 架构的必要元件，并且正在扩展以支援所有类型的无线接取网路。

本报告也追踪了基于 O-RAN 定义的服务管理和编排 (SMO) 市场，并对非即时 RIC 的 rApp 和近实时 RIC 的 xApp 进行了细分。

目录

概要

重要的要点

随着向非即时 RIC 和 SMO 的过渡，AI 赋能的 SON 销售额将在 2024 年达到高峰

  • 全球 SON 软体和服务收入在 2024 年达到峰值，占 RAN 自动化总收入的 91%。
    • 据我们估计，诺基亚将继续在 C-SON 销售市场占有率中保持领先地位。
    • 目前，所有 C-SON 供应商都在努力平衡服务现有客户和向准备采用非即时 RIC 和 SMO 的客户过渡之间的关係。
    • 预计全球 C-SON 市场将在 2025 年下滑。
    • 全球 C-SON 销售呈现长尾模式。
    • C-SON 的销售额从未与行动网路的数量成正比增长。
    • LTE 网路无论是否采用 C-SON 都能成功运行，5G 网路也是如此。 NSA 网路的情况也类似。
    • 自 2010 年推出以来，C-SON 的销售一直举步维艰。
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随着 AT&T 的引领，非即时 RIC、其 RAPP 和 SMO 有望实现强劲成长。

  • 自 2017 年以来，AT&T 一直在推广 ONAP 和开放式 RAN 计画。
  • 然而，在2023年，NTT Docomo在RIC展会上占主导地位。
  • 受地缘政治因素驱动，开放式RAN加速了RIC和SMO的发展。
    • 2021年，基于O-RAN联盟框架开发了RIC和SMO预测模型。
    • 2023年8月，O-RAN联盟公布了其对NIC（RIC的演进版本）的愿景。
  • 因此，包括非即时 RIC 和 RAPPS 在内的 SMO 市场将在 2024 年突破 1 亿美元大关。
    • 爱立信预测，非即时 RIC 将在 2024 年突破 1 亿美元大关。引领 RIC 与 SMO 市场
    • 三星紧追在后
    • 高通在 Verizon 的推动下跃居第三
    • 正如三年前预测的那样，RIC 将在所有 RAN 中部署
    • 与它的前身 C-SON 一样，RIC 需要使用 AI 和 ML 将指令传回 RAN
    • RIC 市场趋势将与 C-SON 的趋势相同
  • 我们的模型预测，非即时 RIC 市场五年复合年增长率将达到 51%
    • 到 2028 年，我们预期 RIC 将占 C-SON 收入和服务的 88%。将以非即时 RIC rApp 的形式出现。
    • xApp 需要等待，因为它们需要产生大量的 RAN 场景来模拟真实世界的事件。
    • 近实时 RIC 市场正在释放先前仅由 RAN 供应商管理的 D-SON 用例。然而，这种情况仍然存在。
    • 通讯服务提供者 (CSP) 对近实时 RIC 有许多疑问。
    • 应用生态系统正在快速成长。
    • 网路优化 rApp 占总数的 67%。
  • 所有这些都在推动所有 RAN 的 SMO 市场发展。
    • SMO 市场将快速成长，并代表最大的商业机会，逐步取代 OSS。
    • 在整个预测期内，亚太地区将是最大的 SMO 市场。
简介目录

Defined by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) at the beginning of this century, SON (self-organizing network) algorithms configure and optimize mobile networks automatically without human interaction. As networks handle vast amounts of traffic and become more and more complex through the addition of several generations, SON algorithms are blended with machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms.

This report tracks the centralized SON (C-SON) software and services revenue market, provides size, forecast and vendor market shares, and analyzes the evolution of C-SON modules and use cases becoming apps in the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) needed in open RAN, open virtual RAN architectures, and expanding to support any types of RAN. This report also tracks the O-RAN defined service management and orchestration (SMO) market and provides a breakdown between non-Real Time RIC rApps and near-Real Time RIC xApps.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

AS THE SHIFT TO NON-RT RIC AND SMO KICKS OFF, AI-POWERED SON SALES PEAKED IN 2024

  • GLOBAL SON SOFTWARE AND SERVICES REVENUE PEAKED IN 2024 AND ACCOUNTED FOR 91% OF TOTAL RAN AUTOMATION SALES
    • Our estimates indicate Nokia continues to lead C-SON sales market shares
    • At this point, every C-SON vendor is juggling between servicing existing customers and migrating those customers ready to adopt non-RT RIC and SMO
    • We forecast the global C-SON market to start its decline in 2025
    • Global C-SON sales will follow a long tail pattern
    • C-SON sales have never grown proportionally to the number of mobile networks
    • Because with or without C-SON, LTE networks are running fine, so are 5G NSA ones
    • Since its debut in 2010, C-SON has always been a tough sell

WITH AT&T BACK IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT, THE NON-RT RIC, ITS RAPPS AND THE SMO ARE POISED FOR STRONG GROWTH

  • SINCE 2017, AT&T HAS BEEN DRIVING THE ONAP AND OPEN RAN EFFORTS
  • BUT NTT DOCOMO STOLE THE RIC SHOW IN 2023
  • FUELED BY GEOPOLITICS, OPEN RAN ACCELERATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIC AND THE SMO
    • In 2021, we developed a RIC and SMO forecast model based on the O-RAN Alliance framework
    • In August 2023, the O-RAN Alliance released a vision of the NIC, the evolution of the RIC
  • AS A RESULT, THE SMO MARKET, INCLUDING NON-RT RIC AND RAPPS, PASSED THE $100M BAR IN 2024
    • Ericsson leads the Non-RT RIC and SMO market...
    • ...followed by Samsung
    • Propelled by Verizon, Qualcomm ranks third
    • As we predicted three years ago, RIC is deployed in any RAN
    • Like its C-SON predecessor, RIC uses AI and ML, and needs to send back instructions to the RAN
    • RIC market developments follow the same pattern as C-SON's
  • OUR MODEL PRODUCED A 51% NON-RT RIC MARKET 5-YEAR CAGR
    • In 2028, we expect 88% of C-SON sales and services to be in the form of a non-RT RIC rApps
    • The xApp will have to wait because the training requires a vast amount of RAN scenarios that can be generated to reproduce real events
    • The Near-Real Time RIC market is unleashing D-SON use cases that until now were proprietary and controlled by the RAN vendors; they still are though!
    • CSPs have plenty of questions about the near-real time RIC
    • The App ecosystem is mushrooming
    • Network optimization rApps accounts for 67% of total
  • ALL THIS DRIVES THE SMO MARKET FOR ANY RAN
    • The SMO market is poised for a rapid ramp up, and will be the largest opportunity as it gradually replaces the OSS
    • Asia Pacific will be the largest SMO market throughout the forecast period