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无线基础设施市场－市场占有率、规模及预测（2025年第三季）
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1876880

无线基础设施市场－市场占有率、规模及预测（2025年第三季）

Wireless Infrastructure Report - Shares, Size & Forecast - 3Q25
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 请询问到货日

价格
简介目录

本报告分析了2025年第三季的全球无线基础设施市场，涵盖2G、3G、4G和5G无线接取网路（RAN）以及核心网路节点。报告提供了2016年至2024年的历史数据、季度市场规模和厂商市场占有率，以及依地区（北美、欧洲、中东和非洲、亚太地区以及加勒比和拉丁美洲）划分的2G/3G/4G/5G RAN（包括开放式虚拟RAN）和核心网（EPC、vEPC和5GC）的详细市场预测，并预测2030年至2030年。历史数据反映了30多家无线基础设施厂商的销售情况，其中包括几家与TERAL RESEARCH分享了机密销售数据的厂商。我们的市场预测是基于一个模型，该模型将无线基础设施供应商的销售数据与过去 20 年的服务提供者网路部署模式以及升级和扩展计划分析相结合。

目录

摘要

主要结论：2025 年第三季证实市场稳定，近期没有復苏迹象

与我们的预测一致，无线基础设施市场趋于稳定

  • 欧洲、中东和非洲地区以及东北亚地区此次支撑了市场
  • 5G 和开放式无线存取网 (Open RAN) 在所有类别中表现最为出色
  • 5G 仍然是长尾市场的一大亮点
    • 我们认为，加速向独立组网 (SA) 过渡是十分必要的。
    • LTE-A 和 VoLTE 升级的潜力依然庞大。
  • 在当前稳定的市场环境下，厂商领先地位维持不变，诺基亚和爱立信的市占率略有成长。
    • 华为和爱立信的无线接取网路（RAN）市占率预计将在2025年第三季均成长1个百分点。
  • 在核心网方面，华为和中兴将合计占45%的市场占有率，而爱立信将继续保持第二的位置。
    • 5G 向独立组网（SA）的漫长而渐进的过渡已经结束，復苏将于2024年第三季开始，并持续到2025年上半年。
    • EPC设计运作良好，因此很难证明向5G核心网过渡的合理性。

准确的预测表明，2024年将是撤资週期的第三年，该週期将于2025年结束。

  • 与4G一样，5G也具有长尾效应。
  • 然而，与以往的週期不同，此次并没有出现新的G系列产品来引发新的投资週期。
    • 5G仍然是一个亮点，但不足以抵消4G的下滑。
    • 我们的模型考虑到4G的下滑，因此设定了较低的基准预测值。
  • 2025年是一个亮点。
    • 北美地区今年将经历最强劲的成长。
    • 5G将达到高峰。其他地区此后将出现温和成长或趋于平稳。

我们的长期无线基础设施市场预测显示，市场将会略为下滑。

  • 目前的情况表明，这种逐步下滑的趋势将持续到下一个十年。
  • 由于中国供应商在某些国家的撤离，促使4G和5G设备的二手市场蓬勃发展，并挤占了其他市场的占有率，这种情况进一步加剧。
    • 随着德国准备移除华为的5G设备，我们预计在2025年至2026年间，新一轮的二手设备将涌入二手市场。
  • 经过两年的停滞，开放式RAN（Open RAN）将于今年开始成长。
    • 地缘政治因素正在推动以爱立信、诺基亚和三星为首的开放式RAN生态系统与传统5G的分离。这将有利于RAN的部署和市场扩张。
  • 亚太地区拥有全球最大的无线网络，仍将是最大的市场。
  • 北美仍将是第二大市场。
  • 欧洲、中东和非洲地区（EMEA）今年将维持成长，之后到2030年将逐渐下滑。
  • 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区（CALA）正在復苏，预计将进一步增长。
简介目录

This report analyzes the 3Q25 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016 to 2024, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through 2030 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including Open vRAN, and core networks (EPC, vEPC, and 5GC), for each region (North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean Latin America). The historical data accounts for the sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructure vendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with TERAL RESEARCH. The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20 years of service provider network rollout pattern analysis, and upgrade and expansion plans.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: 3Q25 CONFIRMS MARKET STABILITY WITH NO UPTICK ANYTIME SOON

AS WE RIGHTLY PREDICTED, THE WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET HAS STABILIZED

  • THIS TIME AROUND, EMEA AND NORTHEAST ASIA SUSTAINED THE MARKET
  • 5G AND OPEN RAN WERE THE BRIGHTEST SPOTS OF ALL CATEGORIES
  • 5G IS AND WILL REMAIN THE BRIGHT SPOT WITH A LONG TAIL
    • Although we maintain our view that a faster migration to 5G SA is greatly desired, we are seeing a pickup
    • The potential for LTE-A and VoLTE upgrades remains phenomenal
  • IN THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE VENDOR LEADERSHIP BOARD REMAINS STATIC; NOKIA AND ERICSSON MANAGED TO SLIGHTLY GAIN SHARE
    • For 3Q25 RAN market share, both Huawei and Ericsson gained 1 percetage point
  • IN CORE NETWORKS, HUAWEI AND ZTE COMBINED COMMAND A 45% MARKET SHARE, ERICSSON REMAINED #2
    • The prolonged slow migration to 5G SA is over, a PICKUP started in 3Q24 and continued in 1H25
    • We did such a good work in designing the EPC that the move to 5G core is hard to justify!

AS RIGHTLY PREDICTED, 2024 WAS THE THIRD YEAR OF THE DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2025 WILL BE UP

  • LIKE 4G, 5G WILL HAVE A LONG TAIL...
  • ...BUT UNLIKE PREVIOUS CYCLES, THERE IS NO NEW G TO CREATE A NEW INVESTMENT CYCLE
    • Although 5G remains the bright spot, it won't be big enough to offset the 4G decline
    • Factoring in the 4G decline, our model produced a lower base forecast
  • 2025 IS LOOKING UP!
    • North America will experience the strongest growth this year
    • Post-5G peak, all other regions will see moderate growth or flatness

OUR LONG-TERM WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECAST POINTS TO A SLIGHT DECLINING TREND

  • Current conditions point to a slowly declining pattern through the end of the decade
  • FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE VIBRANT SECONDHAND MARKET FOR 4G AND 5G EQUIPMENT COMING FROM THE REMOVAL OF THE CHINESE VENDORS IN SPECIFIC COUNTRIES THAT SWAMPS OTHER MARKETS
    • With Germany gearing up to remove Huawei's 5G equipment, we expect another cycle of used kits to flood the secondhand market in 2025-2026
  • AFTER THE 2-YEAR LULL, OPEN RAN WILL START TO RAMP UP THIS YEAR
    • Geopolitics fueled both the open RAN ecosystem and traditional 5G RAN rollouts led by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung
  • HOME TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST WIRELESS NETWORK FOOTPRINTS, ASIA PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST MARKET
  • NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET
  • AFTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, EMEA WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH 2030
  • CALA IS BOUNCING BACK WITH POTENTIAL GROWTH AHEAD