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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1914579
笔记型电脑市场 - 全球产业规模、份额、趋势、机会及预测(按产品类型、萤幕大小、价格范围、应用、分销管道、地区和竞争格局划分),2021-2031年Laptop Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Product Type, By Screen Size, By Price, By Application, By Distribution Channels, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F |
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全球笔记型电脑市场预计将从2025年的2,240.2亿美元成长到2031年的3,328.1亿美元,复合年增长率(CAGR)为6.82%。笔记型电脑是携带式个人电脑设备,采用泡壳设计,将显示器、键盘和触控板整合于一体,使用户能够随时随地高效办公室。这一成长主要得益于灵活混合办公模式的普及和教育系统的数位化,这两者都需要强大的硬体来实现远端连接。此外,企业IT基础设施的强制性更新週期(通常由作业系统生命週期结束计画所驱动)也创造了持续的需求,而这种需求不受消费者偏好变化的影响。根据日本电子情报技术产业协会的数据,这种不断增长的更新换代需求,加上新硬体功能的发布,预计将在2024年推动全球个人电脑销量成长0.4%。
| 市场概览 | |
|---|---|
| 预测期 | 2027-2031 |
| 市场规模:2025年 | 2240.2亿美元 |
| 市场规模:2031年 | 3328.1亿美元 |
| 复合年增长率:2026-2031年 | 6.82% |
| 成长最快的细分市场 | 二合一笔记型电脑 |
| 最大的市场 | 北美洲 |
儘管有这些利多因素,但由于全球供应链的波动,以及地缘政治贸易紧张局势的加剧,市场仍面临严峻挑战。零件供应的波动和跨境关税的征收可能导致成本不确定性,挤压製造商的利润空间,并推高零售价格。因此,成本上升可能会阻碍产品普及,尤其是在价格敏感地区,并减缓市场成长。
企业硬体更新週期,尤其是因 Windows 10 停止支援而引发的更新週期,正成为市场扩张的主要催化剂。随着 2025 年 10 月截止日期的临近,企业 IT 部门正在加速淘汰缺少 Windows 11 升级所需可信任平台模组 (TPM) 2.0 安全晶片的旧设备。这种强制性过渡导致更新周期偏离了正常的折旧免税额计划,并确保了持续的大量采购订单。微软在 2024 年 4 月发布的「2024 财年第三季财务业绩」报告中清晰地展现了这种软体主导需求的财务影响。报告显示,Windows OEM 营收年增 11%,此成长率与商用 PC 品类的强劲表现直接相关。
设备端人工智慧 (AI) 和神经处理单元 (NPU) 的整合是推动笔记型电脑市场变革的第二个关键因素。製造商正在将生成式 AI 工作负载迁移到本机进行处理,而不是在云端处理,从而增强资料隐私、降低延迟并实现离线功能。这种架构演进为高端和商业用户创造了极具吸引力的价值提案,鼓励他们儘早升级到面向未来的硬件,以支持 AI 软体生态系统。主要硬体供应商预计这一趋势将广泛应用。例如,惠普在 2024 年 5 月的「2024 财年第二季财报电话会议」中预测,AI 赋能的 PC 将在该财年下半年占 PC 总出货量的约 10%。此外,联想集团有限公司的智慧设备事业部公布,2024 财年营收达 446 亿美元,显示支持这项技术变革的全球基础设施已相当大规模。
全球供应链不稳定,加上地缘政治贸易紧张局势的加剧,对全球笔记型电脑市场的持续成长构成重大障碍。这种不稳定扰乱了半导体和显示面板等关键零件的稳定供应,导致库存水准波动和生产延误。跨境关税和贸易限制的实施,使得製造商面临采购成本大幅上涨的局面,难以在不损害盈利的情况下消化这些成本。因此,不断上涨的投入成本往往迫使原始设备製造商(OEM)提高零售价格,直接抑制价格敏感地区的需求。
根据IPC的研究,2024年的产业趋势数据显示,59%的全球电子产品製造商表示人事费用和营运成本正在上涨,显示生产生态系统正面临严峻的财务压力。这种通膨压力限制了笔记型电脑品牌在新兴市场的价格竞争力。由于製造商难以应对这些波动的成本结构和零件供应的不确定性,他们面临市场停滞的风险,尤其是在消费者购买力跟不上硬体拥有成本上涨的地区。
向基于 ARM 的处理器架构的过渡,从根本上改变了全球笔记型电脑市场的硬体格局,其核心在于优先考虑能源效率和温度控管,而不是传统的时脉频率。这种结构性转变使製造商能够生产超薄、无风扇且电池续航时间更长的设备,比传统的 x86 配置更能有效地满足现代职场人士对行动办公的迫切需求。主要厂商向这些平台转型后所取得的强劲财务业绩,充分证明了该架构的商业性可行性。特别是,苹果在 2024 年 8 月发布的「2024 财年第三季财务业绩」中报告称,Mac 部门净销售额达 70.1 亿美元,这充分体现了高效能 ARM 运算设备的庞大市场价值和消费者需求。
同时,循环经济原则和永续製造的采用正迅速成为笔记型电脑原始设备製造商 (OEM) 的标准营运要求,而非小众差异化优势。製造商正在彻底重新设计其供应链,将高比例的消费后回收塑胶 (PCR) 和回收金属融入设备机壳,从而有效地将市场成长与新的资源开采脱钩。这种对永续性的策略关注正在推动显着的经济活动,因为企业买家越来越倾向于在其采购组合中强制使用经过生态认证的硬体。例如,惠普公司在其于 2024 年 8 月发布的《2023 年永续影响报告》中揭露,符合特定环境标准的产品和服务所产生的永续收入占其该财年总收入的 60% 以上。
The Global Laptop Market is projected to expand from USD 224.02 Billion in 2025 to USD 332.81 Billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 6.82%. Laptops are defined as portable personal computing devices featuring a clamshell design that integrates a display screen, keyboard, and trackpad into a single unit for mobile productivity. This growth is largely fueled by the permanent shift toward flexible hybrid work models and the digitization of educational systems, both of which require versatile hardware for remote connectivity. Additionally, mandatory refresh cycles within corporate IT infrastructures, often triggered by operating system end-of-life schedules, generate sustained demand independent of consumer preference shifts. Data from the Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association indicates that in 2024, global personal computer sales were projected to rise by 0.4% as these replacement demands intensified alongside the release of new hardware capabilities.
| Market Overview | |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2027-2031 |
| Market Size 2025 | USD 224.02 Billion |
| Market Size 2031 | USD 332.81 Billion |
| CAGR 2026-2031 | 6.82% |
| Fastest Growing Segment | 2-in-1 Laptop |
| Largest Market | North America |
Despite these positive drivers, the market faces a significant challenge due to the volatility of global supply chains, which is exacerbated by geopolitical trade tensions. The resulting fluctuation in component availability and the implementation of cross-border tariffs introduce cost uncertainties that can compress manufacturer margins and increase retail prices. Consequently, these factors risk stalling growth, particularly in price-sensitive regions where higher costs may deter adoption.
Market Driver
Corporate hardware refresh cycles, particularly those driven by the upcoming expiration of Windows 10 support, act as a primary catalyst for market volume. As the October 2025 deadline approaches, enterprise IT departments are accelerating the retirement of legacy devices that lack the Trusted Platform Module (TPM) 2.0 security chips necessary for Windows 11 upgrades. This mandatory transition enforces a replacement cadence distinct from standard depreciation schedules, ensuring consistent bulk procurement orders. The financial impact of this software-driven demand is highlighted by Microsoft Corporation's April 2024 'Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Release,' which reported an 11% year-over-year increase in Windows OEM revenue, a growth rate directly linked to the strengthening performance of the commercial PC category.
The integration of on-device artificial intelligence and Neural Processing Units (NPUs) represents a second critical driver transforming the laptop landscape. Manufacturers are shifting toward computers that process generative AI workloads locally rather than in the cloud, providing enhanced data privacy, reduced latency, and offline capabilities. This architectural evolution creates a compelling value proposition for premium and commercial users, encouraging early upgrades to future-proof hardware for AI-enabled software ecosystems. Leading hardware vendors anticipate significant adoption; for instance, HP Inc. projected in its May 2024 'Second Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Conference Call' that AI PCs would account for approximately 10% of their total PC shipments in the second half of the fiscal year. Furthermore, Lenovo Group Limited's Intelligent Devices Group reported 2024 annual revenue of US$44.6 billion, demonstrating the massive global infrastructure ready for this technological transition.
Market Challenge
The volatility of global supply chains, worsened by geopolitical trade tensions, creates a substantial barrier to the sustained growth of the Global Laptop Market. This instability disrupts the predictable flow of critical components, such as semiconductors and display panels, leading to erratic inventory levels and unavoidable production delays. When cross-border tariffs or trade restrictions are imposed, manufacturers face sudden increases in procurement expenses that are difficult to absorb without damaging profitability. Consequently, these elevated input costs often compel Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to raise retail prices, which directly suppresses demand in price-sensitive regions.
According to IPC, industry sentiment data in 2024 indicated that 59% of global electronics manufacturers reported experiencing rising labor and operational costs, underscoring the severe financial strain on the production ecosystem. This inflationary pressure restricts the ability of laptop brands to offer competitive pricing in emerging markets. As manufacturers struggle with these fluctuating cost structures and uncertain component availability, the market faces a risk of stagnation, particularly where consumer purchasing power cannot keep pace with the rising cost of hardware ownership.
Market Trends
The transition to ARM-based processor architectures is fundamentally altering the hardware landscape of the Global Laptop Market by prioritizing energy efficiency and thermal management over traditional raw clock speeds. This structural shift allows manufacturers to produce ultra-slim, fanless devices with extended battery life, addressing the critical mobility needs of modern workforces more effectively than legacy x86 configurations. The commercial viability of this architecture is evident in the robust financial performance of leading vendors who have pivoted to these platforms; notably, Apple Inc. reported Mac segment net sales of $7.01 billion in its 'Fiscal Year 2024 Third Quarter Results' from August 2024, underscoring the substantial market value and consumer demand for high-performance ARM-based computing devices.
Simultaneously, the adoption of circular economy principles and sustainable manufacturing is rapidly becoming a standard operational requirement rather than a niche differentiator for laptop OEMs. Manufacturers are rigorously reengineering supply chains to integrate high percentages of post-consumer recycled (PCR) plastics and reclaimed metals into device chassis, effectively decoupling market growth from virgin resource extraction. This strategic focus on sustainability is driving significant economic activity, as corporate buyers increasingly mandate eco-certified hardware for their procurement portfolios. For example, HP Inc. disclosed in its August 2024 '2023 Sustainable Impact Report' that sustainable revenue, generated from products and services meeting specific environmental criteria, accounted for over 60% of its total revenue for the fiscal year.
Report Scope
In this report, the Global Laptop Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:
Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Laptop Market.
Global Laptop Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report: