从防损到防损侦测：电脑视觉、RFID 和人工智慧重新定义零售损耗

本报告详细阐述了零售商如何对其防损解决方案进行现代化改造，以更有效地防止损耗，同时应对不断变化的购物习惯、日益普及的自助服务解决方案以及传统系统带来的挑战。其核心挑战在于如何在满足客户体验和无缝购物需求的同时，应对每年数十亿美元的损失。报告重点介绍了人工智慧和电脑视觉技术的进步，以及 RFID 在零售业的扩展，这些是支援下一代防损解决方案的关键技术趋势。

本报告分析了与防损相关的关键策略、技术和营运挑战。 VDC 对多家防损 (LP) 解决方案供应商进行了深入访谈，并对北美和欧洲的 180 家零售商进行了调查。本报告探讨了 RFID、人工智慧、电脑视觉/视讯监控和电子商品防盗系统 (EAS) 等技术的演进和整合情况，以及零售商的投资和绩效预期。

本报告探讨的关键问题：

• 目前零售业的损耗现况如何？零售商应对损耗的有效性如何？从零售商的角度来看，未来两年他们的投资重​​点是什么？不同产业（例如服装、电子产品和食品杂货）的投资重点有何不同？防损解决方案如何改善顾客的购物体验？
• 目前领先的和新兴的防损技术有哪些？它们的优势和劣势是什么？这些技术如何应用于不同的门市模式和产品类别？防损解决方案除了防损之外还能提供哪些价值？
• 未来两年零售商的投资重点是什么？不同零售领域的投资重点有何不同？零售商如何平衡顾客体验与防损科技投资之间的关係？
• 自助服务的兴起如何影响损耗？成功的零售商如何将自助服务和防损措施结合？
• 库存可见度的提升如何影响零售商的防损策略？零售商如何利用近期在RFID技术方面的投资来提高防损效率？

刊载组织:

摘要整理

在北美和欧洲，零售业的门市损耗和店内攻击事件发生率仍居高不下。儘管零售决策者已经制定了各种策略来最有效地减少这些损耗事件，但许多投资却适得其反，严重影响了购物体验。然而，目前的情况是，我们能够更准确地了解事实。例如，目前正在努力利用日益普及的RFID解决方案作为取证工具，以调查和分析损失模式，并减少内部和外部因素造成的损失。本报告探讨了在有组织犯罪日益猖獗、自助服务解决方案不断扩展以及消费者购物行为不断变化的背景下，零售业损失的现状。报告还分析了零售商如何调整策略并优先考虑技术投资，以增强监控能力、消除客户购物体验中的障碍，并最终减少损失。

根据VDC的一项调查，2024年零售商的平均损耗率（占销售额的百分比）将达到2%，其中便利商店/药局和食品杂货店/超市的损耗率尤其高。然而，零售商预测到2025年，平均损耗率将显着下降至1.7%。考虑到2024年美国零售额约为5.25兆美元，这一降幅相当于利润增加约158亿美元。2025 年的预算平均成长了 6.9%。虽然这一增长很可能是由于对防损技术的投资增加，但多种因素也发挥了作用，包括防损技术体系的演进、购买行为的改变以及政策的调整。

随着人工智慧和电脑视觉技术的创新、成熟和广泛应用，防损技术体係正在被重新定义。电子商品防盗系统 (EAS) 与视讯系统的整合也日益普及，将警报与产品和店内位置资讯关联起来，从而加快事件处理速度。此外，RFID 在服装和家居用品等行业的日益普及，开启了新的应用领域，尤其是在即时了解库存状态和分析损失模式方面，RFID 可作为资料来源。事实上，超过九成的零售商表示，即时库存可见度（例如透过 RFID）对于支援其防损策略至关重要或非常重要。

目录

执行

摘要钥匙

调查结果

损失预防的演进

• 零售业者所面临的课题
  • 零售业者的技术开发
  • 损失和库存的即时视觉化
  • 防止买卖损失的演进

现今零售环境下的防损

• 当前零售商技术与营运发展
• 防损与损失侦测
• 损失检测作为零售商的关键组成部分
• 损失策略：损失资讯和追回
• 损失策略
• 面临的挑战零售商

自助服务对防损的影响

• 自助服务门市的采用与损失
• 零售商应对自助服务门市损耗的措施
• 影响门市防损的技术限制

  防损技术概览

  • 基于视讯和人工智慧的防损解决方案
  • 基于RFID的防损解
  • RFID作为电子产品
  • 监控RFID和自助结帐
  • RFID和RF标籤选项
  • RFID和退货管理
  • RFID在服饰和其他零售业的应用
  • RFID和RF在非服饰零售业的应用
  • 其他防损技术
    • 人脸辨识
    • Digimark
    • 防损系统设计
      • 以客户为中心的设计
      • 介入体验设计
      • 云和边缘处理
      • 软体

    竞争格局与供应商简介：

    Ai-Fi Amazon Go Axis Communications Checklens Checkpoint Cognitiwe EasyFlow/ScanWatch Edgify Everseen Gatekeeper Systems

    Grabit iRetailCheck Malong Technologies Mojix Nedap RocketBoots SeeChange Sensormatic Retail Solutions

    Signatrix Standard AI SML Group Limited Supersmart Trigo Retail Walmart Zippin

    报告附录

    使用 Excel 资料集/VDC 的零售商调查

Inside This Report

This report details how retailers are modernizing their loss prevention solutions to more effectively prevent shrink while facing shifting shopping habits, greater adoption of self-service solutions and ongoing challenges with legacy solutions. At the heart of this is finding balance between customer experience and the shopping journey and the need to counter increasing levels of loss that cost retailers billions of dollars in revenue each year. Advances in AI and computer vision technologies and the expanding footprint of RFID in retail are among the key technology trends researched to support next-generation loss prevention solutions.

This in-depth report analyzes key strategic issues, both technological and operational, regarding loss prevention. VDC's research entailed detailed discussions with dozens of LP solution providers, plus a dedicated survey fielded among loss prevention technology decision makers across 180 retailers in North America and Europe. The report discusses ways in which RFID, artificial intelligence, computer vision / video monitoring, electronic article surveillance, and more technologies are advancing and being integrated, and retailers' expectations for investments and results.

What Questions are Addressed?

• What is the state of loss in retail today and how effective are retailers at addressing loss? From the retailer's perspective, what will their investment priorities be in the next two years? How does this differ by retail segment, such as apparel versus electronics versus grocery? In what ways are loss prevention solutions improving customers' shopping experiences?
• What are the leading and emerging loss prevention technologies and the strengths and weaknesses of each? How do these technologies align by store format and merchandise? What do loss prevention solutions do beyond loss prevention?
• From the retailer's perspective, what will their investment priorities be in the next two years? How does this differ by retail segment? How are retailers balancing customer experiences with loss prevention technology investments?
• What is the impact of self-service on shrink and how are successful retailers integrating loss with self- service solutions?
• How are improvements to inventory visibility impacting retailer loss prevention strategies and how are retailers leveraging recent RFID investments to better address loss?

Who Should Read this Report?

• Types of companies: Loss Prevention solution providers, POS hardware and software vendors, retail systems integrators, top tier retailers, retail industry trade associations and standard setters.
• Product Management, Directors of Strategy and Research, Marketing Communications professionals
• Corporate development and merger and acquisition professionals seeking a comprehensive understanding of the landscape of loss prevention
• Strategic Aliance and Channel Development managers

Organizations Covered in this Report:

Executive Summary

Retail shrink and in-store violence levels remain elevated across most store formats throughout North America and Europe. While retail decision maker strategies on how to best address shrink have evolved, many investments have backfired and significantly eroded the shopper experience. What has improved is retailers' ability to more accurately measure events; for example, by leveraging increasingly ubiquitous RFID solutions as a forensics tool to investigate patterns and deter internal and external loss. This research report is designed to measure the state of loss in retail today in the wake of heightened organized crime, expansive self-service solution deployment and shifting shopping habits and assess how retailers are evolving their approach and technology investment priorities to enhance monitoring capabilities, eliminate shopper friction while ultimately reducing shrink. Backed by a dedicated survey conducted among retail loss prevention decision makers across multiple retail categories and in-depth interviews with leading and emerging solution providers, the report addresses the key factors shaping this market moving forward.

According to VDC's research, in 2024 retailers incurred an average of 2% of shrink (as measured as a percentage of retail sales) with convenience/pharmacies and grocery/supermarket the leading retail segments. For 2025, however, retailers are projecting a substantial drop in shrink with average anticipated losses of 1.7%. Considering average US retail sales of $5.25 trillion in 2024, this drop represents a $15.8 billion benefit to retailers. While this is potentially a byproduct of increased loss prevention technology investments - 2025 budgets increased by an average of 6.9% - other contributing factors include the evolving loss prevention technology stack, retailers adapting to changes to shopping habits and policy shifts.

AI and computer vision innovation and advances with more mature solutions and those in the process of scaling are redefining the loss prevention technology stack. EAS and video integrations are becoming more commonplace, tying alarms to product and location to accelerate case resolution. In addition, RFID's scaling footprint in segments like apparel and general merchandise is opening the door to new applications such as its use to provide the definitive inventory ground truth and its utility to investigate patterns. In fact, over nine in ten retailers agreed that real-time inventory visibility (provided by solutions like RFID) was extremely or somewhat important to support loss prevention strategies.

Key Findings:

• Retailers address self-service vulnerability and retrench self-checkout policies. With growing labor cost and availability challenges, retailers are increasingly turning to self-service solutions to support customers. Over 60% of retail research respondents acknowledge that they currently have or plan to implement self-service solutions. However, just over 30% of retailers claim that self-service solutions (such as self-checkout) have had a significant or severe impact on shrink levels. Leading issues with self-checkout solutions include label switching (24.5%) and hiding one item behind another (23.8%). To address self-checkout impacted shrink, retailers are turning to computer vision and AI solutions to better detect missed scans and to visually confirm item identity. Leading retailers are pairing policy (item limits) with vision-assisted exception handling.
• Returns fraud is a major challenge for retailers and in many ways the new battlefield. Approximately 15% of returns are fraudulent (with online returns a greater issue). Thus, omni-channel returns and BORIS/BOPIS workflows becoming an increasingly critical loss prevention consideration.
• Labor shortages accelerating self-service investments; however, limiting retailer loss prevention goals. Almost one in four retailers agree that labor shortages have had a significant and/or a severe impact preventing loss prevention. In fact, retailers cite employee training and awareness programs and customer engagement tactics as among the most effective loss prevention measures. To counter labor challenges, retailers have turned to increased loss prevention technology investments and re- focusing staff at higher rick times and locations.
• Leading loss contributors are varied, requiring a multi-faceted approach by retailers to address. The top three contributors to inventory shrink include administrative/process errors (23.0%), opportunistic shoplifting (21.7%) and employee theft (20.4%). It is noteworthy that organized retail crime is not a "top three" rated contributor.
• RFID's retail value proposition continues to evolve and is becoming the source of truth supporting monitoring and loss detection solutions. Inventory visibility and accuracy remain a key challenge for retailers with more than three in ten retailers claiming moderately accurate, slightly accurate or inaccurate inventory visibility. RFID has become the de facto technology retailers turn to for greater (real time) in-store inventory visibility and over nine in ten agree that there is strong value integrating RFID inventory management solutions with loss prevention platforms.

Table of Contents

Executive

Summary Key

Findings

The Evolution of Loss Prevention

• Challenges Faced by Retailers
  • Retailers' Technology Developments
  • Real-Time Visibility of Losses and Inventory
  • The Evolution of Buying and Selling Loss Prevention

Loss Prevention in the Current Retail Environment

• Current Retailer Technology and Operational Developments
• Loss Prevention versus Loss Detection
• Loss Detection as a Critical Component of Retailers'
• Loss Strategies Loss Intelligence and Recovery
• Loss Strategies
• Challenges Faced by Retailers

The Impact of Self-Service on Loss Prevention

• SCO Implementation and Loss
• Retailers' Countermeasures to SCO Shrink
• Technical Limitations Impacting LP for SCO

The Current Landscape of Loss Prevention Technologies

• Video- and Artificial Intelligence-Based Loss Prevention Solutions
• RFID-Based Loss Prevention Solutions
  • RFID as Electronic Article
  • Surveillance RFID and Self-Checkout
  • RFID and RF Tag Options
  • RFID and Returns Management
  • RFID for Apparel and Other Retail Segments
  • RFID and RF for Retail Segments other than Apparel
• Additional LP Technologies
  • Facial recognition
  • Digimarc
• LP System Design
  • Design for Customer
  • Experience Design for Intervention
  • Cloud versus Edge Processing
  • Software

Competitive Landscape and Vendor Profiles:

Report Exhibits

• Exhibit 1: The Cost of Loss: Loss as a Percent of Retail Sales
• Exhibit 2: Retailer Investment Priorities for Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 3: How Will Retailers Change Their Loss Prevention Strategies?
• Exhibit 4: The Importance of Real-time Inventory Visibility
• Exhibit 5: Current Inventory Visibility
• Exhibit 6: Largest Sources of Loss
• Exhibit 7: The Impact of Labor Shortages on Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 8: 2024 Budget Allocations for Loss Prevention Technologies
• Exhibit 9: 2025 Changes to Budget Allocations for Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 10: RFID Reader Form Factors and Locations
• Exhibit 11: Self-Checkout Implementation and Loss
• Exhibit 12: Current Countermeasures to SCO Shrink
• Exhibit 13: Effectiveness of Loss Prevention Measures
• Exhibit 14: Retailer Reasons for Adopting RFID
• Exhibit 15: The Value of Integrating RFID with Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 16: The Benefits of Integrating RFID with Loss Prevention Solutions
• Exhibit 17: Integration of RFID with Electronic Article Surveillance
• Exhibit 18: The Impact of Loss Prevention on Customers' Experiences

Excel Dataset Exhibits / VDC Survey of Retailers

Responses to the following survey questions, cross-tabulated by 7 retail segments (apparel, convenience, department, electronics, grocery, general merchandise and specialty:

• 1. On a scale of 1 (Not a priority) to 5 (Critical priority), how would you rate the priority of investing in each of the following loss prevention technologies for your organization in the next 1-2 years?
• 2. Which of the following loss prevention solutions have you already implemented, and which do you plan to implement in your stores?
• 3. How effective have the following loss prevention measures been for your organization in reducing theft and shrink? (Rate each on a 5-point scale: 1 = Not effective, 5 = Very effective, or mark "Not used" if not applicable.)
• 4. How effective is your organization at addressing retail loss/shrink?
• 5. Looking ahead, do you anticipate making any significant changes to your loss prevention strategy in the next 1-2 years? (multiselect)
• 6. To what extent have labor shortages or staffing constraints affected your ability to prevent losses in stores?
• 7. Which approaches are you using to maintain loss prevention coverage despite staffing shortages? (multiselect)
• 8. What impact does your organization's LP strategy have on customer experience/convenience?
• 9. Approximately what percent of retail inventory was lost to shrink in 2024 (measured as a percent of retail sales)?
• 10. Approximately what percent of retail inventory do you estimate will be lost to shrink in 2025 (measured as a percent of retail sales)?
• 11. Which of the following do you perceive as the largest contributors to shrink (losses) in your organization over the past year? (multiselect)
• 12. Considering your organization's overall retail technology budget, what share was attributed to loss prevention technology investments in 2024?
• 13. Relative to 2024, is your organization's LP budget increasing, decreasing or staying the same in 2025?
• 14. Does your organization currently support self-checkout solutions (such as SCO lanes, personal shopping devices, smart carts, etc.)?
• 15. How have self-checkout solutions affected your store's shrink levels and theft incidents?
• 16. What specific loss prevention challenges have you encountered with self-checkout or other self-service models? (multiselect)
• 17. How is your organization addressing self-checkout loss/shrink issues? (multiselect)
• 18. How important is real-time inventory visibility and accuracy to support your LP strategies?
• 19. How would you describe your organization's current in-store inventory visibility?
• 20. Does your organization currently use item-level RFID solutions to support greater in-store inventory visibility?
• 21. What are your organization's primary RFID investment drivers? (multiselect)
• 22. Do you see value in integrating RFID inventory management solutions with LP platforms to provide greater visibility into shrink and theft events?
• 23. Is your organization currently leveraging RFID investments/solutions to support LP strategies?
• 24. How/where is RFID tagged merchandise currently being read and how do you plan to read RFID tagged merchandise currently? (multiselect)
• 25. How/where is RFID tagged merchandise currently being read and how do you plan to read RFID tagged merchandise over the next 24 months? (multiselect)
• 26. What are the leading benefits of combining RFID-enabled inventory visibility with LP solutions? (multiselect)
• 27. What are your views on RFID relative to EAS (electronic article surveillance) solutions? (multiselect)