行动的未来：从行动即服务到生活方式即服务的转变

全球共享行动市场的收入机会价值 2.5 万亿美元，考虑到公共交通等传统行动模式，以及未来十年将出现的自主和未来行动模式，预计将超过这一数字。

本报告研究和分析全球共享行动，提供关键的商业模式、趋势和增长机会。

内容

战略要务

• 为什么增长变得越来越困难？
• 战略要务 8 (TM)
• 三大战略要务对未来行动的影响
• 增长机会推动增长管道引擎 (TM)

增长机会分析

• 增长驱动力
• 抑制增长的因素
• 行动需求的变化影响行动方式
• 到 2040 年推动行动行为发生变化的三大支柱
• 行为变化1：人口向郊区迁移
• 行为变化 2：对主动交通的偏好
• 城市基础设施的变化 1：城市干预
• 城市基础设施的变化 2：交通枢纽的引入
• 技术变革一：4G/5G技术渗透
• 技术变革 2：用于车队管理的智能 ML 和 AI 技术

共享行动：当前的商业模式

• 共享行动：今天和 2040 年
• 城市转换：15分钟城市
• 大流行后的员工流动需求
• 共享行动的主要商业模式和趋势

共享行动：未来的商业模式

• 未来的共享行动业务模式
• 未来共享行动业务模式：时间表
• 未来的共享行动业务模式
• 未来共享行动模式 1：自动班车
• 未来共享行动模式 2：Robotaxi
• 未来共享行动模式 3：自主模块化运输
• 未来共享行动模式 4：eVTOL
• 未来共享行动模式 5：磁悬浮
• 未来共享行动模式 6：自主微型行动
• 未来共享行动模式 7：超级高铁
• 未来共享行动模式 8：亚轨道行动

流动性支柱的融合

• 五层汇聚
• 基础设施集成
• 技术融合
• 利益相关者趋同
• Super MaaS 应用服务的融合
• 生活方式选择和移动性的融合

2040 年城市愿景

• 未来城市愿景 2040
• 未来城市行动操作系统

增长机会领域

• 增长机会 1：数据传输/共享协议的标准化
• 增长机会 2：扩大生态系统以吸引社区利益相关者
• 增长机会 3：来自 AI 和 VR 的辅助收入流

Visionary Perspective on Rapid Multimodal Transportation Until 2040

Driven by behavioral, city-related, or technologies trends, shared mobility is set to generate several opportunities.

Technology has changed the way people move from point A to point B, over the last decade. Transportation services have become more connected and shareable with the rise of platform apps. Over the next decade, this technology-led transformation will bring about profound changes in how people commute or travel.

The overall revenue opportunity from the shared mobility market is expected to be exceed 2.5 trillion, taking into consideration traditional mobility modes including public transport and autonomous and futuristic mobility modes that we are likely to see in the next decade. Mobility is going to change-in the form of vehicles, in the form of new infrastructure, and in the form of value-added services which we will experience. While journey in the future is expected to become more connected, it is set to get more personalized as well. Consumers want more accurate and tailor-made experiences in the digital space. Just as eCommerce companies have been able to analyze vast volumes of shopping data to generate suggestions and offer discounts, the mobility space is also looking to harness this data to create a more personalized travelling experience.

In this research service, Frost & Sullivan analyzes key business models that are likely to to shape the shared mobility market until 2040. We have looked at how various parameters, such as technology, services, and stakeholders, have to come together to help cities achieve the future they envisioned. The growth opportunities are numerous and ever changing; this study documents the most important growth opportunities in the shared mobility space.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Future of Mobility
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Changing Mobility Demand to Influence Mobility Modes
• 3 Pillars that will Drive Change in Mobility Behavior Until 2040
• Behavioral Changes 1: Population Movement to Suburbs
• Behavioral Changes 2: Preference for Active Modes of Travel
• City Infrastructure Changes 1: City Interventions
• City Infrastructure Changes 2: Mobility Hubs Pilot
• Technology Changes 1: Penetration of 4G/5G Technologies
• Technology Changes 2: Intelligent ML and AI Technologies for Fleet Management

Shared Mobility: Current Business Models

• Shared Mobility: Now vs. 2040
• City Landscape Changing: 15-minute City
• Post-pandemic Mobility Needs of Employees
• Top Shared Mobility Business Models and Trends

Shared Mobility: Future Business Models

• Future Shared Mobility Business Models
• Future Shared Mobility Business Models: Timelines
• Future Shared Mobility Business Models,
• Future Shared Mobility Model 1: Autonomous Shuttles
• Future Shared Mobility Model 2: Robotaxis
• Future Shared Mobility Model 3: Autonomous Modular Transport
• Future Shared Mobility Model 4: eVTOL
• Future Shared Mobility Model 5: Maglev
• Future Shared Mobility Model 6: Autonomous Micromobility
• Future Shared Mobility Model 7: Hyperloop
• Future Shared Mobility Model 8: Suborbital Travel

Convergence of Mobility Pillars

• 5 Layers of Convergence
• Convergence of Infrastructure
• Convergence of Technologies
• Convergence of Stakeholders
• Convergence of Services through a Super MaaS App
• Convergence of Lifestyle Choices and Mobility

Vision 2040 City

• Vision 2040 of a Future City
• Mobility Operating Systems of a Future City

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Standardization of Data Transfer/Sharing Protocols
• Growth Opportunity 1: Standardization of Data Transfer/Sharing Protocols (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2: Expansion of Ecosystem to Appeal to Adjacent Stakeholders
• Growth Opportunity 2: Expansion of Ecosystem to Appeal to Adjacent Stakeholders (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3: Ancillary Revenue Streams from AI and VR
• Growth Opportunity 3: Ancillary Revenue Streams from AI and VR (continued)
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer