透过经济、地缘政治和商业风险和转型实现繁荣

策略多元化、数位转型和情境规划是增强韧性和降低风险的关键

公司越来越需要规划与快速变化的宏观经济动态和风险状况相关的业务场景。保持领先地位需要广泛的情境规划和对不断变化的风险状况的敏捷反应，包括经济、地缘政治、技术、气候变迁以及劳动力和人力资本风险。

此思想领袖分析评估了 2024-2025 年执行长及其领导团队面临的首要风险，其中经济和地缘政治风险在风险格局中占主导地位。在经济风险方面，跨国地缘政治衝突可能加剧通膨压力，并导致央行降息计画脱轨。贸易方面，美国提高了对中国的关税。中美贸易战升级的风险可能会扰乱贸易流动并增加最终消费者的成本。如果主要半导体生产商台湾或韩国捲入地缘政治衝突，全球供应链和半导体生产可能会面临压力。在技​​术方面，生成式人工智慧已成为实现效率和产出最大化的强大技术。公司还需要保护自己免受与生成人工智慧相关的违规行为的影响。

该分析根据以下参数对 23 种全球风险进行定性和定量评估：对全球经济的影响、可能性和影响时间线，从而产生全球风险领域的风险评分。此分析的结果被编译成全球风险热图，使公司能够立即识别其产品线和市场的高风险。分析也概述了2024年至2025年全球前五名风险的事前风险缓解和事后风险应对措施。有效应对这些风险和转型的公司将在颠覆时期获得竞争优势。

目录

策略要务

• 为什么成长如此困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 关键策略要务措施对全球商业环境的影响
• 成长机会推动Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）

成长机会分析

• 生长促进和抑制因子

2024-2025年风险展望

• 通用风险图
• 经济风险驱动因素
• 地缘政治风险—驱动因素
• 技术、劳动力和人力资本风险 - 驱动因素
• 环境/气候变迁风险 - 驱动因素
• 风险影响、可能性和时间表摘要
• 风险评分
• 风险排名及评分摘要

全球 5 大风险 - 影响与风险应对力

• 通膨衝击的反覆出现－影响和风险应对力
• 贸易和供应链中断的反覆发生—影响和风险应对力
• 以色列与哈马斯战争升级为中东战争—影响与风险应对力
• 中美贸易战愈演愈烈－影响及应对力
• 全球经济衰退 - 影响与风险应对力

成长机会宇宙

• 成长机会 1：生产与供应链多元化，开拓新市场
• 成长机会2：技术转型
• 成长机会三：产品系列多元化与策略重组
• 免责声明

Strategic Diversification, Digital Transformation, and Scenario Planning are Key to Resilience Building and Risk Mitigation

Companies need to increasingly plan for business scenarios tied to fast-changing macroeconomic dynamics and risk conditions. Staying ahead of the curve requires extensive scenario planning and nimble responses to evolving risk conditions, such as economic, geopolitical, technological, climate change, and labor and human capital risks.

This thought leadership analysis evaluates the top risks CEOs and their leadership teams should prepare for in 2024-25, with economic and geopolitical risks dominating the risk landscape. In terms of economic risks, further cross-border geopolitical flare-ups could fuel inflationary pressures, derailing central bank interest rate cut plans. On the trade front, the United States has raised tariffs against China. The looming risk of an intensifying US-China trade war could disrupt trade flows and drive up costs for end consumers. Global supply chains and semiconductor production could come under pressure in case of geopolitical conflicts involving Taiwan or South Korea, major semiconductor producers. On the technological front, generative AI has become a go-to technology for efficiency and output maximization. Companies also need to secure themselves against generative AI-linked breaches.

The analysis qualitatively and quantitatively evaluates 23 global risks based on the parameters of global economic impact, likelihood, and impact timelines, with risk scores generated for the global risk universe. The findings of this exercise have been encapsulated in a global risk heatmap, enabling companies to immediately identify high risks to product lines and markets. The analysis also outlines pre-risk mitigation and post-risk responsiveness measures for the top 5 global risks from 2024-25. Companies that effectively plan for these risks and transformations are poised to gain a competitive edge during disruptive times.

Key Issues Addressed

• What is the risk universe for 2024-25 and what are the factors driving these risks?
• Which are the top 5 risks businesses need to prepare for to thrive?
• How does the economic impact of delayed rate cuts compare to a US-China trade war escalation?
• What is the risk score of a potential China invasion of Taiwan against that of a global recession?
• Does the risk score of technological risks outperform that of climate change risks?
• How should businesses navigate emerging global risks?
• What risk mitigation strategies should businesses deploy to counter economic risks?
• What growth opportunities should businesses capitalize on as the risk landscape evolves?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global Business Environment
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Growth Drivers and Restraints

2024-2025 Risks Outlook

• Universal Risk Mapping
• Economic Risks-Driving Factors
• Geopolitical Risks-Driving Factors
• Technological and Labor and Human Capital Risks-Driving Factors
• Environmental and Climate Change Risks-Driving Factors
• Risk Impact, Probability, and Timeline Summary
• Risk Scoring
• Risk Ranking and Score Summary

Top 5 Global Risks- Impact and Risk Responsiveness

• Recurring Inflationary Shocks-Impact and Risk Responsiveness
• Recurring Trade and Supply Chain Disruptions-Impact and Risk Responsiveness
• Israel-Hamas War Escalation into a Middle East War-Impact and Risk Responsiveness
• US-China Trade War Intensification-Impact and Risk Responsiveness
• Global Recession-Impact and Risk Responsiveness

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Production and Supply Chain Diversification to Newer Go-to Markets
• Growth Opportunity 2: Technological Transformation
• Growth Opportunity 3: Product Portfolio Diversification and Restrategizing
• Legal Disclaimer