欧洲轻型商用车市场：2024-2032 年销售预测与成长机会

强而有力的脱碳措施将推动电动车变革性成长，到2032年渗透率将达到60%

Frost & Sullivan 预测，到 2032 年，整个轻型商用车 (LCV) 市场将达到 240 万辆。欧洲轻型商用车市场预计2023年至2032年复合年增长率为2.9%。在此期间，电动车（EV）的渗透率将达到60.0%，高于2023年的6.9%。

2023年欧洲LCV市场总规模为190万辆。货车数量最多，达 170 万辆，占所有轻型商用车的 92.4%。 3.5吨以下细分市场占总量的99.1%，3.5吨以上细分市场占剩余份额。

在欧洲销售的轻型商用车中有三分之一来自 Stellantis 集团。福特则位居第二，份额为 18.0%，紧随其后的是雷诺-日产集团，份额为 15.0%。德国大众和宾士占据前五名，总合市占率21.5%。

柴油引擎是轻型商用车的主要动力传动系统技术，占86.0%。在3.5吨以下的细分市场中，柴油占86.1%，而在3.5吨以上的重型等级中，柴油的占比甚至更低，为75.0%。

欧洲皮卡主要用于个人使用。同时，32.9%的货车用于小包裹和送货。公共工程、旅游服务和建筑应用占货车销量的 37.0%，而个人和搭乘用用途合计占比为 30.2%。

该欧洲轻型商用车研究服务的研究期间为2023年至2032年。

主要问题

• 2023年欧洲轻型商用车市场规模有多大？市场未来的成长前景如何？
• 轻型商用车领域的主要OEM和主要应用有哪些？
• 这个市场的主要企业化前景如何？
• eLCV 的总拥有成本与 ICE LCV 相比如何？
• 未来电动轻型商用车市场规模预计会发生什么样的变化？推动市场成长的因素有哪些？

研究亮点

欧洲 LCV 市场：2023-2032 年销售量与 eEV 渗透率预测

调查范围

调查范围

调查目标区域

欧洲

调查期间

2023-2032

基准年

2023年

预测期

2024-2032

市场区隔

皮卡车、货车、平顶式 (COE) 卡车

轻型商用车市场细分

整车总重小于6吨的轻型商用车：

• 紧凑型、中型、全尺寸、重型（HD）皮卡
• 厢型车 小型、中型、大型
• 驾驶室引擎 (COE) 卡车：微型、小型、轻型

动力传动系统类型

• 汽油
• 柴油引擎
• 天然气
• 电动车（本次调查中同时表示为 EV 和 xEV）

影响欧洲轻型商用车市场的三大关键策略挑战

产业融合

为什么？

• 汽车原始设备製造商 (OEM)、层级供应商和技术公司之间的合作有可能解决排放气体、安全和连接方面的通用挑战。
• 协同效应使相关人员能够快速开发创新解决方案、降低成本和风险。

弗罗斯特的观点

• 汽车製造商和科技公司之间的伙伴关係已经开始，并且在未来可能会变得更加普遍。
• 来自不同学科和专业知识的思想的融合预计将改变未来十年。

内部问题

为什么？

• 卡车运输业一直由思想陈旧、抵制变革的传统公司主导，但近年来，精通科技的新兴企业对此产生了兴趣。
• 这些年轻的公司正在利用先进技术和人工智慧（AI）来改写游戏规则。

弗罗斯特的视角

• 在未来两到五年内，我们预计会看到许多新参与企业，特别是在电气化市场。
• 许多科技公司都想在货运市场中分一杯羹，致力于互联、货运经纪和自动驾驶。

变革性大趋势

为什么？

• Frost & Sullivan 的《交通变革大趋势》研究了自动驾驶交通、绿色交通和新的交通模式将如何塑造未来。
• 连网型、自主、共用和电气化（CASE）是卡车运输业的关键字。
• 每一个都可能为创造一个更干净、更安全和更永续的环境做出贡献。

弗罗斯特的观点

• 远端资讯处理和数位货运经纪形式的连网型和共享技术尚处于起步阶段，但已经开始推广。
• Frost & Sullivan 预测电动卡车将在未来十年变得更加流行。
• 根据等级的不同，自动驾驶还需要 5 到 10 年的时间。

目录

成长环境－欧洲轻型商用车产业的转型

• 为什么成长如此困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 三大策略对轻型商用车（LCV）产业的影响

成长环境

• 主要发现
• 轻型商用车销售及使用份额
• LCV动力传动系统总成分体
• 销量预测和电动车渗透率

生态系统

• 调查范围
• 轻型商用车市场细分

轻型商用车市场前景

• 欧洲 - 区域展望
• 轻型商用车数量
• LCV动力传动系统总成分体
• 轻型商用车OEM市场占有率
• 轻型商用车主要应用
• 主要轻型商用车应用份额

主要国家见解

• 国家洞察 - 德国
• 国家洞察 - 法国
• 国家洞察 - 义大利
• 国家洞察 - 西班牙
• 国家洞察 -英国

轻型商用车电动化

• 电气化使用案例-皮卡
• 电气化使用案例- 货车
• eLCV技术蓝图
• 传动系统架构映射 - OEM
• eLCV 车型（依车辆尺寸）
• 主要OEM的电动平台
• 电动皮卡关键指标
• 电动货车行驶里程范围
• 电动搬运车价格分布
• 车辆数量和电动车普及率预测
• 小型电动搬运车-电池容量和马达功率
• 中型电动搬运车-电池容量和马达功率
• 大型电动货车－电池容量和马达功率
• 主要电动轻型商用车推出
• 电动车奖励- 特定国家

单位数量预测

• 按部门分類的销售预测
• 动力传动系统市占率预测
• 电动动力传动系统总成份额预测
• 皮卡保有量和电动车普及率预测
• 货车保有量和电动车普及率预测
• COE 卡车销售预测和电动车渗透率
• 轻型商用车（LCV）未来车身风格展望

总拥有成本分析

• TCO 分析 - 关键假设
• 大型货车 - TCO 份额和每英里成本
• 大型货车-收货期
• 大型货车 - TCO 组件
• 小型货车 - TCO 份额和每英里价格
• 小型货车-投资回收期
• 小型货车 - TCO 组件

轻型商用车领域的成长机会领域

• 成长机会 1 - 充满挑战的宏观经济经济状况
• 成长机会 2 – 皮卡销量的成长可抵消平顶式卡车 (COE) 的下降
• 成长机会 3 – 不断发展的电动车 (EV) 生态系统

最佳实践评估

FROST RADAR

下一步

• 成长机会的好处和影响
• 下一步
• 图表列表
• 免责声明

Strong Decarbonization Measures are Driving Transformational Growth in Electric Vehicles toward Penetration of 60% by 2032

Frost & Sullivan expects the overall light commercial vehicle (LCV) market size to reach 2.4 million units by 2032. The European LCV market is on track to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2023 and 2032. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration will increase to reach 60.0% during this period, up from 6.9% in 2023.

The overall size of the LCV market in Europe in 2023 was 1.9 million units. Vans held the largest volume at 1.7 million units and contributed 92.4% of the total LCV volumes. The less than 3.5t segment held 99.1% of the overall volume, and the greater than 3.5t segment made up the remaining share.

One out of every 3 LCVs sold in Europe belongs to the Stellantis Group. Next comes Ford at a distant second, with a market share of 18.0%, followed closely by Renault-Nissan Group at 15.0%. German manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz with a combined share of 21.5% complete the top five players.

Diesel is the primary powertrain technology for LCVs, powering 86.0% of them. Diesel powers 86.1% of the vehicles in the less than 3.5t segment, and even less in the higher-weight class of the greater than 3.5t segment, with a 75.0% share, due to the significant presence of EVs.

Pickups in Europe are almost entirely used for personal applications. Meanwhile, 32.9% of vans are used for parcel and delivery applications. Utilities, mobile services, and construction applications make up 37.0% of van sales, with personal and passenger applications holding a combined share of 30.2%.

The study period for this European LCV research service is 2023 to 2032.

Key Issues Addressed

• What is the size of the Europe LCV market in 2023? What are the market's future growth prospects?
• Who are the key OEMs, and what are the major applications in the LCV segment?
• What are the prospects for electrification in the market, and who are the key players driving it?
• How does the total cost of ownership for eLCVs compare with that of ICE LCV?
• What is the volume of the eLCV market expected to be in the future? What are the drivers for the growth of this market? 

 

Research Highlights

LCV Market: Volume and xEV Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032

 

Research Scope

Scope

Geographic Coverage

Europe

Study Period

2023-2032

Base Year

2023

Forecast Period

2024-2032

Market Segments

Pickups, Vans, Cab-Over-Engine (COE) Trucks

 

LCV Market Segmentation

GVWR < 6 tons LCV: 

• Pickups: Compact, Mid-size, Full-size, and Heavy-Duty (HD)
• Vans: Small, Medium, and Large
• Cab-over-engine (COE) Trucks: Mini, Small, and Light

Powertrain Types:

• Gasoline
• Diesel
• Natural Gas
• Electric Vehicle (represented as both EV and xEV in this study)

 

Top 3 Strategic Imperatives impacting the European LCV Market

Industry Convergence

Why:

• Collaborations among automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Tier I suppliers, and tech companies will likely address common challenges in emissions, safety, and connectivity.
• Synergies will allow stakeholders to develop innovative solutions faster, cut costs, and mitigate risks.

Frost Perspective:

• Partnerships between automotive and tech companies are already happening and will become more common.
• The confluence of ideas from diverse area and expertise is expected to transform the next decade.

Internal Challenges

Why:

• The trucking industry, dominated by legacy companies with old ideas and resistance to change, has attracted interest from tech-savvy start-ups in recent years.
• These young companies are rewriting the rules of the game through high-level technology and artificial intelligence (AI).

Frost Perspective:

• The following 2 to 5 years will see many new participants entering the market, especially in electrification.
• Numerous technology companies want a piece of the trucking pie and are working on connectivity, freight brokerage, and autonomous driving.

Transformative Megatrends

Why:

• Frost & Sullivan’s Mobility Revolution Megatrend considers how autonomous mobility, green transportation, and new mobility models will shape the future.
• In the trucking industry, the keywords are connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE).
• Each will contribute to a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable environment.

Frost Perspective:

• Connected and shared technologies in the form of telematics and digital freight brokerage are in the nascent stage but already in deployment.
• Frost & Sullivan expects a proliferation of electric trucks in this decade.
• Depending on the level, autonomous driving is still 5 to 10 years away.

 

Table of Contents

Growth Environment-Transformation in European Light Commercial Vehicle Sector

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Industry

Growth Environment

• Key Findings
• LCV Sales Volume and Application Share
• LCV Powertrain Split
• Volume Forecast and EV Penetration

Ecosystem

• Research Scope
• LCV Market Segmentation

LCV Market Outlook

• Europe-Regional Outlook
• LCV Volumes
• LCV Powertrain Split
• LCV OEM Market Share
• Major LCV Applications
• Key LCV Applications Share

Key Country Insight

• Country Insight-Germany
• Country Insight-France
• Country Insight-Italy
• Country Insight-Spain
• Country Insight-United Kingdom

LCV Electrification

• Electrification Use Cases-Pickups
• Electrification Use Cases-Vans
• eLCV Technology Roadmap
• Drivetrain Architecture Mapping-OEMs
• eLCV Models by Vehicle Size
• Electric Platforms of Key OEMs
• Key Metrics for Electric Pickups
• Mileage Range of Electric Vans
• Price Range of Electric Vans
• Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• Small Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Medium Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Large Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Key eLCV Launches
• EV Incentives-Select Countries

Volumes Forecast

• Volume Forecast by Segment
• Powertrain Share Forecast
• Electric Powertrain Share Forecast
• Pickup Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• Van Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• COE Truck Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• LCV Future Outlook by Body Style

TCO Analysis

• TCO Analysis-Key Assumptions
• Large Vans-TCO Share and per Mile Cost
• Large Vans-Payback Period
• Large Vans-TCO Components
• Small Vans-TCO Share and per Mile Cost
• Small Vans-Payback Period
• Small Vans-TCO Components

Growth Opportunity Universe in Light Commercial Vehicle Sector

• Growth Opportunity 1-Challenging Macro-economic Conditions
• Growth Opportunity 2-Pickups to Compensate for Decline in Cab-over-Engine (COE) Trucks
• Growth Opportunity 3-Growing Electric Vehicle (EV) Ecosystem

Best Practices Recognition

• Best Practices Recognition

Frost Radar

• Frost Radar

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer