2025年全球轻型商用车与中重型卡车市场展望

新兴市场的强劲销售抵消了北美和欧洲成长放缓的影响

2024年全球商用车市场中，中重型卡车的销售相较轻型商用车（LCV）则下降。各区域市场供应过剩导致卡车需求下降。东协、中国和印度的轻型商用车销量在经历了近年来的强劲成长后，出现大幅下滑。这主要是由于在全球宏观经济环境不稳定的情况下，企业实施了削减成本的措施，导致农村地区商用车需求疲软，都市区消费下降。此外，高利率、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及供应过剩都加剧了不不确定性。这抑制了商业信心，削弱了卡车需求。车队暂停了额外采购或卡车更换。

各国为因应美国关税而采取的反制关税措施，使得2025年的全球经济、贸易和物流状况难以预测。预计这将对整体货运以及原材料、商品和零件的成本产生重大影响，进而影响汽车需求。

除墨西哥外，大多数国家与美国的贸易往来有限。鑑于美国新政府的立场，美国环保署第三阶段温室气体法规预计将被推迟或削弱数年​​。因此，电动商用车的销量预计将下降。由于电动车投资放缓，先前设定的目标越来越难以实现，预计欧洲也将至少推迟现有的一些电动车相关目标数年。

不过，预计2025年印度、东协和拉丁美洲的商用车销售量仍将维持成长。强劲的宏观经济条件、景气的改善和消费的復苏可能是成长的主要动力。

研究期间为2024年至2025年，以2024年为基准年，2025年为预测期，地理范围涵盖北美、拉丁美洲、欧洲、印度、东协和中国。

目录

战略问题

• 为何成长变得越来越困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• 三大战略挑战对轻型商用车和中重型卡车产业的影响
• 成长机会推动Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）™

成长环境

• 商用车的主要趋势
• 2024年总结
• 2025 年预测：前 5 名
• 轻型商用车市场
• 中重型卡车市场

生态系统

• 调查范围
• 市场区隔

2025年全球经济展望

• 十大成长机会
• 2025 年十大趋势
• 全球GDP成长概况
• 趋势一：全球GDP成长
• 成长机会1：全球GDP成长
• 趋势二：通货膨胀和利率
• 成长机会2：通货膨胀和利率
• 趋势三：石油市场
• 成长机会3：石油市场
• 趋势四：劳动市场
• 成长机会4：劳动市场
• 趋势五：美元与黄金
• 成长机会五：美元和黄金
• 趋势六：北美
• 成长机会6：北美
• 趋势七：拉丁美洲
• 成长机会7：拉丁美洲
• 趋势8：西欧
• 成长机会8：西欧
• 趋势九：中东
• 成长机会9：中东
• 趋势 10：亚洲
• 成长机会10：亚洲

成长要素：轻型商用车市场展望

• 市场预测
• 按地区和车辆类别分類的市场预测
• LCV OEM销售记录
• 动力传动系统技术预测
• 主要 OEM eLCV 发布预测

成长要素：中重型卡车市场前景

• 市场预测
• 按地区和类别分類的市场预测
• MD&HD卡车OEM销售业绩
• 动力传动系统技术预测
• 主要整车厂 eMD 和 HD 卡车上市预测

成长要素：北美

• 市场展望
• 轻型商用车市场
• 中重型卡车市场
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长要素：欧洲

• 市场展望
• 轻型商用车市场
• 中重型卡车市场
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长要素：中国

• 市场展望
• 轻型商用车市场
• 中重型卡车市场
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长要素：印度

• 市场展望
• 轻型商用车市场
• 中重型卡车市场
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长要素：拉丁美洲

• 市场展望
• 轻型商用车市场
• 中重型卡车市场
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长要素：东协

• 市场展望
• 轻型商用车市场
• 中重型卡车市场
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长机会领域

• 成长机会1：寻求新的市场机会
• 成长机会2：开发替代燃料的内燃机平台
• 成长机会三：强化新兴市场

附录与后续步骤

• 成长机会的益处和影响
• 后续步骤Next steps
• 附表
• 免责声明

Robust Sales in Emerging Markets Mitigate the Effects of the Degrowth in North America and Europe

The global commercial vehicle market witnessed a decline in sales volumes in 2024, more so in the medium and heavy-duty truck segments than in light commercial vehicles (LCVs). Various regional markets had an oversupply, leading to a fall in truck demand. ASEAN, China, and India experienced a significant decline in LCV sales volumes, following strong growth in recent years. Poor demand for commercial vehicles in rural areas and lower consumption in urban areas due to businesses implementing cost-cutting measures amid unstable global macroeconomics were the leading contributors. In addition, high interest rates, rising geopolitical tensions, and excess supply all led to growing uncertainty. This dampened business sentiment and resulted in muted demand for trucks. Any incremental purchases or even truck replacements at the fleet end were put on hold.

Counter-tariffs from countries in response to the imposition of tariffs by the United States have made the global economy, trade, and logistics unpredictable in 2025. This is expected to have a significant impact on the overall freight movement and the cost of raw materials, goods, and components, affecting vehicle demand.

Apart from Mexico, most countries have limited exposure to US trade. Given the stance of the new US administration, the Environmental Protection Agency's Phase 3 greenhouse gas regulations are expected to be diluted or pushed back by a few years. This is expected to result in a setback to the sales of electrified commercial vehicles. Europe, too, with a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) investments and difficulty in achieving previously set targets, is expected to push back some of its existing EV-related targets by at least a couple of years.

However, India, ASEAN, and Latin America are projected to sustain growth in commercial vehicle sales in 2025. Stronger macroeconomics, improving business sentiments, and the revival of consumption are likely to be the major drivers of growth.

The study period is 2024-2025, with 2024 as the base year and 2025 as the forecast period. The geographic scope is North America, Latin America, Europe, India, ASEAN, and China.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Light Commercial Vehicle and Medium & High-duty Truck Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM

Growth Environment

• Top Commercial Vehicle Trends
• A Recap of 2024
• Top 5 Predictions for 2025
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market

Ecosystem

• Research Scope
• Market Segmentation

Global Economic Outlook, 2025

• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Top 10 Trends for 2025
• Global GDP Growth Snapshot
• Trend 1: Global GDP Growth
• Growth Opportunity 1: Global GDP Growth
• Trend 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
• Growth Opportunity 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
• Trend 3: Oil Markets
• Growth Opportunity 3: Oil Markets
• Trend 4: Labor Market
• Growth Opportunity 4: Labor Market
• Trend 5: US Dollar and Gold
• Growth Opportunity 5: US Dollar and Gold
• Trend 6: North America
• Growth Opportunity 6: North America
• Trend 7: Latin America
• Growth Opportunity 7: Latin America
• Trend 8: Western Europe
• Growth Opportunity 8: Western Europe
• Trend 9: Middle East
• Growth Opportunity 9: Middle East
• Trend 10: Asia
• Growth Opportunity 10: Asia

Growth Generator: LCV Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Vehicle Category
• LCV OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eLCV Launches

Growth Generator: MD&HD Truck Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• MD&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eMD&HD Truck Launches

Growth Generator: North America

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: Europe

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: China

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: India

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: LATAM

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: ASEAN

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Pursue New Market Opportunities
• Growth Opportunity 2: Develop ICE Platforms for Alternative Fuels
• Growth Opportunity 3: Strengthen Emerging Markets

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer