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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1892082
全球巴士和长途客车市场成长预测至2025年Global Transit and Coach Bus Growth Outlook, 2025 |
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欧洲、中国和印度电池电动巴士（BEB）的扩张带来了变革性的成长机会和新的经营模式。
预计到2025年，全球城市公车和长途客车销售将达到26.67万辆，其中中国和印度这两个快速成长的市场将带来显着成长。城市公车的需求主要得益于政府对车辆现代化和替代动力传动系统的补贴，而长途客车市场则受益于旅游业的强劲成长。
受排放气体法规、电池价格下降、低排放区出现、购置补贴、税收减免等因素的影响，电动巴士（eBus）市场预计将迅速扩张。电动巴士在公共交通领域的日益普及，为全球采购和供应替代动力传动系统的巴士创造了机会，促进了现有整车製造商、供应商和新参与企业之间的合作。
包括欧盟清洁车辆指令在内的一系列针对性法规预计将推动电动公车的普及，尤其是在各国公共交通采购中。欧洲议会于2024年4月核准、欧盟理事会于同年5月批准的修订版二氧化碳排放法规也将促进电动公车市场的成长。预计在2024年至2027年期间，随着大型公共产业和能源公司进军充电基础设施领域，对纯电动公车的需求将呈现强劲成长。
随着2025年《新能源城市公车及动力电池更换补贴实施细则》的出台，预计中国纯电动公车市场将迎来显着成长。这些细则将允许地方政府根据实际需求和数量比例更换新能源城市公车队，从而促进新能源公车的发展。政府所推行的农村客运、货运和邮政一体化政策将可缓解公共运输能力过剩的局面，并建立一种强调便利高效的新型农村交通服务模式。预计2024年中国长途客车市场将维持稳健成长。此外，中国电动客车製造商正透过建立製造和组装工厂以及扩大出口，迅速拓展全球市场。
2024年印度公车市场成长的主要驱动因素包括：城际和市内公共交通需求的復苏、各邦交通营业单位大规模采购公车以替换老旧车辆，以及私营运输业者为满足日益增长的通勤、教育和休閒出行需求而进行的车辆现代化改造。 2024年推出的PM-eBus Sewa支付安全机制旨在降低支付延迟的风险，并改善与公共交通管理部门签订特许经营合约的原始设备製造商（OEM）和营运商的融资管道。
巴西联邦政府的「成长加速计画（Novo PAC）」为人口超过15万的中大型城市的公共交通车队更新以及公共交通和绿色出行基础设施计划拨出大量资金。在电气化倡议、能源效率法规和城市永续目标的推动下，电动驱动系统在该地区日益普及。 2025年，智利圣地牙哥计画引进1,800辆电动公车，以改善都市区空气品质、减少噪音污染，并符合智利的长期环境目标。拉丁美洲主要国家正在製定电气化策略，以促进在其公共交通系统中采用零排放公车。零排放车辆（ZEV）公车竞标强调基于绩效的合同，目标客户是那些能够满足预防性维护和完善的售后支援（包括备件供应）要求的製造商。
该研究也探讨了北美、欧洲、拉丁美洲、中国和印度等全球各市场的以下领域：
- 重要法规和指令
- 各地区主要产业趋势及影响
- 按地区分類的动力传动系统技术份额（包括电动车和天然气汽车）
- OEM动力传动系统技术产品系列
- 发展机会
目录
变革全球巴士与长途客车产业
- 为什么经济成长变得越来越困难？
- The Strategic Imperative 8
- 三大策略要务对全球巴士和长途客车产业的影响
- 成长机会驱动TMGrowth管道引擎
成长环境
- 乘客出游方面的主要趋势
- 主要发现：2024 年概要
- 主要发现：2025 年五大预测
- 路线和长途巴士市场
- 重要法规和指令概述
生态系统
- 调查范围
- 分割
2025年世界经济展望
- 十大成长机会
- 2025年十大趋势
- 全球GDP成长概览
- 趋势1：世界GDP成长率
- 成长机会1：全球GDP成长
- 趋势二：通货膨胀和利率
- 成长机会之二：通货膨胀与利率
- 趋势三：石油市场
- 成长机会3：石油市场
- 趋势四：劳动市场
- 成长机会 4：劳动市场
- 趋势五：美国与黄金
- 成长机会五：美国和黄金
- 趋势六：北美
- 成长机会 6：北美
- 趋势七：拉丁美洲
- 成长机会之七：拉丁美洲
- 趋势八：西欧
- 成长机会 8：西欧
成长要素：本地和长途巴士市场展望
- 市场预测
- 按地区和细分市场分類的市场预测
- 2025年公车动力传动系统技术预测
成长要素：北美
- 市场展望：北美
- 北美季度巴士销售
- 动力传动系统技术分享
- 北美巴士OEM销售业绩
- OEM动力传动系统技术平台：北美
成长要素：欧洲
- 市场展望：欧洲
- 欧洲季度巴士销售业绩：
- 动力传动系统技术分享
- 欧洲巴士OEM销售业绩
- OEM动力传动系统技术平台
成长要素：中国
- 市场展望：中国
- 中国季度巴士销售业绩：
- 动力传动系统技术分享
- 客车OEM销售记录：中国
- OEM动力传动系统技术平台
成长要素：印度
- 市场展望：印度
- 印度季度巴士销售数据：
- 动力传动系统技术分享
- 巴士OEM销售记录：印度
- OEM动力传动系统技术平台
成长要素：拉丁美洲
- 市场展望：拉丁美洲
- 季度巴士销售业绩：拉丁美洲
- 动力传动系统技术分享
- 客车OEM销售业绩：拉丁美洲
- OEM动力传动系统技术平台
成长机会领域
- 增长机会1：政府强制鼓励采用电动动力传动系统
- 成长机会2：公车安全措施、驾驶辅助与自动驾驶技术的出现
- 成长机会3：扩大价值链参与者的商机
附录与后续步骤
- 成长机会带来的益处和影响
- 未来计划
- 附件清单
- 免责声明
Battery Electric Transit Bus Expansion Across Europe, China, and India Presents Transformative Growth Opportunities and New Business Models
Global transit and coach bus sales are forecast to reach 266,700 units in 2025, with substantial growth attributed to the fast-growing markets in China and India. Increased demand for transit buses is fueled by fleet modernization and government subsidies for alternative powertrains, while the robust tourism growth drives the coach bus segment.
The electric bus (eBus) market is poised for rapid expansion due to factors such as emission regulations, declining battery prices, the emergence of low-emission zones, purchase subsidies, and tax exemptions. The growing adoption of transit eBuses opens up opportunities for the global sourcing and supply of alternative powertrain buses, fostering collaboration among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new market entrants.
Targeted regulations, including the EU Clean Vehicle directive, are expected to boost eBus adoption, particularly in national public transport procurement. The revised CO2 emissions, approved by the European Parliament in April 2024 and ratified by the Council of the European Union in May 2024, will also encourage growth. BEV buses are expected to experience strong growth from 2024 to 2027, supported by the entry of major utility and energy companies into the electric charging infrastructure space.
In China, BEV buses are forecast to see considerable growth with the introduction of the 2025 New Energy City Bus and Power Battery Renewal Subsidy Implementation Rules. These rules, which empower local governments to update their fleets of new energy city buses based on actual demand and quantity ratios, will drive the growth of new energy buses. The government's policy to integrate rural passenger, freight, and postal services will alleviate public transportation's overcapacity and establish a new rural transportation service model that emphasizes convenience and efficiency. Chinese coach buses registered strong growth in 2024. Additionally, Chinese eBus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, driven by the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, as well as growing exports.
In India, the bus market's growth in 2024 was mainly driven by the revival of public transport demand across intercity and intracity routes, large-scale procurement of buses by state transport undertakings to replace aging fleets, and fleet modernization initiatives by private transport operators due to the increased movement of people for work, education, and leisure. The 2024 rollout of the PM-eBus Sewa-Payment Security Mechanism scheme aimed to mitigate the risk of payment delays and enhance the bankability of OEMs and operators engaged in concession agreements with public transport authorities.
Brazil's federal government's Programa de Aceleracao do Crescimento (Novo PAC) has allocated substantial funding for the renewal of public transport fleets and infrastructure projects in public transport and active mobility in large and medium-sized cities with more than 150,000 inhabitants. Electric powertrains are increasingly popular in the region, driven by electromobility and energy efficiency regulations, as well as cities' sustainable development goals. In 2025, Santiago de Chile plans to deploy 1800 electric buses, improving urban air quality, reducing noise pollution, and aligning with Chile's long-term environmental goals. Major Latin American countries are developing electromobility strategies to promote zero-emission buses in their public transportation systems. ZEV bus tenders focus on performance-based contracts where manufacturers meet requirements for strong post-sales support, including preventive maintenance and guaranteed spare parts.
The study also explores the following areas across various global markets, including North America, Europe, Latin America, China, and India:
- Notable regulations and mandates
- Top industry trends and impact by region
- Powertrain technology share by region, including electric and natural gas vehicles
- Powertrain technology product portfolios of OEMs
- Growth opportunities
Table of Contents
Transformation in the Global Transit and Coach Bus Industry
- Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
- The Strategic Imperative 8
- The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Transit and Coach Bus Industry
- Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM
Growth Environment
- Top Passenger Mobility Trends
- Key Findings: A Recap of 2024
- Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2025
- Transit Bus and Coach Market
- Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot
Ecosystem
- Research Scope
- Segmentation
2025 Global Economic Outlook
- Top 10 Growth Opportunities
- Top 10 Trends for 2025
- Global GDP Growth Snapshot
- Trend 1: Global GDP Growth
- Growth Opportunity 1: Global GDP Growth
- Trend 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
- Growth Opportunity 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
- Trend 3: Oil Markets
- Growth Opportunity 3: Oil Markets
- Trend 4: Labor Market
- Growth Opportunity 4: Labor Market
- Trend 5: US Dollar and Gold
- Growth Opportunity 5: US Dollar and Gold
- Trend 6: North America
- Growth Opportunity 6: North America
- Trend 7: Latin America
- Growth Opportunity 7: Latin America
- Trend 8: Western Europe
- Growth Opportunity 8: Western Europe
Growth Generator: Transit and Coach Bus Market Outlook
- Market Forecast
- Market Forecast by Region and Segment
- 2025 Bus Powertrain Technology Forecast
Growth Generator: North America
- Market Outlook: North America
- Quarterly Bus Sales: North America
- Powertrain Technology Share
- Bus OEM Sales Performance: North America
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America
Growth Generator: Europe
- Market Outlook: Europe
- Quarterly Bus Sales: Europe
- Powertrain Technology Share
- Bus OEM Sales Performance: Europe
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Growth Generator: China
- Market Outlook: China
- Quarterly Bus Sales: China
- Powertrain Technology Share
- Bus OEM Sales Performance: China
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Growth Generator: India
- Market Outlook: India
- Quarterly Bus Sales: India
- Powertrain Technology Share
- Bus OEM Sales Performance: India
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Growth Generator: Latin America
- Market Outlook: Latin America
- Quarterly Bus Sales: Latin America
- Powertrain Technology Share
- Bus OEM Sales Performance: Latin America
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Growth Opportunity Universe
- Growth Opportunity 1: Government Mandates to Expedite Electric Powertrain Adoption
- Growth Opportunity 2: Advent of Bus Safety, Driver Assistance, and Automated Driving
- Growth Opportunity 3: Expansion of Revenue Opportunities for Value Chain Participant Growth
Appendix & Next Steps
- Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
- Next Steps
- List of Exhibits
- Legal Disclaimer
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