PJM的BRA (必要电力供给量竞标) 的结果 (2024/25年):市场是落到底的吗？

分析概要

PJM最近发布了延迟的2024/25交付年度基础剩余拍卖(BRA)的结果。虽然RTO价格在本次拍卖中有所下降，但我们认为PJM的产能价格可能正在触底，价格上涨趋势可能即将到来。做出该决定的原因有以下三个。

• 较低的预期能源和辅助服务 (E&AS) 抵消了即将举行的拍卖中的价值
• PJM整体供需平衡的短期性窘迫
• 由于发电商对冬季风暴埃利奥特暴露的业绩不佳风险做出反应，未来的出价行为不确定。

本报告提供美国的电力市场上最新的发电容量竞标的结果彙整，关于今后的竞标价格趋势预测考察。

Report Summary:

PJM recently posted results of the delayed 2024/25 delivery year Base Residual Auction (BRA). While RTO prices declined in this auction, our view is that capacity prices in PJM may be bottoming out and an increasing price trend may be forthcoming. In this insight, we lay out three reasons for this view:

• Lower expected energy and ancillary services (E&AS) offset values in upcoming auctions

• A tightening supply and demand balance across PJM in the near-term

• Uncertain future bidding behavior as generators react to underperformance risk exposed by Winter Storm Elliott.