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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1754025
2025-2033年核退役市场报告(依反应器类型(压水器、沸水器、气冷器等)、策略、产能和地区)Nuclear Decommissioning Market Report by Reactor Type (Pressurized Water Reactor, Boiling Water Reactor, Gas Cooled Reactor, and Others), Strategy, Capacity, and Region 2025-2033 |
2024年,全球核能退役市场规模达72亿美元。展望未来,预计到2033年,该市场规模将达到110亿美元,2025-2033年期间的复合年增长率(CAGR)为4.63%。再生能源利用率的提高、核反应器的关闭以及对放射性废弃物管理的重视,正在扩大市场成长。
对再生能源的需求不断增加
如今,太阳能、风能和水力发电等再生能源的成本竞争力正日益增强,与核能等传统能源形成鲜明对比。因此,再生能源的趋势日益增强,并可能在能源市场上与核能直接竞争。这种竞争会影响核电厂的获利能力和营运能力,最终导致其提前退役。此外,公众对环境问题、核子安全以及放射性废弃物处置的认识不断提高,这些认知会影响大众对能源的看法和选择,从而推动市场成长。与核能相比,再生能源通常被认为更清洁、更安全、更永续。这反过来又增加了公众对再生能源计划的支持和需求。公众舆论的这种变化可能会给政策制定者带来压力,迫使他们优先发展再生能源,同时逐步淘汰核能,最终导致核设施的退役。核电厂的拆除也促使人们采用其他能源,例如再生能源。根据国际能源总署的报告,预计到2028年,再生能源将占全球发电量的42%以上,其中风能和太阳能光电的份额将翻一番,达到25%。
关闭核反应炉
世界核能协会2024年的报告称,在过去20年中,全球共有107座核反应炉关闭。当核反应器达到其运作寿命或变得经济不可行时,它们就会永久关闭。因此,全球核退役计画的数量正在增加。随着越来越多的反应炉被关闭,对能够安全、高效、经济地管理复杂退役过程的熟练专业人员和公司的需求也日益增长。此外,核反应器的关闭也促进了先进退役技术和方法的发展。各公司正在投入研发资金,以找到更安全、更有效率、更具成本效益的拆除、去污、废弃物管理和场地修復方法,预计将影响核退役市场的成长。
日益关注放射性废弃物管理
根据太平洋西北国家实验室 (PNNL) 2022 年的报告,全球固体放射性废弃物总量约为 3,800 万立方米,其中 81% 已永久处置,另有 19% 处于储存状态,等待最终处置。核电厂退役过程中也会产生放射性废弃物,这正成为一项重大挑战。因此,对创新的放射性废弃物处理和处置方法的需求日益增长。此外,监管机构正在製定严格的规定,以安全管理和处置退役过程中产生的放射性废弃物。遵守这些规定对于获得许可证和批准以继续进行退役专案至关重要。随着相关规则不断变化以应对环境和安全问题,参与核电厂退役的企业正在投资废弃物管理解决方案,以遵守这些规定。此外,有效的放射性废弃物管理是保护公众健康和环境的关键。不当处理或丢弃放射性废弃物会造成土壤、水和空气污染,对人类健康和环境造成长期危害。此外,监管机构、当地社区和环保组织等利害关係人正在密切审查退役项目,以确保放射性废弃物得到安全、负责任的处理。
压水反应器(PWR)占据大部分市场份额
压水器 (PWR) 是全球核能发电最常用的反应器技术。随着许多此类反应器即将达到其运行寿命的终点,对退役服务的需求日益增长。此外,与其他反应器相比,压水器体积庞大,这导致退役过程复杂,需要大量资源和专家。此外,压水堆退役计画通常涉及大量放射性废弃物,需要复杂的废弃物管理解决方案。
立即拆解占产业最大份额
立即拆除是指立即从退役核设施中移除放射性物质和结构。这种方法可以释放场地的潜在再利用或再开发潜力,最大限度地减少维护退役设施的长期财务负担。此外,核退役市场近期技术和专业知识的发展使得立即拆除变得可行且经济高效,从而推动了其广泛应用。
高达 800 MW 代表领先的市场领域
与规模更大、更现代化的核电厂相比,这类核电厂中的小型反应器往往更为老旧,运作经济可行性更低。因此,它们更有可能被退役。此外,无论核电厂规模大小,退役的监管要求和安全标准通常都大致相似,小型反应器退役的复杂性和挑战通常与大型反应器相当。因此,800 MW 以下反应器的退役项目占核电厂退役总需求的很大一部分。
欧洲引领市场,占最大的核退役市场份额
该报告还对所有主要区域市场进行了全面分析,包括北美(美国和加拿大);亚太地区(中国、日本、印度、韩国、澳洲、印尼等);欧洲(德国、法国、英国、义大利、西班牙、俄罗斯等);拉丁美洲(巴西、墨西哥等);以及中东和非洲。报告指出,欧洲是最大的核退役区域市场。
根据世界核能协会2024年的报告,到2024年,英国将关闭36座核反应炉。欧洲有大量老化的核电站,它们即将达到运行寿命的终点。由于许多核电厂建于几十年前,因此退役已成为必然。其次,欧洲国家拥有严格的核安和退役监管框架,因此需要周详的规划并遵守严格的标准。这些法规为退役活动建构了强而有力的框架,确保退役活动安全、负责地进行。
The global nuclear decommissioning market size reached USD 7.2 Billion in 2024. Looking forward, it is expected that the market will reach USD 11.0 Billion by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 4.63% during 2025-2033. Rising utilization of renewable energy sources, shutting down of nuclear reactors, and focus on radioactive waste management are expanding the market growth.
Increasing demand for renewable energy sources
Renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower are now becoming more cost-competitive with the traditional sources such as nuclear power. Therefore, the trend of renewable energy is increasing, which can directly compete with nuclear power in the energy market. The competition can affect the profitability and viability of the nuclear power plants, which results in their early decommissioning. Besides this, the rising public awareness about environmental issues and nuclear safety and radioactive waste disposal that can affect public opinion and choices on energy sources is supporting the market growth. Renewable energy is usually recognized as cleaner, safer, and more sustainable compared to nuclear power. This, in turn, is increasing the public support and demand for renewable energy initiatives. This change in the public opinion can create a pressure on the policymakers to prioritize the development of renewable energy and at the same time phase out the nuclear power, which is leading to the decommissioning of the nuclear facilities. The dismantlement of nuclear power plants is leading to the adoption of other energy sources like the renewable energy. According to the International Energy Agency report, it is expected that the renewable energy sources will account for over 42% of global electricity generation in 2028, with the share of wind and solar PV doubling to 25%.
Shutting down of nuclear reactors
The World Nuclear Association report of 2024 claims that over the past 20 years, 107 nuclear reactors were shut down across the globe. As nuclear reactors reach the end of their operational lifespans or become economically unviable, they are shut down permanently. Thus the number of nuclear decommissioning projects is rising around the world. With the growing number of reactors being shut down, there is an increasing demand for skilled professionals and firms that can manage the complex decommissioning process safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively. Besides this, the shutdown of nuclear reactors is leading to the development of advanced decommissioning technologies and methods. Companies are spending on research and development (R&D) activities to come up with the safer, more efficient, and cost-effective ways of dismantling, decontamination, waste management, and site remediation, which is anticipated to influence the nuclear decommissioning market growth.
Rising focus on radioactive waste management
As per the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) report of 2022, the total global inventory of solid radioactive waste was approximately 38 million m3, of which 81% of the total waste was disposed of permanently and a further 19% was in storage awaiting for final disposal. Radioactive waste is also generated during decommissioning activities, which is becoming a significant challenge. As a result, there is an increasing demand for innovative waste treatment and disposable methods for radioactive waste. Moreover, regulatory agencies are imposing strict rules for the safe management and disposal of radioactive waste that is produced during decommissioning activities. The compliance with these regulations is vital for getting the permits and the approvals to proceed with the decommissioning projects. As rules are changing to deal with the environmental and safety issues, firms participating in nuclear decommissioning are investing in waste management solutions to comply with these rules. In addition, effective radioactive waste management is the key to the protection of public health and the environment. Improper handling or throwing away the radioactive waste can cause the pollution of the soil, water, and air, which is leading long-term dangers to human health and the environment. Furthermore, stakeholders, among which regulatory authorities, local communities, and environmental organizations, are closely examining decommissioning projects to make sure that the radioactive waste is handled safely and responsibly.
Pressurized water reactor (PWR) accounts for the majority of the market share
Pressure water reactor (PWR) is the most used reactor technology for nuclear power generation around the world. As many of these reactors are approaching the end of their operational life spans, the need for decommissioning services is increasing. Additionally, PWRs are huge in size in comparison to other reactors, which, in turn, causes the decommissioning processes to be complicated and requires a lot of resources and experts. Moreover, PWR decommissioning projects usually involve large amounts of radioactive waste, requiring sophisticated waste management solutions.
Immediate dismantling holds the largest share of the industry
The instant removal of the radioactive materials and structures from a decommissioned nuclear facility is the immediate dismantling. This approach allows for the release of the site for potential reuse or redevelopment, minimizing the long-term financial liabilities associated with maintaining a decommissioned facility. Besides this, nuclear decommissioning market recent development of the technology and expertise is making the immediate dismantling feasible and cost-effective, thereby driving its widespread adoption.
Upto 800 MW represents the leading market segment
Smaller reactors within this segment tend to be older and less economically viable to operate compared to larger and more modern plants. Consequently, they are more likely to be decommissioned. Furthermore, regulatory requirements and safety standards for decommissioning are generally similar regardless of plant size, and complexities and challenges associated with decommissioning smaller reactors are often comparable to those of larger ones. As a result, decommissioning projects for reactors up to 800 MW represent a substantial portion of the overall nuclear decommissioning demand.
Europe leads the market, accounting for the largest nuclear decommissioning market share
The report has also provided a comprehensive analysis of all the major regional markets, which include North America (the United States and Canada); Asia Pacific (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, and others); Europe (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, and others); Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, and others); and the Middle East and Africa. According to the report, Europe represents the largest regional market for nuclear decommissioning.
According to the World Nuclear Association report of 2024, in UK 36 nuclear reactors were shut down by 2024. Europe has a notable number of ageing nuclear power plants that are reaching the end of their operational lifespans. As many of these plants were built several decades ago and decommissioning them are becoming a necessity. Secondly, European countries have stringent regulatory frameworks governing nuclear safety and decommissioning, which necessitate thorough planning and compliance with rigorous standards. These regulations create a robust framework for decommissioning activities, ensuring that they are carried out safely and responsibly.