全球电动中型和大型客车市场:技术展望、趋势、市场分析和预测 - 按推广细分、组成、应用和地区 - 预测(截至 2030 年)
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1453085

全球电动中型和大型客车市场:技术展望、趋势、市场分析和预测 - 按推广细分、组成、应用和地区 - 预测(截至 2030 年)

Electric Mid- and Large Bus Market Technology Landscape, Trends and Market Analysis by Propulsion, Configuration, Application and Region - Global Forecast 2030

出版日期: | 出版商: MarketsandMarkets | 英文 122 Pages | 订单完成后即时交付

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简介目录

电动中型和大型客车(9-14m)的市场规模预计将从2023年的66,593辆成长到2030年的171,000辆,预测期内复合年增长率为14.4%。

调查范围
调查年份 2023-2030
基准年 2022年
预测期 2023-2030
单元 数量(单位)
部分 驱动类别(BEV、FCEV、HEV/PHEV)、配置(小型/大型)、应用(城市/公车巴士、长途客车、中型车和校车)、地区
目标区域 亚太地区/欧洲/北美

预计纯电动车将成为预测期内最大的市场:

预计纯电动车将在预测期内引领市场。随着世界越来越意识到环境问题,汽车OEM和政府机构正在努力减少碳足迹,而纯电动车符合这些愿望。一些政府机构正在製定策略,用电动交通解决方案取代现有的公共车辆。由于优惠的奖励和税收优惠,先进、远距、纯电动中型和大型客车的销售量预计将大幅成长。此外,纯电动车的运作效率相对较高,约为 90%,而内燃机的运作效率为 30% 至 40%。 BEV 的平均续航里程为 150-250 英里,具体取决于电池类型,例如 LFP 或 NMC。这种高效的电池容量意味着用于为公车提供动力来源的电力比柴油更便宜,从而进一步降低了公车的营运成本。纯电动车的运动部件较少,因此维护成本较低。随着纯电动客车技术的不断发展,电动客车将提供更广泛的尺寸和配置,以满足不同应用和市场的需求。

校车在北美市场有显着的成长机会:

校车是美国主要的公车领域,预计到 2030 年该领域的电气化率将达到约 45%。扩张的主要动力是美国环保署 (EPA) 的清洁校车返利计划,该计划已承诺提供超过 9 亿美元的资金,并在 389 个学区购买了 2,400 多辆电动校车。北美OEM在零排放客车技术方面也表现出色,并致力于创新。凭藉先进的电池技术,这些公司开发了高效能的电动中型和重型公车,并计划在未来几年内实现整个校车车队的电气化。

本报告调查了全球电动中型和大型客车市场,总结了市场概况、市场影响因素分析、市场规模趋势和预测,以及各个细分市场和地区的详细分析。

目录

  • 市场定义
  • 市场分类
  • 调查方法:依地区及动力传动系统
  • 影响电动客车市场的因素
  • 由于电动车的普及,主要地区的公车销量
  • 中大型客车市场普及:全球
  • 中大型客车市场普及:世界 vs 中国
  • 全球中大型客车市场(含中国)
  • 全球中大型客车市场(不含中国)
  • 欧洲及北美中大型客车市场
  • XEV成长率
  • 全球纯电动中型和大型客车市场(按应用)
  • 北美纯电动中大型客车市场:依应用分类
  • 全球中大型客车市场(按地区及推广细分)
  • 市场占有率分析:全球中大型客车市场
  • 欧洲:电动中大型客车市场及主要OEM
    • 电动客车市场:影响的主要趋势
    • 清洁车辆指令
    • 主要电动客车OEM
    • 中大型客车市场:依动力传动系统
    • 纯电动中大型客车市场:依应用分类
    • 客车销售(依国家/地区):柴油/汽油/天然气 vs 电池电动
    • 电动中型和大型客车市场及其车型:按长度和OEM
    • 市场占有率分析 - 电动客车製造商众多
    • TIV 成长
  • 北美:电动中大型客车市场及主要OEM
    • 电动客车市场:影响的主要趋势
    • 电动公车激励计划
    • 主要电动客车OEM
    • 中大型客车市场:依动力传动系统
    • 纯电动中大型客车市场:依应用分类
    • 客车销售(依国家/地区):柴油/汽油/天然气 vs 电池电动
    • 电动中大型客车市场(依长度、OEM、车型、整车尺寸分)
    • OEM型号、技术规格、持有单位数量
    • 美国:标准巴士指南
  • 中国:中大型客车和主要OEM的电动客车市场
    • 电动客车市场:影响的主要趋势
    • 电动公车奖励计划以及公车和远距公车补贴
    • 主要电动客车OEM
    • 中大型客车市场:依动力传动系统
    • 纯电动中大型客车市场:依应用分类
    • OEM型号和技术规格
    • 市场占有率分析 - 主要和中型客车製造商的大量存在
  • 亚太地区(不含中国):中大型客车市场及主要OEM
    • 中大型客车市场:依动力传动系统
    • 纯电动中大型客车市场:依应用分类
    • 客车销售(依国家/地区):柴油/汽油/天然气 vs 电池电动
    • 亚太地区(不包括中国):电动客车市场现状
  • 印度:中大型客车和主要OEM的电动客车市场
    • 电动客车市场:影响的主要趋势
    • 印度:电动客车市场概况
    • 中大型客车市场:依动力传动系统
    • 电动巴士订单数量:按城市和巴士製造商划分
    • 车厂充电价值链・营运模式多元・主要企业
    • 市场占有率分析和产品比较
    • 竞争基准化分析
    • 未来几年补贴要求将会上升
  • 不断扩大的电动客车市场生态系统
  • 因各种条件而导致的里程变化
  • 国家/地区的尺寸限制(法规/当前硬体要求)
  • 需求群:依载客量/客流量
  • 长度/乘客数/座位数:EV/ICE,1层
  • 长度/座位数:EV,1 层
  • 技术蓝图
  • 价值链分析
  • 总拥有成本 (TCO) 和材料清单(BOM)
  • 跨客户群的主要趋势
  • 财务模型
  • 估计业务指标
简介目录
Product Code: AT 8911

The global electric mid- and large (9-14m) bus market size is projected to grow from 66,593 units in 2023 to 171,000 units by 2030, at a CAGR of 14.4%.

Scope of the Report
Years Considered for the Study2023-2030
Base Year2022
Forecast Period2023-2030
Units ConsideredVolume (Units)
SegmentsPropulsion (BEV, FCEV, HEV/PHEV), Configuration (Light & Heavy Duty), Application (City/Transit Bus, Coach, Midi & School Bus) and Region
Regions coveredAsia Pacific, Europe, and North America

The growth of the electric mid- & large bus market is primarily fueled by the impending emission regulations with stricter limits and a rising preference for sustainable transportation. Despite being in its early stages of development, the main challenge confronting this industry is the elevated cost of electric mid- & large buses in comparison to traditional diesel buses, mainly attributed to the substantial expense of batteries. The principal obstacle faced by this market revolves around safety apprehensions and the limited range associated with battery-powered buses.

Moreover, the growing focus on electrical infrastructure with supportive government efforts, as well as the development of charging stations, are some of the factors that will significantly contribute to market growth during the forecast period.

"BEV is expected to be the largest market in the forecast period."

BEV dominate the electric mid- & large bus market worldwide during the review period. Automotive OEMs and government agencies are striving to reduce the carbon footprint as worldwide awareness of environmental issues grows, and BEVs align with these aspirations. Several government agencies are strategizing to replace their existing public fleets with electric mobility solutions. With lucrative incentives and tax benefits provided, the sales of advanced and long-range pure electric mid- & large buses are anticipated to experience a significant surge. It also has relatively higher operational efficiency, about 90%, compared to ICE, which is 30-40%. The average range of BEVs is 150 to 250 miles and varies based on battery type installation such as LFP or NMC. Due to this efficient battery capacity, electricity used to power the buses is less expensive than diesel, further lowering the operational costs for buses. BEVs have fewer moving components, resulting in lower maintenance costs. As the technology for pure electric mid- & large buses continues to evolve, a broader range of electric mid- & large buses is likely to be available in different sizes and configurations to meet the needs of different applications and markets.

"School buses will have considerable growth opportunities in the North American market."

School Buses contribute a major portion of the US buses segment and around 45% electrification is expected in this segment by 2030. The predominant factor driving this expansion is the Clean School Bus Rebate Program by the LIS Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which granted over USD 900 million for the acquisition of more than 2,400 electric school buses by 389 school districts. California continues to spearhead the adoption of electric school buses, with a commitment to over 1,800 units statewide, of which at least 35% are already delivered or in operation. This figure surpasses the next leading state, Maryland, by more than fivefold, as they have 361 commitments. Notably, New York experienced the most significant surge since September 2022, with 184 new commitments. OEMS in North America excels in zero-emission bus technology and has a strong focus on innovation. With advanced battery technology, these players are planning to develop efficient electric mid- & large buses to electrify the entire school bus fleet in the coming years.

"Europe is expected to be the second largest electric mid- and large (9-14m) bus market."

Europe offers a significant opportunity for the electric mid- & large bus market as the regulations related to the environment have become stringent in the region. These regulations drive market players to test and develop advanced vehicles, which will further boost the electric mid- & large bus market. According to the National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency, Germany aims to have at least 50% of all new buses purchased by public transport authorities and companies to be electric by 2025, with the target increasing to 100% by 2030. Europe is home to major electric mid- & large bus manufacturers and is renowned for innovations, cutting-edge R&D, and technological advancements in electric mid- & large bus. Government support through incentives and tax benefits, the presence of individual investors, and technological edge drive the European electric mid- & large bus market. European market to tend toward 100% BEV city/transit buses post 2025 and this will lead to markets such as Germany, France, and the UK having more than 3,000 BEV sales per year.

Breakdown of primaries

The study contains various industry experts' insights, from component suppliers to Tier 1 companies and OEMs. The break-up of the primaries is as follows:

By Company Type: OEMs - 80%, Tier I/Other players - 10%

By Designation: C level - 70%, Others- 30%

By Region: Asia Pacific - 70%, Europe - 20%, North America - 10%

The key players in the electric mid- & large bus market are BYD (China), Yutong (China), CAF (Solaris) (Spain), VDL Groep (Netherlands), and AB Volvo (Sweden). The key strategies adopted by major companies to sustain their position in the market are expansions, contracts and agreements, and partnerships. These companies have set up R&D facilities and offer best-in-class products to their customers.

Research Coverage:

The market study covers the electric mid- & large bus market by propulsion (BEV, HEV/PHEV, FCEV, and Diesel/Gasoline/NG), Configuration (Light Duty, Heavy Duty, Coach), Application (City/Transit Bus, Coaches, Midi Bus, and School Bus) and Region (Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America). It also covers the competitive landscape and company profiles of the major players in the electric mid- & large bus market ecosystem.

Key Benefits of the Report

The study also includes an in-depth competitive analysis of the key players in the market, along with their company profiles, key observations related to product and business offerings, recent developments, and key market strategies.

The report will help the market leaders/new entrants in this market with information on the closest approximations of the revenue numbers for the overall electric mid- & large bus market and the subsegments. This report will help stakeholders understand the competitive landscape and gain more insights to position their businesses better and plan suitable go-to-market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the market and provides them with information on key market drivers, restraints, challenges, and opportunities.

The report provides insights on the following pointers:

  • Analysis of key drivers (The increasing need for sustainable mass transit solutions and the need to reduce GHG emissions), restraints (Safety Concerns in EV batteries and high development costs), opportunities (Transition towards hydrogen fuel cell electric mobility, electric mid- & large bus as a service), and challenges (High cost of developing charging infrastructure) influencing the growth of the electric mid- & large bus market
  • Product Development/Innovation: Detailed insights on upcoming technologies, research & development activities, and new product & service launches in the electric mid- & large bus market
  • Market Development: Comprehensive information about lucrative markets - the report analyses the electric mid- & large bus market across varied regions
  • Market Diversification: Exhaustive information about new products & services, untapped geographies, recent developments, and investments in the electric mid- & large bus market
  • Competitive Assessment: In-depth assessment of market shares, growth strategies, and service offerings of leading players like BYD (Build Your Dreams) (China), CRRC Electric (China), Yutong (China), and AB Volvo (Sweden), among others in the electric mid- & large bus market

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. DEFINITIONS, RESEARCH METHODOLOGY, AND ASSUMPTIONS

  • 1.1 MARKET DEFINITIONS
  • 1.2 MARKET SEGMENTATION
    • 1.2.1 BY CONFIGURATION AND SEATING CAPACITY
    • 1.2.2 BY POWERTRAIN
  • 1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY, BY REGION AND POWERTRAIN
  • 1.4 FACTORS INFLUENCING ELECTRIC BUS MARKET

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 3.1 BUS SALES ACROSS KEY REGIONS WITH EV PENETRATION
  • 3.2 GLOBAL UPTAKE OF MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET
  • 3.3 CHINA VS. GLOBAL UPTAKE OF MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET
  • 3.4 GLOBAL MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET (INCL. CHINA)
  • 3.5 GLOBAL MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET (EXCL. CHINA)
  • 3.6 EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET
  • 3.7 GROWTH RATE OF XEVS
  • 3.8 GLOBAL BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
  • 3.9 NORTH AMERICA: BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
  • 3.10 GLOBAL ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY REGION AND PROPULSION
  • 3.11 MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS: GLOBAL MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET
  • 3.12 EUROPE: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
    • 3.12.1 EUROPE: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET - KEY INFLUENCING TRENDS
    • 3.12.2 EUROPE: CLEAN VEHICLE DIRECTIVES
    • 3.12.3 EUROPE: KEY ELECTRIC BUS OEMS
    • 3.12.4 EUROPE: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
    • 3.12.5 EUROPE: BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
    • 3.12.6 EUROPE: DIESEL/GASOLINE/NG VS. BATTERY ELECTRIC BUS SALES, BY COUNTRY
    • 3.12.7 EUROPE: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY LENGTH AND OEM, ALONG WITH THEIR MODELS
    • 3.12.8 EUROPE: MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS - SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE OF ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS
    • 3.12.9 GROWTH OF EUROPEAN TOTAL INDUSTRY VOLUME (TIV)
  • 3.13 NORTH AMERICA: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
    • 3.13.1 NORTH AMERICA: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET - KEY INFLUENCING TRENDS
    • 3.13.2 NORTH AMERICA: ELECTRIC BUS INCENTIVE PROGRAMS
    • 3.13.3 NORTH AMERICA: KEY ELECTRIC BUS OEMS
    • 3.13.4 NORTH AMERICA: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
    • 3.13.5 NORTH AMERICA: BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
    • 3.13.6 NORTH AMERICA: DIESEL/GASOLINE/NG VS. BATTERY ELECTRIC BUS SALES, BY COUNTRY
    • 3.13.7 NORTH AMERICA: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY LENGTH AND OEM, ALONG WITH THEIR MODELS AND FLEET SIZES
    • 3.13.8 NORTH AMERICA: OEM MODELS, TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS, AND FLEET SIZES
    • 3.13.9 US: STANDARD BUS GUIDELINES (HEIGHT, SEATING, AND PROCUREMENT-RELATED GUIDELINES)
  • 3.14 CHINA: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
    • 3.14.1 CHINA: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET - KEY INFLUENCING TRENDS
    • 3.14.2 CHINA: ELECTRIC BUS INCENTIVE PROGRAMS AND SUBSIDIES FOR TRANSIT BUSES AND COACHES
    • 3.14.3 CHINA: KEY ELECTRIC BUS OEMS
    • 3.14.4 CHINA: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
    • 3.14.5 CHINA BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
    • 3.14.6 CHINA: OEMS MODELS AND TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
    • 3.14.7 CHINA: MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS - SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE OF LARGE AND MEDIUM-SIZED BUS MAKERS
  • 3.15 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
    • 3.15.1 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
    • 3.15.2 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
    • 3.15.3 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): DIESEL/GASOLINE/NG VS. BATTERY ELECTRIC BUS SALES, BY COUNTRY
    • 3.15.4 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): ELECTRIC BUS MARKET CONDITIONS
  • 3.16 INDIA: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
    • 3.16.1 INDIA: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET - KEY INFLUENCING TRENDS
    • 3.16.2 INDIA: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET OVERVIEW
    • 3.16.3 INDIA: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
    • 3.16.4 INDIA: ELECTRIC BUS ORDERS RECEIVED, BY CITY AND BUS MANUFACTURER
    • 3.16.5 INDIA: DEPOT CHARGING VALUE CHAIN WITH DIFFERENT OPERATION MODELS AND MAJOR COMPANIES
    • 3.16.6 INDIA: MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS AND PRODUCT COMPARISON
    • 3.16.7 INDIA: COMPETITIVE BENCHMARKING - 12 M ELECTRIC BUS SPECIFICATIONS FOR MAJOR PLAYERS
    • 3.16.8 INDIA: SUBSIDY REQUIREMENTS TO RISE IN COMING YEARS

4. CONTENT INTRODUCTION

  • 4.1 EXTENDED ELECTRIC BUS MARKET ECOSYSTEM

5. PRODUCT

  • 5.1 DRIVING RANGE VARIATIONS UNDER DIFFERENT CONDITIONS
  • 5.2 EXTERIOR SIZE LIMITATION, BY COUNTRY (REGULATIONS AND CURRENT HARDWARE CONDITIONS)
  • 5.3 NEEDS GROUP, BY PASSENGER CAPACITY AND PASSENGER FLOW
  • 5.4 LENGTH X PAX/NUMBER OF SEATS - EUR, EV/ICE, SINGLE-DECKER
  • 5.5 LENGTH X NUMBER OF SEATS - EUR, EV, SINGLE-DECKER
  • 5.6 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
    • 5.6.1 ELECTRIC MOTOR TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
    • 5.6.2 FUTURE OF BATTERY CHEMISTRIES
    • 5.6.3 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
    • 5.6.4 CHARGING STRATEGIES FOR ELECTRIC BUSES
    • 5.6.5 GROWTH OF ELECTRIC BUS PLATFORMS
  • 5.7 VALUE CHAIN ANALYSIS
  • 5.8 TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP (TCO) AND BILL OF MATERIALS (BOM)

6. CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS

  • 6.1 KEY TRENDS ACROSS CUSTOMER GROUPS (OPERATORS/CITY, DRIVERS, USERS)

7. MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE (MAAS) BUSINESS MODEL FOR ELECTRIC BUSES

  • 7.1 FINANCIAL MODELS
  • 7.2 BUSINESS METRICS ESTIMATES

8. ELECTRIC BUS CASE STUDIES

9. RECOMMENDATIONS