电力市场 - 增长、趋势、COVID-19 影响和预测 (2023-2028)

在预测期内，电力市场预计将以超过 3% 的复合年增长率增长。

COVID-19 对 2020 年的市场产生了负面影响。 市场现在处于大流行前的水平。

主要亮点

• 从中期来看，根据能源消费需求增加发电量以及发电行业动态变化等因素预计将推动电力市场需求。
• 另一方面，占世界发电量大部分的燃煤电厂关闭以及原油价格波动导致上游项目延期等因素预计将阻碍发电量的增长电力市场。
• 但是，化石燃料发电厂已关闭，风能、太阳能和小水电等可再生能源发电量增加，对电动汽车和热泵的需求增加，互连器的出口需求增加。作为结果，输配电线路的安装要求不断增加，为大公司创造了很多机会。
• 由于亚太地区的高城市化率和不断增长的电力需求，尤其是在中国和印度，预计亚太地区将成为预测期内最大的市场。

电力市场趋势

火力发电是最大市场

• 发电使用多种能源，从煤炭和石油等化石燃料到风能和太阳能等可再生能源。 发电的能源结构以煤炭、石油和天然气等化石燃料为中心，占世界能源结构的近65%。
• 由于国内燃料价格低廉，发电组合严重偏向煤炭，而且煤炭的贡献很高。 由于增加其他常规能源（如水力、核能和天然气）的限制，煤炭在能源结构中的份额逐年增加。
• 燃煤发电厂是使用最广泛的火力发电厂，预计到 2025 年将占世界电力供应的最大份额。 更高效的减少污染物（每千瓦）的技术，例如超超临界煤技术，将取代老化的发电厂。
• 根据 2022 年 BP 世界能源统计评论，燃煤发电厂将在 2021 年占全球总发电量的最大份额。 从全球来看，2021年煤炭发电仍将是发电的主流燃料，占比将从2020年的35.1%提升至36%。 2021年煤炭发电量达到10244太瓦时。
• 2022 年 3 月，墨西哥国有电力公司 Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) 宣布了五个项目的直接订单，预计将增加 226 万千瓦的天然气发电能力。 瓦锡兰赢得了两座内燃发电厂的订单，即位于下加利福尼亚州的 429MW CCI Mexicali Oriente 电厂和位于索诺拉的 202MW CCI Parque Industrial 电厂。 其余三个是联合循环工厂。 三菱电机赢得了位于瓜纳华託的 442 兆瓦 CCC 圣路易斯波托西和 932 兆瓦 CCC 萨拉曼卡电厂，最后是 TSK 和西门子能源赢得了克雷塔罗的 CCC El Sauz ll（256 兆瓦）。
• 2021 年 11 月，瓦锡兰与巴西*矿业和能源部签署了一份合同，为巴西的三座燃气发动机发电厂提供总装机容量为 150 兆瓦的发电厂。 该项目将以EPC（工程、采购和施工）的方式交付给位于巴西东南部圣埃斯皮里图州的现有UTE Luiz Oscar Rodrigues de Melo和UTE Viana 1电厂以及新建的UTE Povoacao 1电厂。
• 综上所述，火力发电在电力市场中的份额预计在预测期内最高。

亚太地区主导市场

• 亚太地区拥有超过 50% 的世界人口和 60% 的世界大城市。 未来，非洲大陆将面临日益增长的电力需求，因为随着人口增长和工业化的迅速发展，数百万新客户将获得电力供应。 例如，根据《BP 世界能源 2022 年统计评论》，该地区的一次能源消耗量将从 2013 年的 220.48 艾焦耳增加到 2021 年的 272.45 艾焦耳。
• 在亚太地区的许多国家/地区，由于电网不足，偏远和农村地区可能无法用电。 为了向这些地区输送电力，亚太地区的国家正在大力投资发展电网。
• 中国主导着该地区的电力市场，能源部门正在转向更清洁、更可持续的能源，以减少碳排放并在 2060 年实现零碳排放。我们正在朝着新的方向前进。
• 此外，到 2021 年，中国将拥有世界上最大的可再生能源装机容量。 根据中国国家能源局的数据，到2021年底，全国可再生能源发电量将达到1.063太瓦，约占总发电量的44.8%。 中国还制定了到 2030 年可再生能源装机容量达到 1.2 太瓦左右的目标，这一目标触手可及，这直接推动了该国的可再生能源电力市场。
• 例如，中国政府已宣布计划在 2022 年和 2030 年在戈壁沙漠地区建设 450GW 的太阳能和风力发电厂，以实现其可再生能源目标。
• 根据国际能源署 (IEA) 的数据，印度是世界第三大能源消费国。 这是由于收入水平的提高和生活水平的提高，这直接促进了印度电力市场的发展。 据信，未来几年印度数百万家庭将购买新的电器和空调，预测期间将需要增加大量电网以支持其增长。
• 此外，印度政府大力投资可再生能源以减少碳足迹，实施了各种大型可持续电力项目，大力推广绿色能源。 截至 2021 年，印度拥有 147 吉瓦的可再生能源装机容量，目标是到 2030 年实现约 450 吉瓦 (GW) 的可再生能源装机容量，这将直接支撑市场。。
• 例如，到 2022 年，National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) 和 Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) 将在特伦甘纳邦运营印度最大的漂浮式太阳能发电厂，容量为 100 兆瓦，每个发电厂产生 210 万吨二氧化碳排放量年。预计数量将减少。
• 因此，基于扩张和升级等因素，随着电力需求的增加，预计将对电力市场产生积极影响，尤其是在亚太地区。

其他好处

• Excel 格式的市场预测 (ME) 表
• 三个月的分析师支持

内容

第一章介绍

• 调查范围
• 市场定义
• 调查假设

第二章研究方法论

第 3 章执行摘要

第 4 章市场概述

• 简介
• 全球装机容量 (GW) 和到 2027 年的预测
• 到 2027 年的全球发电量和预测 (TWh)
• 可再生能源的能源结构（世界）（2021 年）
• 一次能源消耗，单位：MTOE (2011-2021)
• 近期趋势和发展
• 政府法规和政策
• 市场动态
  • 司机
  • 约束因素
• 供应链分析
• 波特的五力分析
  • 供应商的议价能力
  • 消费者的议价能力
  • 新进入者的威胁
  • 替代品的威胁
  • 竞争公司之间的敌对关係

第 5 章市场细分

• 发电 - 电源
  • 火力
  • 水电
  • 核能
  • 可再生能源
• 输配电 (T&D)
• 按地区
  • 北美
  • 亚太地区
  • 欧洲
  • 南美洲
  • 中东

第六章竞争格局

• 併购、合资、合作、协议
• 主要参与者采用的策略
• 公司简介
  • State Grid Corporation of China
  • Engie SA
  • Electricite de France S.A.
  • Iberdrola, S.A.
  • National Thermal Power Corporation Limited
  • NTPC Ltd
  • Tokyo Electric Power Company Holding Inc
  • Enel S.p.A.
  • Korea Electric Power Corporation（KEPCO）
  • Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc.

第7章 市场机会未来动向

Power Market is projected to register a CAGR of over 3% during the forecast period.

COVID-19 negatively impacted the market in 2020. Presently the market has now reached pre-pandemic levels.

Key Highlights

• Over the medium term, factors such as the growing electricity generation along with energy consumption demand, with changing power generation industry dynamics, are expected to drive the demand for the power market.
• On the other hand, the phasing out of coal-based power plants, which account for a major share of power generation around the globe, and volatile crude oil prices leading to delays in several upstream projects are expected to hinder the growth of the Power Market.
• Nevertheless, the increasing closures of fossil-fueled generation, an influx of wind, solar, small hydro, and other renewables-based power generation, rising electric vehicle and heat pump demand, and increasing export requirements via interconnectors have resulted in increased requirements for installation of Transmission and Distributions (T&D) lines, creating several opportunities for the major companies.
• Asia-Pacific is expected to be the largest market during the forecast period, owing to the high urbanization growth rate and growing electricity demand, mainly from China and India.

Power Market Trends

Thermal Source for Power Generation to be the Largest Market

• Power generation uses a variety of sources ranging from fossil fuels like coal and oil to renewable sources like wind and solar. The energy mix for electricity generation is dominated by fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas, with the three constituting almost 65% of the global energy mix.
• The power generation mix is heavily skewed toward coal, with a major contribution, because of cheaper domestic fuel availability. Its share in the mix has increased over the years due to constraints in adding other conventional generation sources-hydro, nuclear, and gas.
• Coal thermal power plants are the most widely used thermal power plant and are expected to have the largest share in the electricity power (global) supply, in 2025, in the world. More efficient technologies like Ultra Supercritical Coal Technology, which reduces pollution (per KW), are likely to replace aging power plants.
• As per BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022, in 2021, a coal-based thermal power plant holds the largest share in total global power generation. Globally, the amount of power generated from coal remained the dominant fuel for power generation in 2021, with its share increasing to 36%, up from 35.1% in 2020. In 2021, coal-based power generation had reached 10244 TWh.
• In March 2022, Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE), the state-owned electric utility of Mexico, issued direct awards on five projects expected to add 2.26 GW of gas-based power generation capacity. Wartsila was awarded contracts to build two internal combustion engine power plants: the 429 MW CCI Mexicali Oriente plant in Baja California, and the 202 MW CCI Parque Industrial in Sonora. The other three are combined cycle plants: CCC San Luis Potosi (442MW) in CCC San Luis Potosi and the 932MW CCC Salamanca plant in Guanajuato, both awarded to Mitsubishi Power; and finally, CCC El Sauz ll (256MW) in Queretaro, with the contract going to TSK and Siemens Energy.
• In November 2021, Wartsila signed a contract with the Brazilian*Ministry of Mines and Energy to supply three gas engine power plants with a combined output of 150 MW in Brazil. The projects are going to be delivered on Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) basis to existing power plant sites UTE Luiz Oscar Rodrigues de Melo and UTE Viana 1, as well as a new power plant UTE Povoacao1, all located in EspiritoSanto, a state in Southeast Region of Brazil.
• Therefore, based on the factors mentioned above, the thermal source for power generation is expected to be the largest segment of the Power Market during the forecast period.

Asia-Pacific to Dominate the Market

• Asia-Pacific is home to more than 50% of the global population and 60% of the large cities, and in the future, the continent will face increasing demand for power as millions of new customers are gaining access to electricity, with rapid population growth and industrialization. For instance, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022, the primary energy consumption in the region increased from 220,48 exajoules in 2013 to 272.45 exajoules in 2021.
• Many countries in Asia-Pacific have inadequate transmission and distribution (T&D) networks, and hence, electricity is not available in some of the remote and rural areas. To bring electricity to these areas, the countries in the region are investing heavily in building a transmission line network.
• China dominates the power market in the region, and the energy sector is moving in a new direction by transitioning toward cleaner and sustainable energy sources to reduce carbon emissions and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2060.
• Furthermore, as of 2021, China has the most significant renewable installed capacity globally. According to China's National Energy Administration, the country's renewable installed capacity reached 1.063 terawatts by the end of 2021, accounting for about 44.8% of the total installed generation capacity. In addition, China has set a target for about 1.2 terawatts of renewable installed capacity by 2030, which it is expected to reach comfortably, directly aiding the renewable power market in the nation.
• For instance, in 2022, the government of China announced that it plans to build 450 gigawatts of solar and wind energy power plants in the Gobi desert regions to achieve the renewable energy target by 2030.
• According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is the third largest energy-consuming country globally, owing to the rising income levels and improving standards of living, which directly aids the power market in the nation. Over the coming years, millions of Indian households will buy new appliances and air-conditioners, and to support the growth, the nation will have to add a large amount of power systems in the forecast period.
• In addition, the Government of India is investing heavily in renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions and undertaking various large-scale sustainable power projects, and promoting green energy heavily. As of 2021, India's installed renewable energy capacity stood at 147 GW, and the country is targeting about 450 Gigawatt (GW) of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, which will directly aid the market.
• For instance, in 2022, National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) commissioned the largest floating solar power plant in India with a capacity of 100 MW in the state of Telangana, which will reduce the carbon dioxide emission by 2,10,000 tonnes per year.
• Therefore, based on the factors like expansions and upgrades, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, along with increased power demand, is expected to have a positive impact on the power market.

Power Market Competitor Analysis

The Power Market is fragmented. Some of the major players (not in particular order) in the market include State Grid Corporation of China, Iberdrola, S.A., Tokyo Electric Power Company Holding Inc, NTPC Ltd, and Electricite de France S.A., among others.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Scope of the Study
• 1.2 Market Definition
• 1.3 Study Assumptions

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET OVERVIEW

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Installed Power Generation Capacity and Forecast in GW, till 2027
• 4.3 Electricity Generation and Forecast ,in TWh, Global, till 2027
• 4.4 Renewables Energy Mix, Global, 2021
• 4.5 Primary Energy Consumption, in MTOE, 2011-2021
• 4.6 Recent Trends and Developments
• 4.7 Government Policies and Regulations
• 4.8 Market Dynamics
  • 4.8.1 Drivers
  • 4.8.2 Restraints
• 4.9 Supply Chain Analysis
• 4.10 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.10.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.10.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
  • 4.10.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.10.4 Threat of Substitutes Products and Services
  • 4.10.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION

• 5.1 Power Generation - Source
  • 5.1.1 Thermal
  • 5.1.2 Hydroelectric
  • 5.1.3 Nuclear
  • 5.1.4 Renewables
• 5.2 Power Transmission and Distribution (T&D)
• 5.3 Geography
  • 5.3.1 North America
  • 5.3.2 Asia-Pacific
  • 5.3.3 Europe
  • 5.3.4 South America
  • 5.3.5 Middle-East

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
• 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
• 6.3 Company Profiles
  • 6.3.1 State Grid Corporation of China
  • 6.3.2 Engie SA
  • 6.3.3 Electricite de France S.A.
  • 6.3.4 Iberdrola, S.A.
  • 6.3.5 National Thermal Power Corporation Limited
  • 6.3.6 NTPC Ltd
  • 6.3.7 Tokyo Electric Power Company Holding Inc
  • 6.3.8 Enel S.p.A.
  • 6.3.9 Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO)
  • 6.3.10 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS