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市场调查报告书
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1683456

东南亚水电市场 -市场占有率分析、产业趋势与统计、成长预测（2025-2030 年）

Southeast Asia Hydropower - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 110 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3个工作天内

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简介目录

东南亚水力发电市场规模预计将从 2025 年的 73.78 吉瓦扩大到 2030 年的 93.27 吉瓦，预测期内（2025-2030 年）的复合年增长率为 4.8%。

东南亚水电市场-IMG1

关键亮点

  • 从长远来看，水力发电厂投资增加和可再生能源需求成长等因素预计将推动市场成长。
  • 然而，与太阳能和风力发电等其他可再生能源相比，水力发电的初始成本较高，预计会抑制市场成长。
  • 预计发电工程效率的提高和生产成本的下降将为东南亚市场参与企业创造充足的机会。
  • 由于水力发电领域投资不断增加且越南拥有该地区最大的水力发电装置容量，预计越南将成为该地区最大的水力发电市场。

东南亚水力发电市场趋势

大型水力发电领域可望主导市场

  • 大型水力发电厂利用流动的水推动巨大的水轮机来产生可再生能源。为了产生大量的水力发电，必须将水储存在湖泊、水库和水坝中，并进行调节，以便用于发电、灌溉、生活用水和工业用途。
  • 大型水力发电厂分为四种：传统型水力发电厂、抽水蓄能电站、径流电站和潮汐电站。大型水力发电厂的安装成本很高，但发电成本较低，尤其是在大城市。根据国际可再生能源机构的数据，2022年运作的新水力发电发电工程的全球加权平均平准化能源成本（LCOE）为0.048美元/千瓦时。
  • 根据寮国《2020-2030年电力发展规划》，到2025年，寮国的水力发电装置容量预计将超过14吉瓦。到2025年，可再生能源将占总能源结构的30%，而水力发电预计将成为这一成长的主要组成部分。
  • 作为东南亚国家联盟 (ASEAN) 能源合作行动计画 (APAEC) 2021-2025 的一部分，该国计划在 2025 年实现 35% 的装置容量来自可再生能源发电，这可能需要安装 35-40GW。 2023年3月，印尼政府开工兴建Mentarang Induk水力发电厂，计划需投资26亿美元。该发电厂容量超过 1.3 吉瓦，由 PT Kayan Hydropower Nusantara 开发，该公司是 PT Adaro Energy Indonesia、PT Kayan Patria Pratama Group 和 Sarawak Energy 的合资企业。
  • 此外，越南、柬埔寨、缅甸、菲律宾等东南亚国家2023年水力发电装置容量分别为2,263.9万千瓦、179.1万千瓦、326.9万千瓦、382.6千万瓦。 2023 年 11 月，菲律宾可再生 Energy Holdings Corporation 的水电子公司）运作一座 1.4 兆瓦的现代化径流式水力发电厂，这是 REDC 投资组合中的第八座水力发电厂。下拉巴亚特发电厂位于奎松省雷亚尔，位于上拉巴亚特水力发电厂之间，利用下拉巴亚特河的水力，预计每年每小时发电 8 千兆瓦。
  • 由于这些原因，大型水力发电厂预计将占据市场主导地位。

越南可望主导市场

  • 越南是东南亚最大的水力发电市场之一。根据越南电力局（EVN）预测，截至2023年，越南水力发电量将达到2,263.9万千瓦，占全国总设备容量的近30%。
  • 水力发电占全国总发电量的很大一部分，将近30.77%。越南经济严重依赖水力发电来满足国内需求。然而，随着国内需求激增，燃煤电厂发电量的比重不断增加，而其他再生能源虽然稳定成长，但在总发电量中所占比例仍然较小。
  • 越南传统上依赖水力发电，是一个成熟的水力发电市场，已开发了近60％的总水力发电潜力。根据《越南能源展望》，越南大中型水力发电潜力（定义为30MW以上，通常与水库相连）已接近充分挖掘。然而，该河流域的小型水力发电潜力仍未开发，约11吉瓦。
  • 儘管如此，越南政府仍在投资开发该国剩余的大型水力发电潜力，以实现排放目标，同时努力满足不断增长的电力需求，预计2021年至2030年间电力需求将增长近6-7％。
  • 2024 年 1 月，越南电力公司 (EVN) 在河内举行的第 46 届越南-寮国双边合作政府间委员会上签署了 19 份购电协议，从寮国 26 座水力发电厂购买 2,689 兆瓦电力。该协议的签署标誌着越南与寮国电力合作的不断深化。
  • 由于上述因素，预计越南将在 2024-2029 年期间占据研究市场的主导地位。

东南亚水电产业概况

东南亚水电市场中等细分化。该市场的主要企业包括越南电力建设股份公司、泰国电力局、PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara、Tenaga Nasional Berhad 和 Andrtiz AG。

其他福利

  • Excel 格式的市场预测 (ME) 表
  • 3 个月的分析师支持

目录

第 1 章 简介

  • 研究范围
  • 市场定义
  • 调查前提

第二章调查方法

第三章执行摘要

第四章 市场概况

  • 介绍
  • 2029年水力发电容量及预测（单位：GW）
  • 可再生能源结构（2023 年）
  • 未来规划主要水力发电发电工程一览（东南亚主要国家）
  • 目前和即将进行的东南亚水电竞标清单
  • 东南亚主要水力发电顾问公司及财团名单
  • 最新趋势和发展
  • 政府法规和政策
  • 市场动态
    • 驱动程式
      • 增加水力发电投资
      • 政府优惠政策
    • 限制因素
      • 采用其他替代清洁能源来源
  • 供应链分析
  • 波特五力分析
    • 供应商的议价能力
    • 消费者议价能力
    • 新进入者的威胁
    • 替代品的威胁
    • 竞争对手之间的竞争

第五章 市场区隔

  • 按类型
    • 大型水力发电
    • 小型水力
    • 抽水蓄能发电
  • 按地区
    • 越南
    • 印尼
    • 马来西亚
    • 寮国
    • 菲律宾
    • 泰国
    • 其他东南亚国家

第六章 竞争格局

  • 併购、合资、合作、协议
  • 主要企业策略
  • 公司简介
    • Vietnam Electricity Construction JSC
    • Andritz AG
    • Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
    • PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara
    • Tenaga Nasional Berhad
    • Toshiba Corporation
    • General Electric Company
    • Aboitiz Power Corporation
    • Power Construction Corporation of China Ltd
  • 市场排名分析

第七章 市场机会与未来趋势

  • 高效能水力涡轮机的创新
简介目录
Product Code: 71551

The Southeast Asia Hydropower Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 73.78 gigawatt in 2025 to 93.27 gigawatt by 2030, at a CAGR of 4.8% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

Southeast Asia Hydropower - Market - IMG1

Key Highlights

  • In the long term, factors such as increasing investments in hydropower plants and increasing demand for renewable energy are expected to drive the market's growth.
  • However, the high initial cost of hydropower compared to other forms of renewable energies like solar and wind energy is expected to restrain the growth of the market.
  • Nevertheless, technological advancements in efficiency and a decrease in the production cost of hydropower projects are expected to create ample opportunities for market players in Southeast Asia.
  • Vietnam is expected to be the region's largest hydropower market due to increasing investment in the sector and the highest installed capacity of hydropower energy in the region.

Southeast Asia Hydropower Market Trends

The Large Hydropower Segment is Expected to Dominate the Market

  • Large-scale hydropower plants use flowing water to drive huge water turbines and generate renewable energy. To generate significant amounts of hydroelectricity, lakes, reservoirs, and dams must store and regulate water for later release for power generation, irrigation, domestic use, and industrial use.
  • Large-scale hydropower plants can be classified into four types: conventional hydroelectric dams, pumped storage, run-of-the-river, and tidal. Although large hydropower plants are expensive to install, they produce electricity at a low cost, especially in large cities. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, the global weighted average levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of newly commissioned hydropower projects in 2022 was USD 0.048/kWh.
  • According to the Laos Power Development Plan 2020 -2030, the hydropower capacity of Laos is expected to exceed 14 gigawatts by 2025. By 2025, renewable energy may represent 30% of the total energy mix, and hydropower is anticipated to be a major component of this growth.
  • As part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2021-2025, the aim is to reach 35% renewable generation in installed power capacity by 2025, which may require the deployment of 35-40 GW. In March 2023, the Indonesian government began construction works for the Mentarang Induk hydropower plant, and the project requires a USD 2.6 billion investment. With more than 1.3 GW of capacity, the power plant will be developed by PT Kayan Hydropower Nusantara, a joint venture of PT Adaro Energy Indonesia, PT Kayan Patria Pratama Group, and Sarawak Energy.
  • Moreover, in 2023, hydropower installed capacity in Southeast Asian Countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and the Philippines stood at 22.639 GW, 1.791 GW, 3.269 GW, and 3.826 GW. In November 2023, Philippine-based renewable energy producer Repower Energy Development Corporation, the hydropower subsidiary of Pure Energy Holdings Corporation, launched its newest 1.4 MW run-of-river hydropower plant, the eighth of its kind in REDC's portfolio. Located in Real, Quezon, between the Upper Labayat and Tibag hydropower plants, the Lower Labayat plant is estimated to generate 8 gigawatts per hour annually, utilizing the downstream current of the Labayat River.
  • Owing to the above points, large hydropower plants are expected to dominate the market.

Vietnam is Expected to Dominate the Market

  • Vietnam is one of the largest hydropower markets in Southeast Asia. According to the Electricity Authority of Vietnam (EVN), as of 2023, Vietnam had 22.639 GW of hydropower, accounting for nearly 30% of the country's total installed capacity.
  • Hydropower has accounted for a significant share of the country's gross electricity generation mix, accounting for nearly 30.77% of the country's total electricity generation. The Vietnamese economy relied heavily on hydroelectricity to satiate domestic demand. However, as domestic demand increased rapidly, the share of coal-fired generation in electricity rose, along with other renewables, which have grown steadily but occupy a relatively smaller share of the total electricity generation mix.
  • Due to its traditional dependence on hydroelectricity, Vietnam has already developed nearly 60% of its total hydropower potential, making it a mature hydropower market. According to the Vietnam Energy Outlook, the country is close to fully utilizing its potential for large-scale and medium-scale hydropower (defined as greater than 30 MW and typically with a connected reservoir). However, there is still untapped potential for run-of-river small-scale hydro of around 11 GW.
  • Despite this, as the government tries to deal with the growing power demand, which is projected to grow by nearly 6-7% during 2021-2030 while realizing its emission reduction targets, the Vietnamese government is investing in the development of the remaining large-scale hydro potential in the country.
  • In January 2024, State utility Vietnam Electricity (EVN) entered into 19 power purchase agreements for the acquisition of 2,689 MW of electricity from 26 hydropower plants in Laos during the 46th meeting of the Vietnam-Laos Intergovernmental Committee for Bilateral Cooperation in Hanoi. The signing of the agreements demonstrated deeper cooperation in electricity between Vietnam and Laos.
  • Due to the above-mentioned factors, Vietnam is expected to dominate the market studied between 2024 and 2029.

Southeast Asia Hydropower Industry Overview

The Southeast Asian hydropower market is moderately fragmented. Some of the key players in this market are Vietnam Electricity Construction JSC, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, Tenaga Nasional Berhad, and Andrtiz AG.

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Scope of the Study
  • 1.2 Market Definition
  • 1.3 Study Assumptions

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET OVERVIEW

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Hydropower Installed Capacity and Forecast in GW, till 2029
  • 4.3 Renewable Energy Mix, 2023
  • 4.4 List of Major Upcoming Hydropower Projects, By Major Countries, Southeast Asia
  • 4.5 List of On-going and Upcoming Hydropower Tenders, Southeast Asia
  • 4.6 List of Major Hydropower Consulting Companies and Consortiums, Southeast Asia
  • 4.7 Recent Trends and Developments
  • 4.8 Government Policies and Regulations
  • 4.9 Market Dynamics
    • 4.9.1 Drivers
      • 4.9.1.1 Increasing Investments in Hydropower Generation
      • 4.9.1.2 Favorable Government Policies
    • 4.9.2 Restraints
      • 4.9.2.1 Adoption of Other Alternative Clean Energy Sources
  • 4.10 Supply Chain Analysis
  • 4.11 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.11.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.11.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
    • 4.11.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.11.4 Threat of Substitutes Products and Services
    • 4.11.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION

  • 5.1 By Type
    • 5.1.1 Large Hydropower
    • 5.1.2 Small Hydropower
    • 5.1.3 Pumped Storage
  • 5.2 By Geography
    • 5.2.1 Vietnam
    • 5.2.2 Indonesia
    • 5.2.3 Malaysia
    • 5.2.4 Laos
    • 5.2.5 Philippines
    • 5.2.6 Thailand
    • 5.2.7 Rest of Southeast Asia

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
  • 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
  • 6.3 Company Profiles
    • 6.3.1 Vietnam Electricity Construction JSC
    • 6.3.2 Andritz AG
    • 6.3.3 Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
    • 6.3.4 PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara
    • 6.3.5 Tenaga Nasional Berhad
    • 6.3.6 Toshiba Corporation
    • 6.3.7 General Electric Company
    • 6.3.8 Aboitiz Power Corporation
    • 6.3.9 Power Construction Corporation of China Ltd
  • 6.4 Market Ranking Analysis

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

  • 7.1 Technological Innovations in Efficient Hydropower Turbines