电信营运商资本投资预测：2023 年第三季度

最新预测称，2023 年营运商资本支出将达到 3,200 亿美元，较 2022 年的 3,280 亿美元略有下降。 营运商市场厂商早期发布的第三季（Q3 2023）收入报告对此预测提出了质疑。

美洲的下滑比预期更为严重，亚洲预计在 2023 年出现成长，但并未实现。 主要供应商报告收入年比大幅下降，原因是库存调整、宏观经济不确定性（特别是利率）和营运商支出下降。 主要供应商Ericsson和Nokia的电信网路基础设施销售额（Telco NI）以美元计算与去年同期相比分别下降了 11% 和 16%。 根据同一指数，NEC年增1%，Fujitsu下降52%，Samsung下降41%，Adtran下降29%，Casa下降7%，Juniper下降20%，主要是光纤。供应商Clearfield、Corning、CommScope、Prysmian均出现了两位数的跌幅。 MTN Consulting 将于下个月正式更新营运商预测。 在此之前，评论指出支出前景弱于预期。 预计2023年营运商的资本投资将在3,000亿美元至3,100亿美元左右。

范例

本报告研究了全球营运商的资本支出预测，并提供了市场概况、通讯资本投资趋势、供应商收入以及进入市场的供应商概况。

目录

摘要

简介

分析

• 通讯设备投资报告
• 通讯 NI 供应商收入

展望

附录

上市公司

• A10 Networks
• Adtran
• Alphabet (GCP)
• Amazon Web Services (AWS)
• Amdocs
• Aviat Networks
• Casa Systems
• Clearfield
• CommScope
• Corning
• Ericsson
• Fiberhome
• Fujitsu Limited
• Hengtong Optic
• Huawei
• Infinera
• Juniper Networks
• MasTec
• Microsoft (Azure)
• NEC Corp
• NetScout Systems
• Nokia
• Prysmian
• Samsung Electronics
• ZTE

This comment provides an early review of 3Q23 market growth and spending metrics for the telecommunications operator (telco) market. MTN Consulting's latest forecast called for $320B of telco capex in 2023, down only slightly from the $328B recorded in 2022. Early 3Q23 revenue reports from vendors selling into the telco market call this forecast into question.

SAMPLE VIEW

The dip in the Americas is worse than expected, and Asia's expected 2023 growth has not materialized. Key vendors are reporting significant YoY drops in revenue, pointing to inventory corrections, macroeconomic uncertainty (interest rates, in particular), and weaker telco spending. Network infrastructure sales to telcos (Telco NI) for key vendors Ericsson and Nokia dropped 11% and 16% YoY in 3Q23, respectively, measured in US dollars. By the same metric, NEC, Fujitsu and Samsung saw +1%, -52%, and -41% YoY growth; Adtran, Casa, and Juniper declined 29%, 7%, and 20%; fiber-centric vendors Clearfield, Corning, CommScope, and Prysmian all saw double digit declines. MTN Consulting will update its operator forecast formally next month. In advance, this comment flags a weaker spending outlook than expected. Telco capex for 2023 is likely to come in around $300-$310B.

Organizations mentioned:

Table of Contents

Summary

Introduction

Analysis

• Telco capex reports
• Telco NI vendor earnings

Outlook

Appendix

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Telco capex by region (US$B), 2020-24, per 7/23 forecast
• Figure 2: YoY % change in Telco NI revenues for select vendors