网路营运商资本支出展望（2024 年第四季版）：电信公司持平，但人工智慧驱动的生成式资料中心炒作将推动电信资本支出在 2024 年超过 6,000 亿美元，其中 Scalers 预计将引领市场

本报告提供了网路营运商市场的最新预测，包括三个细分市场的营运商群体：营运商、网路扩展商和 CNNO（营运商中立网路营运商）。该报告按季度涵盖超过 175 家营运商，反映了截至 2024 年第三季末的市场状况。该预测包括所有部门的总收入、资本支出和员工人数，以及每个部门的其他指标。

2024年三大业务集团营收规模为4.48兆美元（2023年：4.27兆美元），资本投资额为6,120亿美元（2023年：5,480亿美元），员工人数为预估为886 万（2023 年：881 万）。

视觉

报告要点：

供应商可瞄准的市场：技术供应商范围从GPU 伺服器晶片到光纤接头盒、无线天线、网路建设和云端软体，以及本次预测中追踪的三个营运商每个细分市场销售不同的产品和服务。这些产品包括各种各样的东西，包括GPU伺服器晶片、光纤连接外壳、无线天线、网路建设、云端软体等等。

2011年，三大板块的资本投资总额为3,360亿美元，其中90%投资于业者。到2028年，这三个细分市场的总资本投资预计将达到6,380亿美元，其中营运商仅占44%。 2011年CNNO的资本支出仅60亿美元，预计2028年将达到约540亿美元。 2011年，Webscale资本支出为290亿美元，占营运商市场的8%。 2023年将达到1,930亿美元（占总数的35%），由于AI/生成AI的需求出现新的上升週期，Webscale目前正在蓬勃发展，2028年首次超过营运商，成为全球规模最大的产业，预计将达到3030亿美元，或 48%。

提及的公司

21Vianet A1 Telekom Austria Advanced Info Service (AIS) Airtel Alibaba Alphabet Altice Europe Altice USA Amazon America Movil American Tower Apple AT&T Axiata Axtel Baidu Balitower Batelco BCE Bezeq Israel Bharti Infratel Bouygues Telecom BSNL BT Cable ONE, Inc. Cell C Cellcom Israel Cellnex CenturyLink Charter Communications China Broadcasting Network China Mobile China Telecom China Tower China Unicom ChinData Chorus Limited Chunghwa Telecom Cincinatti Bell CK Hutchison Cogeco Cogent Cognizant Comcast Consolidated Communications Crown Castle Cyfrowy Polsat CyrusOne Cyxtera DEN Networks Limited Deutsche Telekom Digi Communications Digital Realty DigitalBridge Dish Network Dish TV India Limited Du eBay EI Towers Elisa Entel Equinix Etisalat Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd. Frontier Communications Fujitsu GDS Data Centers Globe Telecom Grupo Clarin Grupo Televisa GTL Infrastructure Hathway Cable & Datacom Limited Helios Towers HPE IBM IBS Towers IHS Towers Iliad SA Internap Inwit JD.COM KDDI Keppel DC REIT KPN KT Level 3 LG Uplus

Liberty Global M1 Maroc Telecom Masmovil Maxis Berhad Megafon Meta (FB) Microsoft Millicom Mobile Telesystems MTN Group MTNL NBN Australia NEXTDC NTT Oi Omantel Ooredoo Oracle Orange PCCW PLDT Proximus QTS Realty Quebecor Telecommunications Rakuten Reliance Communications Limited Reliance Jio Rogers Rostelecom Safaricom Limited SAP Sasktel SBA Communications Shaw Singtel SITI Networks Limited SK Telecom SmarTone SMN (Protelindo) SoftBank Spark New Zealand Limited StarHub STC (Saudi Telecom) Summit Digitel Sunevision Superloop Swisscom Switch Taiwan Mobile Tata Communications Tata Teleservices TDC TDF Infrastructure/Arcus TDS Tele2 AB Telecom Argentina Telecom Egypt Telecom Italia Telefonica Telekom Malaysia Berhad Telenor Telesites Telia Telkom Indonesia Telkom SA Telstra Telus Tencent Thaicom Tower Bersama TPG Telecom Limited True Corp Turk Telekom Turkcell Twitter Uniti Group Veon Verizon Vodafone Vodafone Idea Limited VodafoneZiggo Windstream Yandex Zain Zain KSA Zayo

目录

主要部分是：

• 1.报告要点
• 2.摘要
• 3.网路营运商总数
• 4.通讯业者
• 5.通讯运营商-区域划分
• 6.网路规模
• 7.CNNO
• 8.主要业者的支出预测
• 9.关于我们

以下是 "总计" 标籤上的数字清单：

• 按细分市场划分的资本投资预测：2024 年第四季与 2023 年 12 月预测的差异 (%)
• 按细分市场划分的资本投资预测：2024 年第四季与 2023 年 12 月预测的差异（金额）
• 所有业者的营收成长率：新旧预测
• 电信业者营收成长率：新旧预测的比较
• 资本强度：操作员：新旧预测
• 资本强度：网路缩放器：新旧预测
• 资本强度：CNNO：新旧预测
• 按业务类型划分的收入
• 依业务类型划分的资本投资金额
• 依业务类型划分的资本投资金额
• 依业务类型划分的资本强度
• 依业务类型划分的员工人数
• 每业务类型划分的每位员工收入
• 网路营运商收入（按类型）占全球 GDP 的百分比
• 网路业者员工数量，占世界人口的百分比
• 电信业者收入与用户资金投入金额
• 2024 年第二季支出前 50 名的公司，资本投资额
• 以长期资本密集度排名的前 50 名营运商（2019 年第三季至 2024 年第二季的平均值）

This forecast presents our latest projections for the network operator market, spanning telecommunications operators (telcos), webscalers, and carrier-neutral network operators (CNNOs). The forecast is based on our quarterly coverage of over 175 operators, and reflects market realities through the end of 3Q24. Our forecast includes revenues, capex and employee totals for all segments, and additional metrics for each individual segment. In 2024, we expect the three operator groups to account for $4.48 trillion (T) in revenues (2023: $4.27T), $612 billion (B) in capex (2023: $548B), and 8.86 million (M) employees (2023: 8.81M). This report provides 2011-23 actuals and projections through 2028, and includes projections from the most recent full forecast (12/23) for reference.

VISUALS

Below are the key highlights of the report:

Vendor addressable market: Tech vendors sell various products and services to each of the three operator segments tracked in this forecast - everything from GPU server chips to fiber optic splice enclosures to radio antennas to network construction to cloud software. Their addressable market is directly related to capex, which captures most external technology purchases including a large portion of software & services expenses. In 2011, the starting point of our coverage, total three segment capex was $336 billion, 90% of which was telco. By 2028, three segment capex will reach $638 billion, and telco will account for only 44% of the total. In the intervening years, an important segment of third-party neutral operators of network capacity and space has evolved; CNNO capex was just $6B in 2011 but will hit about $54B by 2028. But the real story of the market is webscale: capex spend by webscalers has surged multiple times as these tech companies innovate, scale and capture more of the world's digital value. In 2011, webscale capex was $29B, or 8% of the comms operator market. In 2023, it reached $193B (35% of total), and AI/GenAI demand is currently fueling it through another up cycle, which will push webscale to about $303B by 2028, or 48% of total (and more than telco for the first time).

Telco

This report includes region- and country-level projections for the telecommunications network operator (TNO, or telco) market. These projections are based upon MTN Consulting's quarterly coverage of 140 telcos across the globe, spanning 1Q11 through 2Q24. For 2024, we expect global telco revenues of $1,772 billion (flat versus 2023), capex of $297B (down 5% YoY), and employees of 4.457 million (down 1.2% YoY). Labor costs per employee in 2024 will be about $60.8K, up from $58.7K in 2023.

Webscale

This report includes projections for the growth and development of the webscale network operator (WNO, or webscale) market. The projections are based on our quarterly coverage of 21 webscalers, spanning 1Q11-2Q24, and they break out China from the rest of the globe. For 2024, we expect global webscale revenues of $2,584 billion, up 9% YoY, $311B in R&D spending (+6% YoY), $267 billion in capex (+39% YoY), and 4.284 million employees (+2.4% YoY). Our forecast for webscale capex has significantly increased since the last update in late 2023. However, the unusual spike in capex underway in 2024 will be followed by two years of decline.

Carrier-neutral

This report also includes projections for the growth and development of the carrier-neutral network operator (CNNO) market. The CNNO market is the smallest of three operator segments tracked by MTN Consulting, but CNNOs play a crucial, complementary role in the communications sector and own and operate a large portion of the world's cell towers, data centers, and fiber networks. Our CNNO projections are based upon quarterly tracking of 47 CNNOs across the globe. Our CNNO tracking is focused on publicly traded companies but we also attempt to capture the significant private equity-led activity in this sector. In 2024, we expect CNNO revenues to total about $125B (+4% YoY), capex of $48B (+16% YoY), and about 120K employees (flat YoY). CNNOs' asset base includes over 1,500 data centers, 3.3 million cell towers, and 1.1 million fiber route miles.

Companies mentioned:

Table of Contents

Key sections include:

• 1. Report Highlights
• 2. Summary
• 3. Network Operator Totals
• 4. Telco
• 5. Telco - Regional Splits
• 6. Webscale
• 7. Carrier-neutral (CNNO)
• 8. Spending outlook for top operators
• 9. About

This report has a large number of figures on each of the main result tabs: totals, telco, telco - regional splits, webscale, and carrier-neutral (CNNO). For a full list of figures please contact us.

Here is a list of figures on the "Totals" tab:

• Capex forecast by segment: 4Q24 v. Dec 2023 forecasts, % difference
• Capex forecast by segment: 4Q24 v. Dec 2023 forecasts, $B difference
• Revenue growth rates, all operators: New vs. old forecast
• Revenue growth rates, Telcos: New vs. old forecast
• Capital intensity, Telcos: New vs. old forecast
• Capital intensity, Webscalers: New vs. old forecast
• Capital intensity, Carrier-neutral operators: New vs. old forecast
• Revenue by operator type, 2011-28 (US$B)
• Capex by operator type, 2011-28 (US$B)
• Capex by operator type, 2011-28: % of total
• Capital intensity by operator type, 2011-28
• Employees by operator type (M)
• Revenues/employee by operator type (US$K)
• Network operator revenues by type, % global GDP
• Network operator employees (M), and % global population
• Telco revenues and capex per sub, 2011-22
• Top 50 spending operators, annualized 2Q24 capex ($B)
• Top 50 operators based on long-term capital intensity (3Q19-2Q24 avg)