美国电信资本支出下降，人工智慧巨擘成为焦点

美国仍是全球最大的电信市场，但预计2024年的电信资本支出将下降8%，至810亿美元，2025年第一季的前景也较为疲软。在政策不确定性、通膨担忧以及新兴的人工智慧泡沫的背景下，电信业者正将重点从投资转向货币化。

本报告基于AT&T、Verizon、Charter、Comcast、T-Mobile (DT)、Lumen和Frontier等主要营运商2025年第一季的财务业绩，分析了美国电信资本支出的近期前景。报告将目前的支出模式与过去的预测进行了比较，确定了影响投资决策的关键因素，并分析了供应商的影响以及人工智慧、大型语言模型(LLM)和资料中心等领域的新兴趋势。

截至2024年底，美国电信市场在全球电信业的占比分别为27%和28%，电信资本支出为805亿美元，营收为5,052亿美元。 2022年至2023年，美国资本支出与收入比率（即资本密集度）将维持在17%至18%之间，远高于历史水准。 2024年，此比率将有所缓和，全年资本密集度将达到15.9%。根据2025年第一季的财报和其他数据，预计这一比率将进一步下降。美国电信公司正优先考虑资本节约和成本削减，并致力于将过往投资与收入挂钩。经济和政策的不确定性仍然很高，总统製造的贸易紧急状态加剧了人们对通膨和经济衰退的担忧。

在电信业者节省资本支出的同时，资料中心市场庞大的投资泡沫却显得颇具讽刺意味。电信公司正努力吸引类似的投资者兴趣。儘管如此，他们仍在探索其他途径，从美国的人工智慧中获利。虽然他们尚未完全驾驭生成式人工智慧的浪潮，但他们正在努力利用人工智慧技术来提高营运效率。

未来几个季度，美国营运商的资本支出仍将受到严格限制。经济成长放缓将损害电信收入。政府债务上升和关税征收将加剧通货膨胀。赴美国际旅客减少和外国投资减少都会导致需求下降。此外，关税可能导致某些用于建立网路的零件出现短缺和价格上涨。来自邻近资料中心的投资激增，将使电信公司更难吸引和留住人才，从而推高劳动成本。然而，电信公司多年来一直在应对这些课题，这次很可能能够安然度过。

调查对象

刊载组织

目录

摘要

市场背景:美国

2025年第一季的业绩

AT&T

Verizon

Comcast

Charter Communications

T-Mobile (DT)

Frontier Communications

Lumen Technologies (ex-CenturyLink)

Dish Network (EchoStar)

附录

US is still world's biggest market but capex dipped 8% in 2024, to $81B, and 1Q25 guidance was weak; telcos shifting to monetization amidst policy uncertainty, inflation fears, and the generative AI bubble.

This brief examines the near-term outlook for telecom capital expenditures (capex) in the US, based on the 1Q25 earnings of key operators, including AT&T, Verizon, Charter, Comcast, T-Mobile (DT), Lumen, Frontier, and more. It analyzes how current spending patterns compare with previous forecasts, highlights the main forces shaping investment decisions, explores implications for vendors, and discusses trends in emerging areas such as AI, large language models (LLMs), and data centers.

The US market closed 2024 with $80.5 billion in telco capex and $505.2 billion in revenues, representing 27% and 28% of global industry totals, respectively. The USA's capex to revenue ratio, or capital intensity, was in the 17-18% range in 2022-23. That was well above historic levels. The ratio started to moderate in 2024. For full-year 2024, capital intensity was 15.9%. Based upon 1Q25 earnings calls and other datapoints, that will fall further. US telcos are looking to monetize recent investments, and more focused on conserving capital and cutting costs. Economic and policy uncertainty continues to be high, with inflation and recession fears stemming from the presidentially contrived trade emergency.

As telcos conserve capex, they must see irony in the massive investment bubble in the data center market. Telcos are struggling to attract the same investor interest. However, telcos are finding other ways to benefit from AI in the US. They aren't positioned well to ride the GenAI wave, but they are deploying AI-based technologies to deliver operational efficiency.

For instance:

• AT&T: using AI to improve call center automation, software development, and digital acquisition. The company says that investment in automation is helping offset labor costs and drive self-service efficiency across sales and support channels.
• Verizon: integrating AI into customer care and network ops; use cases include predictive maintenance, customer service automation, and internal process efficiencies.
• Comcast: AI is deployed across billing automation, network troubleshooting, and customer service, reducing truck rolls and call center loads. Machine learning models are used to predict customer churn and drive targeted promotions.
• Charter: has invested in AI for years, focused on frontline efficiency and self-service; it is reducing repair calls and truck rolls. Internal tools are used to optimize operations, enhance agent support, and reduce OPEX.
• DT/T-Mobile: AI is integral to DT's digital transformation, aiming at Euro-800 million in group cost savings by 2027. AI is used to optimize fiber rollouts, automate customer service (e.g., chatbots solving 50% of issues without humans), and remotely manage 75% of routers. DT says that AI supports operations across service, coding, sales, and mobile RAN monitoring.
• Lumen: Lumen is positioning itself as a backbone provider for the AI economy. Lumen Digital platform uses AI for automation and real-time network control.

Over the next few quarters, US telcos will remain tightly constrained on capex. Weaker economic growth will hit revenues. Rising government debt and tariffs will cause inflation to spike. Fewer international visitors to the US, less foreign investment, both lead to weaker demand. Tariffs may also cause shortages or high costs in certain component parts used in building networks. Labor costs will rise, as the surge in investment from an adjacent sector (data centers) will make it harder for telcos to keep their staff. But telcos have been wrestling with such issues for years, and they will survive this as well.

Research Coverage

Organizations mentioned:

Table of Contents

Summary

Market background - USA

1Q25 results

AT&T

Verizon

Comcast

Charter Communications

T-Mobile (DT)

Frontier Communications

Lumen Technologies (ex-CenturyLink)

Dish Network (EchoStar)

Appendix

List of Figures and Tables:

• Figure 1: Capex forecast for US telco market and recent changes
• Figure 2: Major capex spenders in US telco, CY24 versus 4Q24 ($M and % total)
• Table 1: Summary of US telcos' 2025 capex focus & forecast
• Figure 3: AT&T's total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 4: Verizon's total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 5: Comcast's total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 6: Charter Communications' total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 7: T-Mobile total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 8: Frontier capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 9: Lumen capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 10: Dish Network capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex