纸币的生命週期(～2030年)

The Lifecycle of Banknotes to 2030

出版日期: 2025年08月01日 | 出版商:

Smithers | 英文 99 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内

价格

简介目录

主要的事实

预计到 2029 年，全球纸币印刷市场规模将达到 171 亿美元，自 2024 年起的复合年增长率为 5.3%。
2023 年，美国流通的纸币数量为 546 亿张，总面额达 2.3 兆美元。

儘管非接触式支付和数位钱包的主导地位日益增强，但纸币对于经济韧性、金融包容性、文化认同和隐私保护仍然至关重要。随着我们迈向 2030 年，先进技术的融合、不断变化的公众需求以及对安全性、永续性和可近性的关注将对纸币的生命週期产生重大影响。

本报告描绘了当前纸币的生命週期以及纸币设计、生产和发行的各个步骤，并对现金循环的各个阶段进行了深入分析。报告也探讨了未来五年纸币产业内部的变化和地缘政治因素将如何影响这个生命週期。

概要
基材：纸/聚合物/混合材料
2030 年的纸币基材
安全特征：明确的、机器可读的
关键安全特性：明确的光学技术
案例研究：为什么 1s 如此重要。 3D效果识别
机读安全特征
在细分行业中保持独特性：跨领域趋势
纸币基材与安全特征：2030年的课题
纸币基材与安全特征：2030年的生命週期
结论

到2030年为止的纸币的生命週期:生产

概要
"纸币是买不到的" ：印刷商的信念
全球纸钞生产
2030年的纸钞印刷：创新技术
人工智慧：超越聊天和通用技术（GPT）
数位印刷案例
自动化与智慧製造
透过科技实现永续发展
透过技术和创新实现策略转型

纸币的生命週期2030：现金循环转型

概述
现金循环：永恆的价值流
2030年的现金循环
课题1：减少现金使用
现金使用：准确还是不准确？
囤积与离岸外包
课题2：降低营运成本
课题3：更复杂的假币威胁
场景：现金流通与假币危机
纸钞运输：简化流程
安全的物流网络
集中式与分散式发行模式
纸钞生命週期的终点：开启新的篇章
现金循环的未来：分析
结论

到2030年为止的纸币的生命週期:全球预测

概要
西欧
欧元区
东欧
北美
中南美
亚太地区
澳洲
非洲

简介目录

Key facts:

The global banknote printing market is expected to increase in value to $17.1 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 5.3% from 2024
In 2023, there were 54.6 billion US banknotes in circulation, with a combined face value of $2.3 trillion.

Despite the growing dominance of contactless payments and digital wallets, banknotes remain indispensable for economic resilience, financial inclusion, cultural identity, and privacy. Towards 2030, the banknote lifecycle will be greatly influenced by the integration of advanced technology, evolving public needs, and a strong emphasis on security, sustainability, and accessibility.

This report maps out the current lifecycle of a banknote, and the steps involved in the design, production and circulation of banknotes. It includes a detailed analysis of each stage in the cash cycle, and focuses on how changes within the banknote industry and geopolitical factors will influence this lifecycle over the next five years.

Key Questions:

What forces within the market are driving or hindering banknote use?
Which stages of lifecycle are affected by technological disruptions or developments?
How is the use of digital and physical currencies balanced geographically?
What is the influence of Central Bank Digital Currencies on the lifecycle of banknotes?

This report is essential to:

Organisations active in the printing and distribution of cash
Central banks, state printers and mints
Security print consultants and analysts

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

Report scope
Report objective
Geographic coverage
Methodology
Definitions and abbreviations

Banknote industry: key drivers and trends

Overview
Introduction
Global usage of cash is declining
Cash remains resilient and secure
- Emergence of Central Bank Digital currencies (CBDCs)
Environmental sustainability and lifecycle optimization
Security threats and counterfeiting
Artificial intelligence: unlocking vast potential
- Phy-gital hybrids AKA "smart" banknotes
The tariff years
Strategic acquisitions and industry transformation

Banknote design: concepts to blueprints

Overview
Role of design in the lifecycle of banknotes
- Design and pre-production
- Production and printing
- Quality control and inspection
- Distribution and circulation
- End-of-lifecyle
Banknote design: perpetual evolution
Increased security
Cultural and social reflection
Current case study: the new Euro - a five-year popularity contest
- Public input
Environmental considerations
Banknote design in 2030: meeting today's challenges
- Designing for security
- Designing for digital coexistence and convergence
Sustainability
- Designing for durability
- End-of-life design and recycling
Banknote design: learning and knowing your client
AI and design: complementary roles
- Generative design and aesthetic innovation
- Accelerated design process
- Predictive counterfeit mitigation
- Behavioral analytics and human-centered design
- Lifecycle simulation and durability optimization
- The challenges

Banknote substrates and security feature technologies

Overview
Substrates: paper / polymer / hybrids
- Cotton-based substrates (17th century - current)
- Introduction of polymer substrates (1980s-2000s)
- Composite polymer-paper hybrids (2010s-present)
- Current substrate landscape (2020s)
Banknote substrates in 2030
- Expansion and Refinement of polymer substrates
- Rise of composite substrates
- Recycled materials, extended lifecycles
- Substrates designed for embedded digital features
- Substrate-level security features
- Real-time traceability and lifecycle monitoring
- Nanomaterial and smart material integration
Security features: overt & machine-readable
Primary security features: overt optical technologies
Case study: why 1s matters? The perception of 3D effects
- Perceiving the benefits of 3D Security features
Machine-readable security features
Tough to be unique in a niche industry: cross-cutting trends
- The coin-banknote boundary
- Integration at the substrate level
Banknote substrate and security features: challenges to 2030
- Technological obsolescence assists counterfeiters
- Machine-readable features and BEMS
- The durability of security
- Cost of innovation
- Integration complexity
- Public acceptance and usability
Banknote substrate and security features: the 2030 lifecycle
- A. Design phase
- B. Production phase
- C. Distribution and logistics
- D. Circulation and usage
- E. End-of-life management
Conclusion

Banknote lifecycle to 2030: production

Overview
"You cannot buy a banknote": a printwork's creed
- Banknotes are instruments of trust, not commodities
- Counterfeiting isn't just a crime - it's a national security threat
- High security printers must guarantee value transfer
- Central banks are custodians
- Printers create "error-free" value
Global banknote production
- Current status: 2020-25
- Future outlook: 2025-30
- Staying ahead of the counterfeiters
- Sustainable lifecycle
- The cash paradox
Banknote printing to 2030: innovative technologies
Artificial intelligence: beyond ChatGPT
- AI-designed banknote security printing patterns
- Simulation of substrate and ink interactions
- Intelligent quality control
- Predictive maintenance and workflow optimization
The case for digital printing
- Greater flexibility and customization
- Streamlined prototyping and development cycles
- Enhanced security potential
- Cost and efficiency benefits
- Challenges in adoption and Integration
Automation and smart manufacturing
- Cybersecurity essentials
Sustainability through technology
- Eco-friendly substrates
- Sustainable and secure inks
- Energy-efficient printing processes
Strategic transformation through technology and innovation

Banknote lifecycle in 2030: transforming the cash cycle

Overview
Cash cycle: the perpetual value flow
- Step 1: Central Bank issuance to commercial banks
- Step 2: distribution into the economy
- Step 3: recirculation and handling
- Step 4: destruction of unfit notes
- Step 5: reissue and replacement
The cash cycle in 2030
Challenge #1: decreasing cash usage
Cash usage: (Mis) accurate representations??
- The CIC/GDP ratio
- "Transactional cash" data
- Cash sharing measures
Hoarding and off-shoring
Challenge #2: reducing operational costs
- Cash access and the ATM landscape
- Growing ATM networks
- Energy-efficiency
- Data-driven optimization
  - Increased cash recycling points
- Banknote recirculation and fitness sorting automation
Challenge #3: smarter counterfeiting threats
Scenario : the cash cycle and a counterfeiting crisis
- Case #1: advanced economies
  - Surge in digital payment adoption
  - Increased government support for digital infrastructure
  - Greater scrutiny of anti-fraud capabilities in digital platforms
- Case #2: emerging market economies
  - Slower and more fragmented shift to digital payments
  - Economic disruption in the informal sector
  - Limited institutional capacity to respond
  - Opportunity for leapfrogging-if managed well
Banknote transportation: streamlining movement
Secure logistics networks
Centralized vs distributed issuance models
A banknote's end of life: fueling a new beginning
- Evolving practices
- Recycling and reuse - a circular economy?
The future of the cash cycle: analytics
- Optimizing currency distribution and inventory management
- Forecasting demand through AI and machine learning
- Enhancing ATM and Cash-in-transit efficiency
- Lifecycle management and banknote durability
- Policy development and access to cash
- Integrating physical and digital currency metrics
- Vendor oversight and ecosystem management
Conclusion

Banknote lifecycle in 2030: global outlooks

Overview
Western Europe
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Eurozone
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Eastern Europe
- Design and substrate
- Printing and production
- Circulation and public use
- Sorting and fitness
- End-of-life and recycling
North America
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
South & Central America
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Asia-Pacific
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Australia
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Africa
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability