市场调查报告书
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2030 年核能退役市场预测:按核子反应炉类型、服务类型、容量、应用和地区进行的全球分析Nuclear Decommissioning Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Reactor Type, Service Type, Capacity, Application and By Geography |
根据Stratistics MRC预测,2024年全球核能退役市场规模将达72亿美元,预计2030年将达到108亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为6.9%。
核能发电厂退役涉及清除放射性物质、拆除建筑物并进行修復,以避免对公众健康和环境造成风险。由于放射性物质很危险,这个复杂且受控制的过程可能需要数十年的时间。主要有三种策略:掩埋、延迟拆除和快速拆除。为了确保安全和合规性,由于全球老化核能发电厂数量不断增加,核能发电厂退役正成为关键的重点领域。这需要专业知识、最尖端科技和大量资金。
老化的核能设施
随着核子反应炉接近其使用寿命,安全风险会增加,经济效益会下降,因此必须除役以确保环境完整性和公共。此外,政府和监管机构正在製定更严格的安全关闭标准,从而产生了对专业退役服务来管理复杂合规要求的需求,这正在推动市场成长。
放射性废弃物处置管理
在退役作业期间管理和储存放射性材料是一项挑战,需要仔细规划并严格遵守监管标准。这种复杂性会增加成本并导致计划延误。此外,由于审查和公众宣传,获得废弃物处置场的监管批准和公众核准可能是一个漫长的过程,这可能会影响市场动态,这可能会延迟除役时间表。
全球转向可再生能源
日益增加的政治压力和安全担忧正在加速从核能发电向风能和太阳能等可再生能源的转变。这项变革正在推动过时核能发电厂的除役,这些核电厂在经济上不再可行且无法实现永续性目标。这种变化在一些地区尤其明显,许多国家逐渐放弃核能并转向更环保的选择。
净化成本高
核能退役最重要的方面之一是去污,这是昂贵的。确切的成本将取决于设施的规模和复杂性,但可能从数亿美元到数十亿美元不等。这种财务负担可能会阻碍投资,特别是对于预算紧张的小型、旧设施。技术限制和监管合规等不可预见的问题可能会导致延误和预算超支,进一步导致财务资源紧张并限制市场扩张。
COVID-19 大流行造成劳动力短缺,并因卫生准则限制现场工作人员,对核能退役市场产生了重大影响。这些挑战导致计划进度延误和供应链中断,阻碍了除役活动的进展。因此,许多除役计划面临延长的完成期限,使疫情期间和之后核能除役市场的整体状况变得复杂。
压水式反应炉(PWR)产业预计将在预测期内成为最大的产业
压水式反应炉(PWR)预计在预测期内成长最快,因为它们具有独立的一迴路和二迴路、较低的污染机会以及易于操作和清洁。因此,可以缩短除役时间表并降低成本。随着压水堆的老化以及许多压水堆的运作超出其计划寿命,对除役服务的需求持续增长,推动了市场扩张。
服务类型细分市场预计在预测期内复合年增长率最高
预计服务类型细分市场在预测期内将呈现最高的复合年增长率。这与严格的法规和公共问题相吻合,刺激了对专业服务的需求。当无法快速拆除时,通常会采用安全围护或掩埋,但这些方法会减慢除役,增加成本并使监管合规变得复杂。
由于核能发电厂老化导致需要除役服务的案例数量不断增加,预计北美地区将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率,尤其是在美国。政府法规要求安全且对环境负责的退役,因此需要以合规为重点的计划。随着越来越多的发电厂关闭以及北美向可再生能源过渡,对除役服务的需求正在增加。
随着核子反应炉老化,亚太地区预计将在预测期内呈现最高成长率,其中韩国和日本对除役服务的需求将会增加。特别是在日本,2011 年福岛灾难加剧了安全问题,加强了立法併计划逐步淘汰老化的核子反应炉。此外,日本、韩国和台湾政府也同样强烈强调安全除役的必要性,并要求业者遵循除役指南。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Nuclear Decommissioning Market is accounted for $7.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $10.8 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 6.9% during the forecast period. Nuclear decommissioning, which involves removing radioactive materials, dismantling buildings, and restoring to avoid risks to the public's health and the environment, is the safe retirement of nuclear plants after their operating life. Because radioactive materials are dangerous, this intricate and controlled procedure can take decades. Entombment, delayed disassembly, and quick dismantling are the three primary strategies. In order to ensure safety and regulatory compliance, nuclear decommissioning is becoming a crucial emphasis area because to the growing number of aged nuclear sites globally. This requires specialist knowledge, cutting-edge technology, and substantial financial resources.
Aging nuclear facilities
As nuclear reactors near the end of their operating lives, safety hazards rise and their economic viability declines, decommissioning is therefore necessary to guarantee both environmental preservation and public safety. Moreover stricter criteria for safe closure are being imposed by governments and regulatory agencies, which is creating a demand for specialized decommissioning services to manage intricate compliance requirements which boosts the markets growth.
Managing radioactive waste disposal
During decommissioning, managing and storing radioactive materials is a challenging task that necessitates careful planning and strict adherence to regulatory norms. This intricacy might raise expenses and cause project delays. Furthermore, obtaining regulatory clearance and public acceptance for waste disposal sites can be a drawn-out procedure that is subject to examination and public outreach, which can affect market dynamics and delay the decommissioning schedule.
Global shift towards renewable energy sources
Growing political pressure combined with safety concerns is hastening the transition away from nuclear power and toward renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. The decommissioning of outdated nuclear sites, which are no longer financially feasible or consistent with sustainability objectives, is being driven by this change. This change is especially noticeable in few areas, where many nations are gradually moving away from nuclear energy and toward greener options.
High decontamination costs
One of the most important aspects of nuclear decommissioning is decontamination, which is expensive. The magnitude and complexity of the facility will determine the exact cost, which can range from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars. Investment may be discouraged by this financial burden, particularly in smaller, older institutions with tighter budgets. Unexpected issues like technology constraints or regulatory compliance can cause delays and budget overruns, further taxing financial resources and limiting market expansion.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the nuclear decommissioning market by causing labor shortages and restricting on-site personnel due to health guidelines. These challenges led to delays in project timelines and disruptions in supply chains, hindering the progress of decommissioning activities. As a result, many decommissioning projects faced extended completion deadlines, complicating the overall landscape of the nuclear decommissioning market during and after the pandemic.
The pressurized water reactor (PWR) segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The pressurized water reactor (PWR) is expected to be the largest during the forecast period because their primary and secondary loops are independent, PWRs reduce the possibility of contamination and are simpler to run and clean. This results in shortened decommissioning schedules and reduced expenses. Decommissioning services are becoming more and more necessary as PWRs age and many of them operate beyond their planned lifespan, which is propelling market expansion.
The service type segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The service type segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period because it can be completed quickly and within regulatory control, immediate dismantling is a preferred service type that accelerates the availability of land. This is in line with strict regulations and worries about public safety, which fuels the need for specialized services. When quick dismantling isn't possible, safe enclosure and entombments are frequently employed; however, these methods might result in protracted decommissioning times, which raise costs and complicate regulatory compliance.
North America is expected to have the largest market share over the projection period owing to the increasing number of decommissioning services are being required due to North America's aging nuclear fleet, especially in the United States. Compliance-focused projects are necessary because government rules necessitate safe and environmentally responsible decommissioning. The need for decommissioning services is increasing as more plants close and North America shifts to renewable energy sources.
Asia Pacific is anticipated to witness the highest rate of growth during the forecast period owing to their aging nuclear power reactors, South Korea and Japan are seeing an increase in demand for decommissioning services. Safety concerns were raised by the Fukushima accident in 2011, which resulted in tighter laws and the scheduled phase-out of outdated reactors, particularly in Japan. Additionally the governments of these nations-Japan, South Korea, Taiwan-have likewise placed a strong emphasis on the necessity of safe decommissioning and mandated that operators follow decommissioning guidelines.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Nuclear Decommissioning Market include AECOM, Babcock International Group, Bechtel Corporation, Beyond Nuclear , BWX Technologies, Inc., GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, Jacobs, James Fisher and Sons plc, Magnox Ltd., Manafort Brothers, Inc., Northstar Group Services Inc., NUVIA , Orano SA, Studsvik AB and Westinghouse Electric Corporation.
In September 2024, GE Hitachi signed four MoUs focusing on UK SMR plans. The UK aims to grow nuclear energy capacity to 24 GW by 2050, with a mix of traditional large-scale power plants and small modular reactors (SMRs).
In April 2024, BWX Technologies, Inc. announced an investment to expand its Cambridge manufacturing plant. Already one of the largest nuclear commercial manufacturing facilities in North America.