市场调查报告书
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1617221
到 2030 年汽车变速箱市场预测:按类型、车型、材料和地区分類的全球分析Automotive Gearbox Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Type, Vehicle Type, Material and By Geography |
根据Stratistics MRC预测,2024年全球汽车变速箱市场规模将达到681亿美元,预计2030年将达到1,046亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为7.4%。
汽车变速箱是车辆的传动系统,它将动力从引擎传输到车轮,使车辆能够以不同的速度和扭力水平行驶。变速箱充当一组齿轮和齿轮机构,允许驾驶员根据不同的驾驶条件选择最佳的传动比。变速箱透过调整传动比,确保引擎高效运行,平衡速度和扭矩,提高车辆性能和燃油经济性,并确保引擎在最佳范围内运行,确保平稳运行。
电动车日益普及
电动车 (EV) 的兴起导致了向专用齿轮系统的转变,使製造商能够引入先进、高效的变速箱解决方案。变速箱技术的创新使製造商能够实现产品多样化,包括齿轮减速系统和变速箱,旨在处理马达的独特特性,例如低速高扭矩。这种市场扩张为变速箱製造商创造了新的机会。
先进变速箱系统高成本
先进的变速箱系统,例如双离合器变速箱和无段变速箱,由于其复杂的工程和製造成本,製造成本昂贵,导致车辆价格增加,使消费者难以承受,并且需求可能会减少。此外,这些系统的高成本可能会限制其在消费价格分布区间的采用。价格分布和中檔车辆可能会继续依赖传统的手动或简单的自动变速箱,从而形成市场鸿沟,只有某些细分市场才能受益于最新的变速箱技术。
传输技术的进步
双离合器变速箱、无段变速箱和先进的自动齿轮系统等车辆技术的进步,透过更平稳的换檔、更好的动力传输和改进的加速性能来提高车辆性能。现代变速箱技术通常与 ADAS(高级驾驶辅助系统)集成,具有主动式车距维持定速系统和自动换檔等功能,创造更好的驾驶体验并推动市场成长。
复杂的製造工艺
复杂的製造流程会延长汽车齿轮系统的前置作业时间,导致供应链效率低落和市场短缺。这些变速箱容易磨损,需要先进的维护和修理程序,导致维护成本较高,并且需要专业维修,这会阻碍消费者购买具有此类变速箱的汽车,从而阻碍市场成长。
COVID-19 的影响
COVID-19 的爆发对汽车变速箱市场产生了重大影响,导致供应链中断、製造延误以及由于经济不确定性而导致的消费者需求减少。封锁和监管导致工厂关闭和劳动力短缺,扰乱了生产和分销。然而,随着经济重新开放以及製造商适应健康通讯协定和数位解决方案,市场开始復苏,促进创新和未来成长的新策略。
预计手排变速箱市场在预测期内将是最大的
预计手排变速箱领域将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率。在驾驶爱好者更喜欢对换檔进行更多控制的地区,手排变速箱受到高度重视,从而支持了所需的细分市场。手排变速箱还具有更高的燃油效率,吸引了寻求最佳燃油效率并持续对手排系统(尤其是燃油经济性技术市场)感兴趣的市场驱动者。
商用和工业车辆领域预计在预测期内复合年增长率最高
由于商用和工业车辆能够处理高负载和恶劣的工作条件,预计在预测期内汽车变速箱市场的复合年增长率最高。这种需求是由对先进和专业变速箱系统的需求所驱动的。此外,包括多速变速箱在内的重型变速箱销售的成长也增强了这些先进系统的市场。
由于双离合器变速箱和无段变速箱等先进变速箱技术的集成,提高了车辆性能和燃油效率,预计北美在预测期内将占据最大的市场占有率。随着电动和混合动力汽车产量的增加,对适应马达独特功率特性的专用齿轮系统的需求增加,推动了该地区的市场成长。
预计亚太地区在估计期内将实现最高成长率。这是因为亚太国家正在实施更严格的排放法规,鼓励汽车製造商采用高效传动技术来减少燃料消费量和二氧化碳排放。在中国、日本和韩国等国家,电动和混合动力汽车的激励和补贴正在推动动力传动系统和变速箱系统相关新技术的采用。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Automotive Gearbox Market is accounted for $68.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $104.6 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 7.4% during the forecast period. An automotive gearbox is a vehicle's drivetrain system that transmits power from the engine to the wheels, enabling the vehicle to move at different speeds and torque levels. It functions as a set of gears and gear mechanisms that allow the driver to select the optimal gear ratio for various driving conditions. By adjusting the gear ratio, the gearbox ensures that the engine operates efficiently, balancing speed and torque to improve vehicle performance, fuel efficiency and ensuring a smooth driving experience by allowing the engine to operate within its optimal range.
Growing popularity of electric vehicles
The rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has led to a shift towards specialized gear systems, allowing manufacturers to introduce advanced, efficient transmission solutions. This innovation in gearbox technology has allowed manufacturers to diversify their offerings, including gear reduction systems and transmissions designed to handle the unique characteristics of electric motors, such as high torque at low speeds. This market expansion has created new opportunities for gearbox manufacturers.
High costs of advanced gearbox systems
Advanced gearbox systems, like dual-clutch transmissions and continuously variable transmissions, are expensive to produce due to their complex engineering and manufacturing costs increasing vehicle prices, making them less affordable for consumers and potentially reducing demand. Additionally, the high cost of these systems may limit their adoption in budget segments, as budget and mid-range vehicles may continue to rely on traditional manual or simple automatic gearboxes, creating a market disparity where only certain segments benefit from the latest gearbox technologies.
Advancements in transmission technologies
Advancements in vehicle technology, such as dual-clutch transmissions, continuously variable transmissions, and advanced automatic gear systems, improve vehicle performance by smoother gear shifts, better power delivery, and enhanced acceleration. Modern transmission technologies often integrate with advanced driver assistance systems, creating an enhanced driving experience with features like adaptive cruise control and automated gear shifting propelling the market growth.
Complex manufacturing processes
Complex manufacturing processes can lead to longer lead times for automotive gear systems, causing supply chain inefficiencies and market shortages. These gearboxes are more prone to wear and require advanced maintenance and repair procedures, potentially deterring consumers from investing in vehicles with such transmissions due to higher maintenance costs and specialized service requirements impeding the market growth.
Covid-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the automotive gearbox market, leading to disruptions in supply chains, manufacturing delays, and reduced consumer demand due to economic uncertainty. Lockdowns and restrictions caused factory closures and labor shortages, slowing production and distribution. However, as economies reopened and manufacturers adapted with health protocols and digital solutions, the market began to recover, fostering innovation and new strategies for future growth.
The manual transmission segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
Over the estimation period, the manual transmission segment is likely to capture the largest market share because manual transmissions are highly valued in regions where driving enthusiasts prefer greater control over gear shifts, supporting a segment of the market where manual gearboxes are a desired feature. They also offer better fuel efficiency, appealing to drivers seeking optimal fuel economy, sustaining interest in manual systems, especially in fuel-saving technologies markets.
The commercial & industrial vehicles segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The commercial & industrial vehicles segment is projected to have the highest CAGR in the automotive gearbox market during the extrapolated period due to their ability to handle heavy loads and demanding driving conditions. This demand is driven by the need for advanced and specialized gearbox systems. Additionally, the growth in heavy-duty transmission sales, including multi-speed transmissions, is enhancing the market for these advanced systems.
North America is projected to hold the largest market share during the forecast period owing to the integration of advanced transmission technologies, such as dual-clutch and continuously variable transmissions, has improved vehicle performance and fuel efficiency in North America. As electric and hybrid vehicle production increases, the demand for specialized gear systems to handle electric motors' unique power characteristics is increasing enhancing the regions market growth.
During the estimation period, the Asia Pacific region is forecasted to record the highest growth rate because Asia Pacific countries are implementing stricter emissions regulations, encouraging automakers to adopt efficient transmission technologies to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Incentives and subsidies for electric vehicles and hybrids in countries like China, Japan, and South Korea encourage the adoption of new technologies related to powertrain and gearbox systems.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Automotive Gearbox market include Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd., Allison Transmission, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc., BorgWarner Inc., Eaton Corporation plc, GKN Automotive Limited, Hyundai Powertech, Jatco Ltd, Magna International Inc., Ricardo, Schaeffler, Voith Group and ZF Friedrichshafen AG.
In November 2024, Schaeffler AG has agreed on structural measures with a regional focus on Germany and Europe aimed at securing a long-term increase in the company's competitiveness. The decision comes in response to the challenging market environment, the increasing intensity of global competition, and ongoing transformation.
In September 2024, Eaton announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Government of Tamil Nadu. This agreement marks a significant step in Eaton's expansion plans for its Crouse-Hinds and B-Line business, reinforcing the company's commitment to driving.