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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1700080
2032 年碳补偿市场预测:按计划类型、信用类型、认证标准、最终用户和地区进行的全球分析Carbon Offsets Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Project Type, Credit Type, Certification Standard, End User and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,全球碳补偿市场预计在 2025 年达到 6,250 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 2,6,340 亿美元,预测期内的复合年增长率为 22.8%。
温室气体排放的显着减少可用于补偿其他地方发生的排放,即所谓的碳补偿。碳补偿是透过排放或阻止温室气体排放的努力来实现的,例如透过捕获甲烷、可再生能源和重新造林。为了平衡碳足迹并促进国际环保倡议,公司和个人购买碳补偿。检验的措施可确保可信度,促进更清洁的能源和环境保护,并减缓气候变迁。
根据AlliedOffsets的数据,截至2025年3月,全球整体共有33,882个活跃的碳补偿计划。
提高对气候变迁的认识
政府、企业和个人越来越多地采用碳中和目标来减少对环境的影响。 《巴黎协定》和企业 ESG 承诺等倡议正在扩大对碳信用额的需求。此外,越来越多的媒体报告和科学报告正在向全球暖化施加压力,迫使工业界减少排放,并鼓励对补偿计划的投资。这种向永续性的集体转变凸显了碳补偿作为平衡不可避免的排放的关键槓桿,从而加速了市场成长。
碳补偿计划高成本
重新造林、可再生能源设施和甲烷捕获等计划需要大量资金、先进技术和长期维护。此外,与第三方检验和认证相关的成本进一步给预算带来压力,尤其是对于中小型企业而言。这些经济壁垒阻碍了成本敏感产业进入市场,并限制了市场扩张潜力。虽然大公司能够承担这些成本,但中小型企业往往举步维艰,造成不公平的竞争环境,并减缓碳补偿倡议的广泛采用。
区块链和人工智慧集成
区块链透过实现碳信用交易的不可变追踪,提高了透明度并降低了诈欺风险。人工智慧正在透过预测分析优化计划选择和影响评估,提高效率。利用这些技术的新兴企业正在吸引投资者的兴趣,企业正在寻求技术主导的解决方案来实现其永续性目标。此外,分散式平台有可能实现碳市场准入民主化,并鼓励小型企业参与。这种创新与永续性的协同效应将重新定义市场动态并推动成长和信任。
缺乏标准化和透明度
碳储存测量方法的多样性和定价机制的不一致导致了市场的分散。此外,对「绿色清洗」和补偿计划合法性的担忧正在损害相关人员的信任。儘管 Verra 和 Gold Standard 等组织致力于解决这些差距,但地区监管差异仍然存在。如果没有统一的指导方针,市场可能会变得效率低、缺乏信任,从而阻碍潜在的参与企业。
由于经济放缓减少了工业排放,并将企业预算重新用于危机管理,COVID-19 疫情暂时扰乱了碳补偿市场。计划延误,特别是林业和可再生能源领域的工程延误,导致信贷发放停滞。但后疫情时代的復苏战略强调了绿色投资,政府和企业已将碳中和纳入奖励策略。远距工作也促进了抵消检验和交易的数位化解决方案。虽然需求最初有所下降,但这场危机增强了气候行动的迫切性,随着经济復苏和对永续性的更加重视,市场必将加速成长。
预计林业和土地利用领域在预测期内将占最大份额
由于林业和土地利用领域已证明具有碳封存能力,并且具有生物多样性保护等共同效益,预计在预测期内将占据最大的市场占有率。造林、重新造林和避免毁林计划符合全球气候变迁目标,并吸引公共和私人投资。此外,REDD+(减少毁林和劣化造成的排放)等倡议正在开发中国家获得支持。这些计划切实的生态和社会影响增加了它们的吸引力并确保了持续的需求。
预计在预测期内,技术和 IT 领域将以最高的复合年增长率成长。
在碳计量、监测和交易平台技术创新的推动下,技术和 IT 领域预计将在预测期内实现最高成长率。数位工具可以实现即时排放追踪和自动信用购买,从而简化企业合规流程。此外,人工智慧主导的平台优化了抵消计划的选择,而区块链则确保了交易的完整性。在创投涌入的推动下,提供碳管理 SaaS 解决方案的新兴企业如雨后春笋般涌现。随着各行各业优先考虑资料主导的永续性策略,该领域预计将因其灵活性和可扩展性而快速成长。
在预测期内,欧洲预计将占据最大的市场占有率,这得益于欧盟排放权交易体系(ETS)和绿色交易等严格的法规结构。高碳价、企业永续性要求以及政府主导的气候变迁措施正在推动对补偿的需求。此外,能源、航空、製造等产业的积极参与也增强了该地区的优势。成员国为实现净零目标而进行的合作努力进一步支持了市场成长,欧洲已成为实施碳补偿的全球领导者。
在预测期内,由于工业化进程加快以及应对气候变迁的力度加大,预计亚太地区将呈现最高的复合年增长率。中国和印度等国家正在投资可再生能源和重新造林计划,以平衡经济成长和排放。此外,越来越多的企业采用 ESG 和国际气候变迁融资计画正在加速市场扩张。该地区庞大的人口,加上都市化和技术主导的创新,为该地区的碳补偿解决方案创造了肥沃的土壤。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Carbon Offsets Market is accounted for $625 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $2634 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 22.8% during the forecast period. Measurable decreases in greenhouse gas emissions that are utilized to make up for emissions generated elsewhere are known as carbon offsets. They are accomplished by initiatives that eliminate or stop emissions, such as methane capture, renewable energy, and reforestation. To balance their carbon footprints and promote international environmental initiatives, businesses and individuals purchase carbon offsets. Credibility is ensured by verified initiatives, which also promote cleaner energy and environmental conservation, mitigating climate change.
According to AlliedOffsets as of March 2025 there were 33,882 carbon offset projects globally.
Rising awareness of climate change
Governments, corporations, and individuals are increasingly adopting carbon neutrality goals to mitigate environmental impacts. Initiatives like the Paris Agreement and corporate ESG commitments have amplified demand for carbon credits. Additionally, heightened media coverage and scientific reports on global warming have pressured industries to reduce emissions, fostering investments in offset projects. This collective shift toward sustainability underscores carbon offsets as a critical tool for balancing unavoidable emissions, thereby accelerating market growth.
High cost of carbon offset projects
Projects such as reforestation, renewable energy installations, or methane capture require substantial capital, advanced technologies, and long-term maintenance. Moreover, costs associated with third-party verification and certification further strain budgets, particularly for smaller enterprises. These financial barriers deter participation from cost-sensitive industries, limiting market scalability. While large corporations can absorb these expenses, SMEs often struggle; creating an uneven competitive landscape and slowing broader adoption of carbon offset initiatives.
Integration with blockchain & AI
Blockchain enhances transparency by enabling immutable tracking of carbon credit transactions, reducing fraud risks. AI optimizes project selection and impact assessment through predictive analytics, improving efficiency. Startups leveraging these technologies are attracting investor interest, while corporations seek tech-driven solutions to meet sustainability targets. Additionally, decentralized platforms could democratize access to carbon markets, fostering participation from smaller entities. This synergy of innovation and sustainability is poised to redefine market dynamics, driving growth and credibility.
Lack of standardization & transparency
Varying methodologies for measuring carbon sequestration and inconsistent pricing mechanisms create market fragmentation. Moreover, concerns over "greenwashing" and the legitimacy of offset projects erode stakeholder trust. While organizations like Verra and Gold Standard aim to address these gaps, regulatory disparities across regions persist. Without harmonized guidelines, the market risks inefficiencies and reduced credibility deterring potential participants.
The Covid-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted the carbon offsets market as economic slowdowns reduced industrial emissions and diverted corporate budgets toward crisis management. Project delays, particularly in forestry and renewable energy, stalled credit issuance. However, post-covid recovery strategies emphasized green investments, with governments and businesses integrating carbon neutrality into stimulus plans. Remote work also spurred digital solutions for offset verification and trading. While initial demand dipped, the crisis reinforced the urgency of climate action, positioning the market for accelerated growth as economies rebounded with a stronger sustainability focus.
The forestry & land use segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The forestry & land use segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period due to its proven carbon sequestration capabilities and co-benefits like biodiversity conservation. Afforestation, reforestation, and avoided deforestation projects align with global climate goals, attracting public and private investments. Additionally, initiatives such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) have gained traction in developing nations. The tangible ecological and social impacts of these projects enhance their appeal, ensuring sustained demand.
The technology & IT segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the technology & IT segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate driven by innovations in carbon accounting, monitoring, and trading platforms. Digital tools enable real-time emission tracking and automated credit purchasing, streamlining corporate compliance. Moreover, AI-driven platforms optimize offset project selection, while blockchain ensures transactional integrity. Startups offering SaaS solutions for carbon management are proliferating, supported by venture capital inflows. As industries prioritize data-driven sustainability strategies, this segment's agility and scalability position it for rapid growth.
During the forecast period, the Europe region is expected to hold the largest market share fueled by stringent regulatory frameworks like the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the Green Deal. High carbon pricing, corporate sustainability mandates, and government-led climate initiatives drive demand for offsets. Additionally, robust participation from industries such as energy, aviation, and manufacturing reinforces regional dominance. Collaborative efforts among member states to achieve net-zero targets further bolster market growth, positioning Europe as a global leader in carbon offset adoption.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR driven by rapid industrialization and increasing climate commitments. Countries like China and India are investing in renewable energy and afforestation projects to balance economic growth with emission reductions. Moreover, rising corporate ESG adoption and international climate financing programs accelerate market expansion. The region's large population, coupled with urbanization and tech-driven innovations, creates a fertile ground for carbon offset solutions in the region.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Carbon Offsets Market include South Pole Group, 3Degrees Group, Inc., EcoAct, Verra, Gold Standard, Climate Impact Partners, NativeEnergy, Carbon Credit Capital, TerraPass, Cool Effect, ClimateCare, Natural Capital Partners, Pachama, Carbonfund.org Foundation and Shell.
In March 2025, South Pole is proud to support a major milestone in Ghana's transition to sustainable transport with the signing of an Article 6 Mitigation Action Purchase Agreement (MOPA) between the Swedish Energy Agency (SEA) & Solar Taxi Ltd, a leading electric vehicle company in Ghana. This marks South Pole's second major ITMO deal in the transport sector and its first with the Swedish Energy Agency, advancing international carbon finance under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, which enables countries to collaborate on emission reduction targets.
In August 2024, 3Degrees, a leading global climate solutions provider and certified B Corporation, announced the launch of its Supply Chain Emission Reduction Agreement product. This innovative approach empowers suppliers to deliver products with reduced emissions intensity, helping organizations hit their scope 3 goals. This solution is initially available for organizations in the food and apparel industry with North American agricultural supply chains.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.