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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1803027
全球农林业碳补偿市场预测(至 2032 年):按类型、碳补偿类型、计划规模、认证标准、技术、最终用户和地区进行分析Agroforestry Carbon Offset Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Type, Carbon Offset Type, Project Size & Scale, Certification Standard, Technology, End User and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,全球农林业碳补偿市场预计在 2025 年达到 3.5703 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 7.6017 亿美元,预测期内的复合年增长率为 11.4%。
农林复合系统碳补偿是指透过将树木与作物和牲畜结合的综合土地利用实践,实现温室气体排放的可量化减排。这些系统增强了生物质和土壤的碳封存,同时促进了生物多样性和永续农业。农林复合系统计划产生的经认证的碳补偿可在碳市场上交易,带来环境和经济效益。这种方法透过捕获大气中的二氧化碳来支持气候变迁减缓,并透过提高土地生产力和生态系统復原力促进农村发展。
根据《水、空气与土壤污染》杂誌发表的报导,全球约有 12 亿人在约 10 亿公顷土地上实施农林业系统,其中印度约有 2,532 万公顷土地实行农林业。
对可靠、检验的碳信用额的需求不断增长
农林复合计划不仅吸收碳排放,还能带来土壤修復、生物多样性保护和当地社区永续生计等协同效益,因此对寻求ESG合规性的投资者和企业极具吸引力。随着自愿和合规碳市场日趋成熟,相关人员更加重视那些以透明方法论、第三方检验和可衡量生态学成果为支撑的碳信用。这种对可靠且持续的碳信用额度日益增长的偏好,预计将成为农林复合碳补偿市场扩张的关键驱动力。
缺乏统一、科学健全的MRV系统
目前农林业计划的MRV方法因地区而异,难以确保碳储存效益和社会影响的一致性。资源和成本限制阻碍了许多小农户主导的计划采用卫星监测和基于人工智慧的碳模型等先进技术。这种差异性不仅阻碍了大型机构投资者的积极性,还造成了定价不确定性,因为不同地区对碳抵消品质的认知存在差异,可能导致市场碎片化和投资者信心下降。
聚合平台和数位合作社的成长
由区块链技术、基于物联网的监控和行动优先解决方案支援的聚合模型有助于标准化资料收集、提高透明度并简化信用验证。数位合作社为农民提供了更便利的市场准入,实现了集体谈判,并降低了计划检验和认证的交易成本。此外,创新的金融科技整合正开始将碳信用与去中心化金融机会联繫起来,从而提高了流动性并扩大了投资者的参与度。这些可扩展的数位生态系统不仅解决了计划碎片化的挑战,还使农村社区能够更广泛地融入碳经济。
土地权属不明确、政治不稳定、政策不一致
政治不稳定和政策转变进一步加剧了不确定性,因为政权更迭可能导致碳税制度、抵销额确认框架和奖励机制的变化。此类风险会阻碍投资者做出长期资本承诺,并扰乱当地计划的连续性。此外,各国在监管自愿和合规市场方面的政策不一致,也加剧了全球交易平台上信用额度合格的不确定性。除非引入监管透明度和管治改革,否则这些因素将对市场的稳定扩张构成重大威胁。
新冠疫情对农林业碳补偿市场产生了双重影响。最初,全球封锁导致计划实施中断,减少了实地监测的机会,推迟了检验时间,并暂时停止了碳排放额度的产生。同时,随着各国政府和企业重新评估其在復苏战略中的环境承诺,疫情也提高了全球对气候适应力和永续发展的认识。许多企业买家更加关注自愿碳市场,将其作为更广泛的永续性框架的一部分,这为农林业主导创造了机会。
预计预测期内林牧业将占最大份额
预计在预测期内,林牧复合系统将占据最大的市场占有率,因为该模式不仅能增强碳封存能力,还能改善土壤肥力、控制水土流失,并为农民提供多样化的收入来源。透过优化土地利用效率和提高牲畜生产力,林牧复合系统因其在应对气候变迁和社会经济效益方面的双重优势而日益受到认可。林牧复合系统在不同地区的可扩展性使其成为计划开发商和投资者的首选。
预计预测期内自愿性碳补偿部分将以最高复合年增长率成长
预计自愿碳补偿领域将在预测期内实现最高成长率,这得益于私营部门对碳中和承诺以及消费者主导的环境课责的激增。企业越来越多地透过自愿补偿来补充其内部排放,以实现雄心勃勃的净零目标。随着全球企业ESG揭露框架的加强,自愿性碳补偿领域已成为技术创新的温床,提供由数位可追溯工具支持的、价格高昂的基于自然的信用额度。
由于强有力的政策支持、先进的碳排放交易机制以及永续农业实践的广泛采用,预计北美将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率。美国和加拿大拥有健全的框架来鼓励基于自然的碳补偿计划,企业也积极投资于土地修復和造林工作。此外,成熟的MRV技术和资金筹措生态系统使北美在产生可靠的碳补偿方面处于领先地位。
由于农林复合系统的应用日益普及以及气候融资流入的不断增加,预计亚太地区在预测期内的复合年增长率最高。印度、印尼和越南等国家正在实施大规模的重新造林和农林复合项目,以履行其国家气候变迁承诺。国际碳补偿买家对亚太地区经济高效、规模庞大的碳汇潜力的兴趣日益浓厚,这加速了计划开发,并推动该地区在整个预测期内保持两位数的成长轨迹。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Agroforestry Carbon Offset Market is accounted for $357.03 million in 2025 and is expected to reach $760.17 million by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 11.4% during the forecast period. Agroforestry carbon offset are the quantifiable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions achieved through integrated land-use practices that combine trees with crops or livestock. These systems enhance carbon sequestration in biomass and soil while promoting biodiversity and sustainable agriculture. Verified offsets generated from agroforestry projects can be traded in carbon markets, offering environmental and economic benefits. This approach supports climate mitigation by capturing atmospheric CO2 and contributes to rural development through improved land productivity and ecosystem resilience.
According to article published in Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, agroforestry systems are practiced globally by more than 1.2 billion people across approximately 1 billion hectares of land, with India contributing around 25.32 million hectares under agroforestry.
Growing demand for credible and verifiable carbon credits
Agroforestry projects not only sequester carbon but also deliver co-benefits such as soil restoration, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable livelihoods for local communities, making them more attractive to investors and corporations seeking robust ESG compliance. As voluntary and compliance carbon markets mature, stakeholders are placing greater emphasis on credits backed by transparent methodologies, third-party verifications, and measurable ecological outcomes. This growing preference for credible, high-integrity carbon credits is expected to be a key driver for the expansion of agroforestry carbon offset markets.
Lack of a uniform and scientifically robust MRV system
Current MRV approaches in agroforestry projects vary widely across geographies, making it difficult to ensure consistency in measuring carbon sequestration benefits and social impacts. Many smallholder-driven projects face difficulties in deploying advanced technologies like satellite monitoring or AI-based carbon modeling due to resource and cost barriers. This heterogeneity not only discourages large-scale institutional investors but also creates uncertainty in pricing, as the perceived quality of offsets differs across regions risks fragmentation and limited investor confidence.
Scaling up aggregation platforms and digital cooperatives
Aggregation models supported by blockchain technologies, IoT-based monitoring, and mobile-first solutions can help standardize data collection, enhance transparency, and simplify credit verification. Digital cooperatives give farmers easier access to marketplaces, enabling collective bargaining and reducing transaction costs for project validation and certification. Moreover, innovative fintech integrations are beginning to link carbon credits with decentralized finance opportunities, enhancing liquidity and broadening investor participation. These scalable digital ecosystems not only address challenges of project fragmentation but also unlock broader inclusion of rural communities into the carbon economy.
Lack of clear land tenure rights, political instability, and inconsistent policy
Political instability and policy shifts further increase uncertainty, as changing regimes may alter carbon taxation, offset recognition frameworks, or incentive mechanisms. These risks discourage long-term financial commitments from investors and disrupt project continuity on the ground. Furthermore, inconsistent national policies in regulating voluntary vs. compliance markets contribute to uncertainty on credit eligibility in global trading platforms. Unless regulatory clarity and governance reforms are introduced, these factors represent a significant threat to the market's stable expansion.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a dual impact on the agroforestry carbon offset market. Initially, global lockdowns led to interruptions in project implementation, reduced access to field monitoring, and slowed verification timelines, temporarily disrupting credit generation. On the other hand, the pandemic brought a surge in global awareness of climate resilience and sustainable development as governments and corporations revisited their environmental commitments in recovery strategies. Many corporate buyers increased their focus on voluntary carbon markets as part of broader sustainability frameworks, creating opportunities for agroforestry-led offsets.
The silvopasture segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The silvopasture segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period as this model enhances carbon sequestration capacity while also improving soil fertility, controlling erosion, and providing diversified income streams for farmers. By optimizing land use efficiency and improving livestock productivity, silvopasture systems are increasingly recognized for their dual capacity to generate climate and socioeconomic benefits. Its scalability across different geographies makes it a preferred choice among project developers and investors.
The voluntary carbon offsets segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the voluntary carbon offsets segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate driven by a surge in private sector commitments to carbon neutrality and consumer-driven environmental accountability. Corporations are increasingly supplementing internal emissions reductions with voluntary offsets to achieve ambitious net-zero targets. With corporate ESG disclosure frameworks tightening worldwide, the voluntary segment have become a hotbed for innovation, offering premium-priced, nature-based credits supported by digital traceability tools.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share due to strong policy support, advanced carbon trading mechanisms, and widespread adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. The United States and Canada have robust frameworks encouraging nature-based offset projects, with companies actively investing in land restoration and afforestation initiatives. Moreover established MRV technologies and access to financing ecosystems makes North America leader in generating reliable offsets.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR rising adoption of agroforestry systems, and heightened climate financing inflows. Countries such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are implementing large-scale reforestation and agroforestry programs aligned with their national climate commitments. Growing interest from international offset buyers in Asia Pacific's cost-effective, large-scale sequestration potential is accelerating project development will fuel the region's double-digit growth trajectory throughout the forecast period.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Agroforestry Carbon Offset Market include Agroforestry Systems Inc., Weyerhaeuser, Green Resources, Rainforest Alliance, EcoPlanet Bamboo, TerraCarbon LLC, ArborGen LLC, BioCarbon Partners, Ecotrust Forest Management, Forest Carbon Works, Wildlife Works Carbon, South Pole Group, Pachama, Carbon Tanzania, Sylvera, Everland, and Finite Carbon.
In April 2025, EFM announced a new fund launched in partnership with Sojitz to scale climate-smart forestry and carbon solutions in the U.S. (announced as a $200M initiative). It frames the fund as a vehicle to expand climate-smart forest investments, drive conservation outcomes and scale carbon projects.
In April 2025, TerraCarbon announced a scientific collaboration with The Nature Conservancy to improve trust and transparency in REDD+ and carbon markets. The announcement describes a joint research/collaboration program to validate methods, increase transparency and build scientific confidence in REDD+ project approaches.
In March 2025, BioCarbon Partners announced the official launch of the Kafue-Zambezi Community Forest Project (Zambia), described as a major community forest carbon initiative. The release summarized community benefits, conservation aims, and the project's role in channeling carbon revenue to local communities.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.