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市场调查报告书
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1865457
电动巴士和公共交通市场预测至2032年:按动力方式、车辆配置、充电类型、应用和区域分類的全球分析Electric Bus & Public Transit Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Propulsion Type, Vehicle Configuration, Charging Type, Application and By Geography |
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根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,预计到 2025 年,全球电动巴士和公共交通市场规模将达到 238 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 595.5 亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为 14.0%。
电动公车正以其更干净、更安静的出行方式改变公共运输。城市交通部门正以电池驱动和氢燃料电池电动公车取代柴油车辆,以污染防治并减少碳排放。这些公车营运成本更低,机械维护更少,是长期车队规划中经济高效的选择。充电站、快速充电系统和智慧电网整合技术的进步,有助于维持可靠的线路运作。世界各国政府正透过政策、补贴和基础设施投资来支持电动公车的普及。随着储能技术和车辆技术的不断进步,电动公车有望成为全球永续城市交通的核心组成部分。
据印度重工业部称,截至 2023 年,FAME-II 计划已批准 7,000 多辆电动公车,其中 3,000 多辆已在主要城市投入使用,这反映出中央政府对公共交通电气化的大力支持。
更严格的环境法规与排放目标
更严格的污染法规和气候变迁措施正在加速公共交通网络向电动公车的转型。柴油公车是都市区空气污染的主要来源,因此政府部门正在推出更严格的排放法规和清洁出行框架。电动公车零排放且城市噪音极低,使其成为交通负责人重要的环境改善工具。许多国家正在製定绿色交通政策,扩大低排放区,并设定逐步淘汰石化燃料公车的最后期限。这些措施迫使营运商用环保车款替换老旧车辆。随着许多城市致力于减少碳排放,电动公车正成为永续公共交通策略的优先组成部分。
高昂的初始投资和采购成本
电动公车普及面临的主要挑战之一是高昂的初始投资。与柴油车相比,电动公车需要昂贵的电池、电控系统和专用推进技术,这显着增加了其购买成本。营运商还必须拨出资金用于充电站、快速充电器和电气设备升级,以支援日常营运。许多地方交通机构缺乏进行这些投资的资金,从而延缓了其转型计划。虽然从长远来看,电动公车可以降低燃料和维护成本,但初始成本差距仍然难以克服。因此,高昂的购置和基础设施成本继续阻碍电动公车市场的大规模扩张。
电池和充电系统的技术进步
电池技术和充电方式的持续改进正在释放电动公共交通的巨大成长潜力。高密度电池解决方案可实现更长的续航里程、更快的充电速度和更高的耐用性,使公车能够运行更长的线路,减少停驶次数。固态电池、感应式充电平台和直流快速充电站等技术的进步正在提高营运效率。增强的冷却和能源管理系统确保了公车即使在恶劣环境下也能可靠运作。随着生产规模的扩大和单位成本的下降,电动出行正成为公共运输机构更经济实惠的选择。这些技术创新提高了可靠性,减少了运作,并加速了寻求更清洁、更智慧交通系统的城市采用电动公车的进程。
供应链不稳定和电池材料短缺
全球原料供应链的不稳定性对电动公车的广泛应用构成重大威胁,特别是因为电池依赖锂、钴、镍和稀土元素矿物等稀缺金属。采矿限制和精炼能力不足导致价格波动和运输延误。地缘政治问题、出口限制和贸易争端使得製造商的采购计画难以预测。电动车製造商和电网储能公司需求的成长进一步加剧了原材料供应的压力。短缺会增加生产成本并延误车辆交付。除非扩大回收系统并开发新的矿产资源,否则长期的原材料短缺可能会减缓电动公车的普及,并阻碍其在公共交通网络中的普及。
新冠疫情对电动巴士和公共运输市场产生了显着影响,主要体现在生产停滞、采购週期延迟以及封锁期间客流量下降等。交通管理部门面临的财政压力导致电气化计划延期,投资能力受限。零件短缺,尤其是电池和电子元件的短缺,进一步阻碍了生产进度。然而,这场危机也促使人们对永续交通途径的关注度提升,许多政府推出了绿色復苏预算和新的零排放政策。额外的补贴、充电基础设施计划和环保措施有助于恢復人们对电动公共交通的信心。儘管短期影响抑制了成长,但长期推广策略依然稳健,全球的进展仍在持续。
预计在预测期内,电池电动巴士(BEB)细分市场将占据最大的市场份额。
由于易于整合、零排放以及与不断扩展的充电网路相容,电池电动巴士(BEB)预计将在预测期内占据最大的市场份额。交通管理部门选择BEB的原因在于其燃料成本更低、乘坐舒适,并且在频繁停靠的城市线路上性能可靠。电池技术的快速发展提高了续航里程、缩短了充电时间并增强了车队的可靠性。支援法规、清洁旅游计画以及对充电基础设施不断增加的投资正在加速BEB的普及。随着城市负责人寻求可靠的零排放交通方式,BEB已成为日常营运的首选,也是公共运输领域最广泛接受的车款。
预计在预测期内,铰接式公车(车长超过12公尺的铰接式公车)细分市场将以最高的复合年增长率成长。
铰接式公车(长度超过12米,铰接式设计)预计将在预测期内呈现最高的成长率,这主要得益于其能够搭载更多乘客以及在拥挤路段增加发车频率。铰接式公车适用于多种应用场景,包括客流量大的线路、都市区交通干线以及需要持续客流的机场接送服务。其独特的设计使公车公司能够以更少的车辆应对尖峰时段的交通流量,从而减少道路拥塞并降低营运成本。电池技术和充电基础设施的进步使得铰接式公车能够以最小的停机时间延长营运时间。随着许多城市投资建设现代化、高容量的公共交通网络,铰接式电动公车正迅速被市场接受,加速其车队的电气化进程。
由于快速的城市化进程、完善的公共交通系统以及对排放排放交通的强力政策支持,亚太地区预计将在整个预测期内占据最大的市场份额。中国和印度等国家正积极推动从柴油公车向电动公车的转型,以减少污染併升级其交通基础设施。主要公车製造商的存在、慷慨的补贴计划以及先进充电站的推广,进一步巩固了该地区的地位。随着众多特大城市不断扩张并实现交通网络的现代化,亚太地区在电动公车的普及应用方面处于领先地位,并在主导全球市场走向方面发挥关键作用。
在预测期内,由于强有力的环境政策、清洁交通策略以及对零排放车辆投资的不断增加,欧洲预计将成为复合年增长率最高的地区。许多欧洲国家已设定了逐步淘汰柴油公车的明确期限,这迅速推动了对电动车型的需求。都市区正在推行低排放区,扩建车库和行动充电设施,并为营运商提供财务奖励。本地製造商正在为密集的交通网络开发优化的电池效率和快速充电解决方案。随着大众偏好转向零排放出行和更严格的气候法规,欧洲仍然是电动公车普及和城市车辆转型成长最快的地区。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Electric Bus & Public Transit Market is accounted for $23.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $59.55 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 14.0% during the forecast period. Electric buses are reshaping public transportation by delivering cleaner and quieter mobility solutions. Urban transit agencies are replacing diesel fleets with battery-powered and hydrogen-fuel electric buses to fight pollution and lower carbon footprints. Since these buses offer reduced operating expenses and require less mechanical upkeep, they are becoming a cost-effective choice for long-term fleet planning. Advancements in charging stations, rapid charging systems, and smart grid integration help maintain consistent route coverage. Global governments are supporting deployment through policies, grants, and infrastructure investments. With ongoing improvements in energy storage and vehicle technology, electric buses are poised to become a core element of sustainable city transportation worldwide.
According to India's Ministry of Heavy Industries, over 7,000 electric buses have been sanctioned under the FAME-II scheme as of 2023, with more than 3,000 already deployed across major cities. This reflects strong central support for electrifying public transport.
Rising environmental regulations and emission reduction targets
Stricter pollution laws and climate commitments are accelerating the shift toward electric buses in public transport networks. Diesel buses contribute heavily to urban air contaminants, causing authorities to adopt tougher emission regulations and clean-mobility frameworks. Since electric buses operate with zero exhaust and minimal urban noise, transit planners view them as an essential tool for environmental improvement. Numerous nations are rolling out green-transport policies, expanding low-pollution zones, and setting deadlines to phase out fossil-fuel buses. These initiatives are pressuring operators to replace older fleets with eco-friendly models. With many cities aiming for reduced carbon footprints, electric buses are becoming a priority component in sustainable public transit strategies.
High initial investment and procurement costs
The primary challenge restricting the growth of electric buses is the substantial upfront financial requirement. Compared to diesel vehicles, electric buses demand costly batteries, electronic control units, and specialized propulsion technology, raising purchase prices considerably. Fleet operators must also allocate funds for charging depots, rapid chargers, and electrical upgrades to support daily operations. Many regional transport agencies lack the capital to make these investments, delaying their transition plans. Even though electric buses reduce fuel and maintenance expenses over time, the initial cost gap remains difficult to overcome. As a result, high purchase and infrastructure expenses continue to slow down large-scale market expansion.
Technological advancements in batteries and charging systems
Continuous improvements in battery technology and charging methods are unlocking major growth prospects for electric public transit. Higher-density battery solutions deliver extended range, quicker charging, and improved durability, allowing buses to run longer routes with fewer interruptions. Advancements such as solid-state cells, inductive charging platforms, and rapid DC charging stations are increasing operational efficiency. Enhanced cooling and energy-management systems make buses reliable even under harsh environmental conditions. As manufacturing scales and unit prices decrease, electric mobility becomes more affordable for transit agencies. These technology upgrades boost reliability, reduce downtime, and encourage faster adoption of electric buses across cities aiming for cleaner and smarter transportation systems.
Supply chain instability and battery material shortages
Instability in global material supply chains is a major threat for electric bus growth, particularly because batteries rely on scarce metals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth minerals. Limited mining output and refining capacity create price volatility and shipment delays. Geopolitical issues, export limits, and trade disputes make procurement unpredictable for manufacturers. Rising demand from EV automakers and grid-storage companies puts additional pressure on material availability. When shortages occur, production costs increase and fleet delivery schedules are pushed back. Unless recycling systems expand and new mining sources are developed, long-term material constraints may slow deployment and reduce affordability of electric buses in public transport networks.
The Covid-19 outbreak had a notable influence on the Electric Bus & Public Transit Market, mainly through halted production activities, slowed procurement cycles, and reduced ridership during lockdown phases. Financial pressure on transit authorities caused delays in electrification projects and limited investment capacity. Component shortages, especially for batteries and electronic parts, further obstructed manufacturing schedules. Yet, the crisis also boosted interest in sustainable transportation as many governments introduced green recovery budgets and new zero-emission policies. Additional subsidies, charging infrastructure projects, and environmental initiatives helped revive confidence in electric public transit. Although the short-term impact weakened growth, long-term adoption strategies remained resilient and continued progressing worldwide.
The battery electric bus (BEB) segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The battery electric bus (BEB) segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period because they are easier to integrate, produce no exhaust emissions, and fit well within growing charging networks. Transport authorities choose BEBs for reduced fuel expenses, smoother rides, and dependable performance on urban routes with frequent halts. Faster progress in battery innovation has led to improved range, quicker charging, and stronger fleet reliability. Supportive regulations, clean mobility programs, and rising investment in charging infrastructure help accelerate adoption. As urban planners look for reliable zero-emission mobility, BEBs have become the preferred option for daily service, making them the most widely accepted segment in public transportation.
The articulated bus (>12 meters, jointed) segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the articulated bus (>12 meters, jointed) segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate due to their ability to carry larger passenger loads and improve service frequency on busy routes. They are widely suited for high-demand corridors, metro-feeder systems, and airport transportation where continuous passenger movement is required. Their design allows transit agencies to handle peak-hour traffic with fewer vehicles, decreasing road congestion and operating expenses. Advancements in battery technology and charging infrastructure enable longer service hours with minimal downtime. With many cities investing in modern, high-capacity public transport networks, articulated electric buses are gaining rapid preference and accelerating fleet electrification.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share due to its rapid urban growth, extensive public transit systems, and robust policy support for emissions-free transportation. Nations like China and India are aggressively transitioning from diesel buses to electric fleets to curb pollution and upgrade mobility infrastructure. Dominant bus manufacturers, generous subsidies, and advanced charging station deployment further reinforce the region's prominence. As numerous large cities expand and modernise their transit operations, the Asia-Pacific region remains the foremost arena for electric bus adoption and plays a key role in driving global market direction.
Over the forecast period, the Europe region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR because of its strong environmental policies, clean transport strategies, and rising investment in zero-emission vehicles. Many European nations have set firm deadlines to retire diesel buses, driving rapid demand for electric models. Cities are introducing low-emission districts, expanding depot and on-route charging, and offering financial incentives for operators. Local manufacturers are advancing battery efficiency and fast-charging solutions tailored for dense transit networks. With public preference shifting toward pollution-free mobility and climate regulations becoming stricter, Europe remains the fastest-growing region for electric bus deployment and urban fleet transformation.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Electric Bus & Public Transit Market include Proterra, King Long Bus, Irizar e-mobility, Alexander Dennis, Yutong, DFAC, BYD, Zhong Tong, Foton, ANKAI, Guangtong, Nanjing Gold Dragon, Volvo, New Flyer and Daimler.
In October 2025, BYD and HONOR launch deep collaboration to integrate smartphone connectivity and vehicle intelligence, setting the stage for a new smart-mobility ecosystem. In a move that could reshape connected mobility, smartphone manufacturer HONOR and new-energy vehicle maker BYD have signed a strategic partnership to deliver AI-enabled intelligent vehicle experiences.
In August 2025, Daimler Truck AG, Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation, Hino Motors Ltd., and Toyota Motor Corporation have signed definitive agreements to integrate Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino. The agreement marks a major step in creating a unified force to accelerate innovation, decarbonisation, and competitiveness in the commercial vehicle sector.
In June 2025, Volvo Cars has signed an agreement with Swedish steelmaker SSAB to begin using recycled, near zero-emission steel in its manufacturing operations from 2025, reinforcing its goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2040 and increase circularity across its supply chain.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.