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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1876662
自愿性碳市场预测至2032年:按类型、计划类型、排碳权类型、买方类型、最终用户、行业垂直领域和地区分類的全球分析Voluntary Carbon Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Type, Project Type, Carbon Credit Type, Buyer Type, End User, Industry Vertical, and By Geography |
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根据 Stratistics MRC 的一项研究,预计到 2025 年,全球自愿性碳市场价值将达到 21 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 99 亿美元。
预计在预测期内,碳市场将以24.7%的复合年增长率成长。自愿性碳市场促进私人企业购买排碳权,以抵销排放监管义务的排放。计划遵循额外性、永久性和检验标准,并透过植树造林、可再生能源、甲烷捕获和基于自然的解决方案来产生碳信用。企业利用这些信用额来实现其净零排放目标,但市场的健康发展取决于严格的计量、健全的註册制度和透明的定价。
企业为实现净零排放目标所做的努力以及ESG活动的扩展
推动市场成长的关键因素之一是企业为实现净零排放所做的大量承诺。面对投资者、消费者和监管机构日益增长的压力,企业正利用排碳权来抵消不可避免的排放,并展示其在脱碳进程中取得的实际进展。这种企业需求不再是小众活动,而是已成为全面ESG策略的核心要素,直接促进了自愿性碳市场的持续资金流入。此外,这些努力也预示着长期需求,推动计划开发和市场成熟。
市场分散且缺乏通用品质标准
市场效率和公信力面临的主要障碍是其分散和缺乏普遍接受的品质标准。不同註册机构、调查方法和检验流程的激增造成了混乱,并增加了买家的交易成本。这种缺乏标准化的现状使得碳信用额度难以比较,引发了人们对某些碳抵消真实性的担忧,并可能阻碍投资和参与。因此,这种碎片化削弱了市场信任,并阻碍了有效且具影响力的气候行动的规模化发展。
对高品质信贷的需求不断增长
买家变得越来越挑剔,他们寻求的是具有附加价值的认证,例如生物多样性保护和社区发展,从而为溢价买单。这一趋势促使开发商采用更严格的标准,并在监控和检验技术方面进行创新。此外,这种从追求数量转向追求品质的趋势有望将资金引导至最具影响力和社会责任感的计划,最终增强整个市场生态系统。
计划失败和品质问题带来的声誉风险
对市场稳定的一个重大风险是,未能实现承诺的减排排放或产生负面社会影响的计划可能计划声誉损害。媒体对有缺陷的调查方法的深入调查会迅速削弱公众和企业的信任。由于担心被指控“漂绿”,企业可能会因这类争议而退出碳市场。这项威胁凸显了在计划整个生命週期中提高透明度和进行严格实质审查的紧迫性,以维护市场的社会运作接受度。
疫情初期扰乱了自愿碳市场,计划延期和经济不确定性暂时抑制了需求。然而,这场危机最终促使人们重新认识到气候行动的迫切性。随着「重建得更好」议程所推动的经济復苏,企业气候承诺也随之大幅反弹。疫情过后,许多公司加强了净零排放目标,推动了对排碳权的投资,将其作为永续性组合的核心部分,从而加速了市场成长,使其远超疫情前水准。
预计在预测期内,林业和土地利用计划领域将占据最大的市场份额。
预计在预测期内,林业和土地利用计划领域将占据最大的市场份额。诸如REDD+之类的计划具有巨大的碳封存潜力,其规模是目前许多技术方案无法实现的。此外,这些计划还能带来重要的额外效益,例如野生动物保护、水资源管理和支持当地社区,与企业的环境、社会和管治(ESG)目标高度契合。这种兼具高影响力气候行动和积极社会及生态效益的强大组合,使其成为众多企业买家的首选。
预计在预测期内,黄金标准(GS)信贷部门将呈现最高的复合年增长率。
由于其严格的标准和对永续发展的关注,黄金标准(GS)碳信用额度预计将在预测期内呈现最高的成长率。在品质日益受到关注的市场中,GS认证是碳信用额度可信度的可靠指标。买家积极寻求这些碳信用额度,因为该认证不仅保证了实际的排放排量,还保证了对联合国永续目标(SDGs)的可衡量贡献。这种卓越的声誉使GS碳信用额度能够获得更高的价格,从而在市场需求明显转向高品质产品的背景下,并持续扩大市场份额。
预计北美将在整个预测期内占据最大的市场份额。美国和加拿大完善的金融生态系统促进了碳市场交易,而主要企业净零排放承诺的激增则持续推高了市场需求。此外,先发优势以及计划开发商、仲介和咨询服务机构的成熟环境巩固了该地区的优势,使其成为自愿碳市场活动和创新的中心。
在预测期内,亚太地区预计将实现最高的复合年增长率,这主要得益于碳计划开发的巨大潜力以及企业参与度的不断提高。该地区为基于自然和可再生能源计划提供了广泛的机会,吸引了大量投资。此外,人们对气候风险的认识不断提高,以及在该地区拥有供应链的跨国公司面临的压力日益增大,都推动了当地对碳抵销的需求。丰富的供应潜力与不断增长的需求相结合,正在形成强劲的成长动力,使其表现优于成熟市场。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Voluntary Carbon Market is accounted for $2.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $9.9 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 24.7% during the forecast period. The voluntary carbon market facilitates private purchases of carbon credits to offset emissions beyond regulatory obligations. Projects generate credits through reforestation, renewable energy, methane capture, and nature-based solutions, following standards for additionality, permanence, and verification. Corporates use credits to meet net-zero ambitions, but market integrity hinges on rigorous measurement, robust registries, and transparent pricing.
Growing corporate net-zero commitments and ESG initiatives
The primary engine for market growth is the surge in corporate pledges to achieve net-zero emissions. Under increasing pressure from investors, consumers, and regulators, companies are utilizing carbon credits to offset their unavoidable emissions and demonstrate tangible progress on their decarbonization journeys. This corporate demand is no longer a niche activity but a core component of comprehensive ESG strategies, directly translating into sustained financial flows in the voluntary carbon market. Furthermore, these commitments provide a long-term demand signal that encourages project development and market maturation.
Market fragmentation and lack of universal quality standards
A significant barrier to the market's efficiency and credibility is its fragmentation and the absence of universally accepted quality benchmarks. The proliferation of different registries, methodologies, and verification processes creates confusion and increases transaction costs for buyers. This lack of standardization makes it difficult to compare credits and raises concerns about the integrity of some carbon offsets, potentially deterring investment and participation. Consequently, this fragmentation undermines market confidence and hampers the scaling of robust, high-impact climate action.
Growing demand for high-quality credits
Buyers are increasingly discerning, seeking credits with co-benefits like biodiversity protection and community development, which justify a premium price. This trend incentivizes developers to adopt rigorous standards and innovate in monitoring and verification technologies. Moreover, this shift towards quality over quantity is poised to channel finance towards the most impactful and socially responsible projects, ultimately strengthening the entire market ecosystem.
Reputational risks from project failures or quality controversies
A critical threat to market stability is the potential for reputational damage stemming from projects that fail to deliver their promised emissions reductions or are linked to negative social impacts. High-profile media investigations into flawed methodologies can erode public and corporate trust rapidly. Companies may withdraw from the carbon market due to these controversies, fearing accusations of greenwashing. This threat underscores the urgent need for enhanced transparency and robust due diligence across the project lifecycle to safeguard the market's social license to operate.
The pandemic initially disrupted the voluntary carbon market, causing project delays and economic uncertainty that temporarily softened demand. However, the crisis ultimately acted as a catalyst, reinforcing the urgency of climate action. The subsequent economic recovery, often framed around "building back better," saw a sharp rebound in corporate climate commitments. Many companies emerged from the pandemic with strengthened net-zero ambitions, channeling renewed and more determined investment into carbon credits as a core component of their sustainability portfolios, accelerating market growth beyond pre-pandemic levels.
The forestry and land use projects segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The forestry and land use projects segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period. Projects such as REDD+ present substantial potential for carbon sequestration on a scale that many technological solutions currently cannot match. Additionally, these projects provide important extra benefits like protecting wildlife, managing water resources, and helping local communities, which fit well with companies' environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals This powerful combination of high-impact climate action and positive socio-ecological outcomes makes it a preferred choice for a wide range of corporate buyers.
The gold standard (GS) credits segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the gold standard (GS) credits segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate due to its renowned rigor and focus on sustainable development. In a market increasingly wary of quality concerns, GS certification provides a trusted benchmark for credit integrity. Buyers are actively seeking these credits because the label assures not only real emissions reductions but also measurable contributions to UN Sustainable Development Goals. This premium reputation allows GS credits to command higher prices and capture a growing share of the market as demand shifts decisively towards quality.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share. The well-developed financial ecosystem in the United States and Canada facilitates carbon market transactions, while a surge in net-zero pledges from major corporations creates consistent, high-volume demand. Furthermore, early mover advantage and a mature landscape of project developers, brokers, and advisory services have solidified the region's dominant position, making it the central hub for market activity and innovation in the voluntary carbon space.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, fueled by its immense potential for carbon project development and rising corporate engagement. The region offers vast opportunities for nature-based and renewable energy projects, attracting significant investment. Moreover, growing awareness of climate risks and increasing pressure on multinational corporations with supply chains in the region are driving local demand for offsets. This combination of abundant supply potential and escalating demand creates a powerful growth dynamic that outpaces more mature markets.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Voluntary Carbon Market include Verra, Gold Standard Foundation, American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, South Pole Group, Carbon Direct, Sylvera, Nori, Indigo Ag, Xpansiv CBL, AirCarbon Exchange, ClimatePartner, Natural Capital Partners, EcoAct, 3Degrees, and Moss Earth.
In June 2025, AirCarbon Exchange (ACX) announced regional exchange partnerships and launched new ACX platforms (ACXRWA) to scale traded environmental products on its official press pages.
In March 2025, Xpansiv / CBL announced launch plans for standardized CBL GEO (CORSIA Phase 1) spot contracts and other market product updates on its official site.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.