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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1963991
热驱动热泵市场-全球产业规模、份额、趋势、机会、预测:依产品类型、应用、技术、地区和竞争格局划分,2021-2031年Thermally Driven Heat Pump Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented, By Product Type, By Application, By Technology, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F |
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全球热驱动热泵市场预计将从 2025 年的 612.8 亿美元成长到 2031 年的 947.8 亿美元,复合年增长率为 7.54%。
这些专用供暖和製冷系统利用天然气、工业废热和太阳能等热能输入来驱动吸附式或引擎式循环,而不是主要依赖电力。该行业的成长受特定因素驱动,特别是透过回收低品位废热实现工业活动脱碳的紧迫性,以及透过能源来源多元化来降低高峰时段电网负载的需求。
| 市场概览 | |
|---|---|
| 预测期 | 2027-2031 |
| 市场规模:2025年 | 612.8亿美元 |
| 市场规模:2031年 | 947.8亿美元 |
| 复合年增长率:2026-2031年 | 7.54% |
| 成长最快的细分市场 | 垂直整合的闭合迴路 |
| 最大的市场 | 亚太地区 |
儘管热泵具有这些优势,但与传统的石化燃料锅炉和全电动锅炉相比,热泵市场仍面临着许多障碍,主要源于高昂的初始资本支出和缺乏持续的政策支持。这种严峻的经济环境正在对整个热泵产业产生负面影响,进而影响到对热能创新领域的投资水准。根据欧洲热泵协会的数据,预计到2024年,欧洲13个主要国家的热泵销售量将下降约23%,凸显了市场萎缩的风险和波动性,阻碍了热泵产业的快速成长。
工业余热回收的广泛应用是热泵市场的主要驱动力,尤其是在重工业和製造业领域。与电力系统不同,这些系统利用工业製程产生的剩余热能来驱动吸收式或吸附式循环。这可以将低品位热能转化为高价值、高温输出,而不会增加电网负担。随着区域供热网路的扩展,这种能力变得日益重要,因为区域供热网路需要可靠的低碳能源来源来摆脱对波动性电力市场的依赖。政府资金积极支持此类转型。例如,在2024年1月发布的关于第七期绿色供热网络基金的新闻稿中,英国能源安全与净零排放部宣布已拨款8060万英镑用于永续供热项目,优先考虑利用城市供热网络余热的计划。
此外,政府对永续暖气技术的财政奖励是抵销先进吸附技术高昂初始投资成本的关键机制。政策制定者旨在透过提供大量补贴和津贴,降低能源密集产业实施非电力温度控管系统的风险,并有效缩小传统锅炉与清洁替代技术之间的差距。为了强调这项支持力度,美国能源局于2024年3月宣布,已在「工业示范计画」下拨款60亿美元,用于能源密集型产业的脱碳,从而创造一个鼓励替代供暖投资的环境。正如国际能源总署(IEA)在2024年报告的那样,工业部门约占全球能源相关二氧化碳排放的25%,凸显了高效能热驱动技术的紧迫性。此类奖励对于解决该产业对环境的影响至关重要。
热泵的广泛应用仍面临许多重大障碍。高昂的初始资本投入和政策框架的不完全是主要原因。与标准电加热设备或传统燃气锅炉相比,热泵系统需要在设备和安装方面前期投资。因此,终端用户的投资回报很大程度上取决于可靠的政府奖励和稳定的能源价格边际收益。当监管环境波动或补贴取消时,商业和工业用户往往会推迟现代化改造计划,优先选择更经济、更成熟的石化燃料方案,以最大限度地降低财务风险。
这种普遍存在的经济不确定性直接抑制了市场情绪,阻碍了製造商扩大生产,导致单价持续高涨。在政策变化阻碍产品普及的关键市场,这种波动的影响尤其显着。例如,根据德国热泵协会统计,2024年上半年热泵销量年减54%。这一急剧下滑表明,整个市场对经济不确定性十分敏感,不利于热驱动技术这一细分市场的成长。
在製造商致力于为电力基础设施有限的建筑提供高效节能替代方案的推动下,燃气热泵在维修应用中的普及速度正在加快。这些系统使用氢气混合气体或天然气,为全面电气化成本高昂的商业设施提供了可行的脱碳途径。旨在加速产品开发和部署的产业策略重组清晰地印证了这一趋势。根据 Cooling Post 2024 年 8 月发表的题为「Panasonic与洋马成立燃气热泵合资企业」的报导报道,Panasonic控股和洋马能源系统公司已同意成立一家合资企业(Panasonic51%,洋马持股 49%),共同开发和生产面向燃气引擎。
同时,混合式热电热泵系统的发展正在加速,以确保电网稳定性并提高尖峰时段用电需求期间的燃料柔软性。这种架构将电热泵与燃烧热源单元结合,可根据即时价格和环境温度优化能源利用。这项技术的市场重要性已显着提升,以至于产业有必要对其进行专门监测。根据2024年9月发布的更新报告《热泵协会按类型发布热泵销售数据》,热泵协会已开始在其基于工厂出货量的销售统计数据中将集成式混合热泵作为一个独立类别进行跟踪,从而为衡量这些双燃料技术在英国的日益普及提供了新的透明度。
The Global Thermally Driven Heat Pump Market is projected to expand from USD 61.28 Billion in 2025 to USD 94.78 Billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.54%. These specialized heating and cooling systems operate by leveraging thermal energy inputs-such as natural gas, industrial waste heat, or solar thermal energy-to power sorption or engine-based cycles, rather than depending primarily on electricity. The sector's growth is underpinned by specific drivers, most notably the urgent need to decarbonize industrial activities through the recovery of low-grade waste heat and the necessity to mitigate stress on electrical grids during peak demand times by diversifying energy sources.
| Market Overview | |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2027-2031 |
| Market Size 2025 | USD 61.28 Billion |
| Market Size 2031 | USD 94.78 Billion |
| CAGR 2026-2031 | 7.54% |
| Fastest Growing Segment | Vertical Closed Loop |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific |
Despite these benefits, the market encounters considerable obstacles stemming from elevated initial capital expenditures and a lack of consistent policy backing relative to conventional fossil fuel boilers or fully electric alternatives. This difficult economic climate has negatively affected the wider heat pump industry, subsequently influencing investment levels in thermally driven innovations. Data from the European Heat Pump Association indicates that in 2024, heat pump sales across 13 key European nations fell by roughly 23%, highlighting the market contraction risks and volatility that are currently impeding rapid expansion.
Market Driver
The increasing adoption of industrial waste heat recovery acts as a primary catalyst for the thermally driven heat pump market, specifically within heavy processing and manufacturing sectors. Unlike their electric counterparts, these systems harness surplus thermal energy from industrial operations to drive absorption or adsorption cycles, converting low-grade heat into valuable high-temperature outputs without adding load to the electrical grid. This capability is becoming increasingly critical for the expansion of district heating networks, which require reliable, low-carbon energy sources to decouple from volatile electricity markets. Such transitions are being actively supported by state funding; for instance, the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero announced in a January 2024 press release regarding the 'Green Heat Network Fund Round 7' that £80.6 million was awarded to sustainable heating projects, prioritizing those utilizing waste heat sources for urban networks.
Furthermore, government financial incentives for sustainable heating technologies serve as a crucial mechanism to counterbalance the high upfront capital costs associated with advanced sorption technologies. By providing substantial subsidies and grants, policymakers aim to de-risk the implementation of non-electric thermal management systems in energy-intensive industries, effectively narrowing the gap between traditional boilers and cleaner alternatives. Highlighting this support, the U.S. Department of Energy announced in March 2024 under the 'Industrial Demonstrations Program' that $6 billion had been allocated to decarbonize energy-intensive industries, creating an environment conducive to alternative heating investments. These incentives are vital for addressing the sector's environmental footprint, as the International Energy Agency reported in 2024 that the industrial sector accounted for approximately 25% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, underscoring the urgent need for efficient thermally driven technologies.
Market Challenge
Substantial barriers to the widespread adoption of thermally driven heat pumps persist due to high initial capital expenditures and inconsistent policy frameworks. These systems typically require a larger upfront financial commitment for equipment and installation compared to standard electric units or conventional gas boilers. Consequently, the return on investment for end-users is heavily contingent upon reliable government incentives and stable differentials in energy prices. When regulatory landscapes fluctuate or subsidies are retracted, commercial and industrial operators frequently delay modernization projects, preferring instead to utilize cheaper, established fossil fuel options to minimize financial risk.
This prevailing economic uncertainty directly dampens market confidence, causing manufacturers to hesitate in scaling up production, which in turn keeps unit costs elevated. The impact of such volatility is evident in major markets where policy shifts have disrupted deployment. For example, the German Heat Pump Association reported that in the first half of 2024, heat pump sales declined by 54 percent compared to the same period in the previous year. This sharp contraction underscores the broader market's sensitivity to economic instability, creating an environment that impedes the niche growth of thermally driven technologies.
Market Trends
The deployment of gas heat pumps in retrofit applications is gaining momentum as manufacturers strive to provide high-efficiency alternatives for buildings with limited electrical infrastructure. Utilizing hydrogen blends or natural gas, these systems offer a feasible decarbonization pathway for commercial facilities where full electrification is cost-prohibitive. This trend is exemplified by strategic industry consolidations designed to accelerate product development and deployment; according to a Cooling Post article from August 2024 titled 'Panasonic and Yanmar to form gas heat pump JV,' Panasonic Holdings and Yanmar Energy Systems agreed to establish a joint venture company-owned 51 percent by Panasonic and 49 percent by Yanmar-specifically to develop and manufacture next-generation gas engine heat pumps for the commercial market.
Simultaneously, the development of hybrid thermal-electric heat pump systems is accelerating to address grid stability concerns and offer fuel flexibility during peak demand. These architectures combine an electric heat pump with a thermal combustion unit, optimizing energy use based on real-time prices and ambient temperatures. The market significance of this technology has grown sufficiently to warrant dedicated industry monitoring; according to a September 2024 update titled 'Heat Pump Association reveals heat pump sales data by type,' the Heat Pump Association began explicitly tracking integrated hybrid heat pumps as a distinct category in their factory-gate sales statistics, creating a new layer of transparency to measure the rising adoption of these dual-fuel technologies in the UK.
Report Scope
In this report, the Global Thermally Driven Heat Pump Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:
Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Thermally Driven Heat Pump Market.
Global Thermally Driven Heat Pump Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report: