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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1372114
全球水力发电市场 - 2023-2030Global Hydropower Market - 2023-2030 |
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全球水力发电市场2022年达到2,441亿美元,预计2030年将达到3,482亿美元,2023-2030年预测期间复合年增长率为4.8%。
随着不断的创新和不断变化的能源政策,全球水力发电市场正在经历显着成长。虽然水力发电有着近 150 年的悠久历史,但最近的重点是调整和增强技术,以满足现代电力系统和再生能源整合不断变化的需求。由于初始投资较高且开发时间较长,水力发电的扩张往往依赖公共部门的参与。
此外,由于初始投资较高且开发时间较长,水力发电的扩张往往依赖公共部门的参与。根据 IEA 的数据,全球水力发电量增加了近 70*TWh,增幅接近 2%。其成长归因于2021-2022年期间强劲的产能部署。 2022年,新增产能达到32*GW,比前五年平均高出40%。
亚太地区是水力发电产业最大的市场,中国和印度等国家出现了大幅成长。 IEA表示,中国在水力发电市场占据主导地位,预计到2030年将维持这一地位。预计在预测期内,中国将占全球装置容量成长的40%。印度正成为世界水力发电产业第二大成长市场。
水力发电市场预计将受到对再生能源不断增长的需求的推动,而再生能源的需求是向更永续和低碳能源过渡的需要所驱动的。 IEA表示,为了与净零排放情境保持一致,2023年至2030年间再生能源供应需要每年增加13%左右。这意味着大幅成长率将超过再生能源部署的历史水准。
2022 年,水力发电的出现在非生物能源再生能源实现历史第二高份额成长方面发挥了重要作用。儘管由于 COVID-19 大流行和能源消耗总量下降,2020 年经历了独特的情况,但水力发电的持续贡献有助于推动再生能源的成长。无论从装置容量(占再生能源总量的 38%)或发电量(50%)来看,水力发电都是最大的再生电力技术。它在再生能源领域的既定地位凸显了其在永续满足全球能源需求方面的重要性。
水电市场预计将受到政府激励措施和政策的推动。例如,在欧洲,抽水蓄能水力发电发电能力取得了重大进展。据IEA称,到2022年,近2吉瓦的抽水蓄能水力发电装置投产,标誌着产能扩张的里程碑。瑞士和葡萄牙的计画旨在加强太阳能光伏和风能的整合。
在美国,2022 年 8 月通过的《通货膨胀削减法案》等政策显示了政府对水力发电的支持。它立法增加和扩大税收抵免,以鼓励水电技术的采用和开发。此外,30 个国家也制定了明确针对新建和现有水力发电厂的政策。此外,与其他可变再生能源相比,全球各国政府将大型和小型水力发电容量纳入其长期部署目标、能源计画和再生能源激励框架。
水力发电市场受到风能和太阳能替代品成长的影响,导致再生能源格局发生变化。在过去的二十年中,大多数再生能源政策都集中在风能和太阳能光电技术上。它的重点是透过安装目标、财政激励和长期购电合约等措施实现的。政策对风能和太阳能的集中关注影响了其快速部署和容量成长。
风能和太阳能光电技术在再生能源领域迅速普及。根据 IEA 的数据,它们约占 2022 年再生能源发电创纪录成长的 85%,超过 600*TWh。它的巨大贡献部分是以牺牲水力发电市场的成长份额为代价的。风电、太阳能发电量大幅成长,而水力发电发电量扩张相对缓慢,2022年增幅约2%,凸显了风电、太阳能等替代能源对水力发电的竞争压力。
此外,100多个国家针对风能和太阳能光电实施了有针对性的政策和激励措施。这些政策促进了风能和太阳能发电的采用和扩大,进一步加剧了再生能源之间的投资和市场份额竞争。随着风能和太阳能技术日益主导产能增加和成长,水力发电的相对市场份额下降。针对风能和太阳能的政策和激励措施有助于重塑全球再生能源市场的组成。
Global Hydropower Market reached US$ 244.1 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach US$ 348.2 billion by 2030, growing with a CAGR of 4.8% during the forecast period 2023-2030.
The hydropower market is experiencing significant growth globally with ongoing innovation and evolving energy policies. While hydropower has a long history spanning almost 150 years, the recent focus has been on adapting and enhancing the technology to meet the changing demands of modern power systems and renewable energy integration. The expansion of hydropower has often relied on public-sector involvement due to the high initial investments and longer development timelines.
Furthermore, the expansion of hydropower has often relied on public-sector involvement due to the high initial investments and longer development timelines. According to IEA, global hydropower generation increased by almost 70*TWh, representing a growth of close to 2%. It growth was attributed to strong capacity deployment during the period of 2021-2022. In 2022, capacity additions reached 32*GW, which was 40% higher than the average of the previous five years.
Asia-Pacific is the largest market in the hydropower industry witnessing substantial growth in nations like China and India. According to IEA, China holds a dominant position in the hydropower market and is projected to maintain this position through 2030. It is expected to account for 40% of global capacity growth in the forecast period. India is emerging as the world's second-largest growth market in the hydropower sector.
The hydropower market is expected to be driven by the growing demand for renewable energy driven by the need to transition towards more sustainable and low-carbon energy sources. According to IEA, to align with the Net Zero Emissions Scenario, the supply of renewable energy needs to increase by around 13% annually between 2023 and 2030. It signifies a substantial growth rate that exceeds the historical levels of renewable capacity deployment.
In 2022, the availability of hydropower played a role in allowing non-bioenergy renewables to achieve their second-highest share growth in history. While 2020 experienced a unique situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a decrease in total energy consumption, hydropower's consistent contribution has helped to drive renewable energy growth. Hydropower stands out as the largest renewable electricity technology by both capacity (38% of renewables total) and generation (50%). Its established position in the renewable energy landscape underscores its significance in meeting global energy demands sustainably.
The hydropower market is expected to be driven by government incentives and policies. For instance, in Europe, there has been significant progress in pumped storage hydropower capacity. According to IEA, in 2022, almost 2 GW of pumped storage hydropower capacity was commissioned, marking a milestone in capacity expansion. The projects in Switzerland and Portugal are designed to enhance solar PV and wind integration.
In United States, policies like the Inflation Reduction Act, passed in August 2022, demonstrate government support for hydropower. It legislation increases and extends tax credits to encourage the adoption and development of hydropower technologies. Also, 30 countries have established policies explicitly targeting new and existing hydropower plants. Also, governments globally integrate both large and small hydropower capacities into their long-term deployment targets, energy plans and renewable energy incentive frameworks, comparable to other variable renewables.
The hydropower market is impacted by the growth of wind and solar alternatives contributing to changes in the renewable energy landscape. In the past two decades, the majority of renewable energy policies have been focused on wind and solar PV technologies. It emphasis has been achieved through measures like installation targets, financial incentives and long-term power purchase contracts. The concentrated policy attention on wind and solar has influenced their rapid deployment and capacity growth.
Wind and solar PV technologies have been rapidly gaining ground in the renewable energy sector. According to IEA, they accounted for approximately 85% of the record growth in renewable electricity generation in 2022, which exceeded 600*TWh. It substantial contribution has partly come at the expense of the hydropower market's share of growth. While wind and solar experienced significant growth, the expansion of hydropower generation was comparatively slower, with an increase of about 2% in 2022. It highlights the competitive pressure that alternatives like wind and solar have exerted on hydropower.
Furthermore, over 100 countries have implemented targeted policies and incentives for wind and solar PV. The policies have fostered the adoption and expansion of wind and solar capacity, further intensifying competition for investments and market share among renewable energy sources. As wind and solar technologies increasingly dominate capacity additions and growth, hydropower's relative market share has experienced a decline. The policies and incentives directed toward wind and solar have contributed to reshaping the composition of the global renewable energy market.
The global hydropower market is segmented based on technology, application, size and region.
Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) plants are the fastest growing segment in technology within hydropower, as many countries are adopting PSH projects to ensure a steady power supply as renewable energy capacity grows. China is rapidly expanding pumped storage to support its increasing reliance on wind and solar energy. According to assessments by the International Hydropower Association (IHA), pumped hydro initiatives across the world have the capacity to store an impressive 9,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electrical energy.
PSH projects are gaining traction globally. China, United States and Australia are investing in PSH to complement their renewable energy portfolios. The projects contribute to grid reliability and help balance supply and demand. The technology dominates globally, encompassing more than 94% of the total installed capacity for energy storage. It dominance is notably ahead of alternatives like lithium-ion batteries and other battery variants.
Asia-Pacific is dominating the hydropower market significantly driven by policies and new developments in the region. China played a significant role in capacity growth, accounting for three-quarters of the added capacity in 2022. It growth was largely due to the commissioning of several large-scale hydropower projects. According to IEA, Chinese companies are projected to be engaged in approximately 45% of all hydropower plant capacity that is planned to be built by 2030.
Furthermore, India is actively working on the development of several large hydropower projects. The projects are expected to contribute significant capacity to the overall energy mix in the upcoming years. Hydropower is a crucial technology for India's commitment to reaching 500 GW of non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030. As the country seeks to expand its renewable energy capacity, hydropower plays a vital role in diversifying the energy mix and reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
The major global players in the market include: China Three Gorges Corporation, Electricite de France S.A., Hydro-Quebec, Duke Energy Corporation, Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A., PJSC RusHydro, Ontario Power Generation Inc., Statkraft AS., Sn Power Holding Singapore Pte. Ltd and Itaipu Binacional.
COVID-19 made a significant impact on the global hydropower market by causing disruption in supply chains, causing delays in the delivery of critical components and equipment for hydropower projects. Many projects rely on international suppliers and lockdowns, travel restrictions and reduced production capacity had led to supply chain challenges. Some projects have been postponed or canceled altogether due to uncertainties caused by the pandemic.
Emerging economies and developing countries, where demand for energy is rapidly growing, have faced financing challenges. Reduced power demand during the pandemic has affected utility revenues, making it difficult for cash-strapped state utilities and governments to finance large infrastructure projects. The pandemic has led to changes in energy demand patterns, with some regions experiencing decreased demand due to lockdowns and economic slowdowns.
The Russia-Ukraine war made a significant impact on Ukraine's hydropower plants, resulting in damage and disruptions to the country's energy infrastructure. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, energy facilities have been targeted in air strikes, leading to severe damage to the hydropower sector. Ukrhydroenergo, a state-run hydropower generating company revealed that four out of Ukraine's nine hydropower plants had been damaged due to Russian attacks. The attacks primarily focused on electrical equipment and machine rooms at plants located on the Dnipro and Dniester rivers.
The attacks have resulted in a loss of around 2,000 MW of capacity out of the total 6,300 MW capacity of the nine hydropower plants. The plants typically contribute around 10% of Ukraine's energy production. Despite the damage and ongoing war, efforts are being made to restore the capacity of the damaged hydropower plants. Engineers have already restored 500 MW of capacity and plan to restore the remaining capacity as soon as possible, with a focus on implementing better protection measures.
Impoundment or reservoir
Run-of-river
The global hydropower market report would provide approximately 61 tables, 59 figures and 203 Pages.
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