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全球脱碳市场 - 2024-2031Global Decarbonization Market - 2024-2031 |
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2023年全球脱碳市场规模达1.84兆美元,预计2031年将达到4.38兆美元,2024-2031年预测期间复合年增长率为11.42%。
由于各国政府、企业和组织不断增加应对气候变迁和实现永续发展目标的倡议,全球脱碳市场正在迅速扩大。脱碳是指减少或消除整个工业、商业和住宅部门二氧化碳(CO2)和其他温室气体排放的过程。这通常是透过转向清洁能源、提高能源效率和使用碳捕获技术来实现的。
旨在降低全球排放的强有力的政府法规和国际协议推动了脱碳市场。得到近 200 个国家签署的《巴黎协定》制定了崇高目标,将全球气温升高限制在比工业化前水准高出 2°C 的范围内,其中理想目标是 1.5°C。因此,全球各国政府都制定了碳中和或净零排放目标。例如,欧盟在其《欧洲绿色协议》中承诺在2050年成为第一个气候中和的大陆,这将对脱碳技术的需求产生相当大的影响。
亚太地区是脱碳解决方案成长最快的市场,其推动因素包括不断增长的能源需求、优先考虑永续发展的政府政策以及人们日益认识到应对气候变迁的必要性。亚太地区一些最大的新兴经济体,包括中国、印度、日本和东南亚,在减少碳排放和向低碳经济转型方面正在取得实质进展。
根据世界经济论坛的数据,到 2040 年,包括中国和印度在内的亚洲将占全球能源需求的 43%。此外,该地区将贡献当年需求成长的 50% 以上,巩固其作为全球能源转型关键参与者的地位。
动力学
脱碳技术进步
脱碳措施高度依赖能源储存、再生能源和碳捕获与储存(CCS)领域的技术创新。为了与化石燃料相比更具成本竞争力,太阳能、风能和水力发电不断扩大其市场份额。根据国际再生能源机构(IRENA)的数据,从2010年到2020年,太阳能光电发电成本下降了89%,而离岸风能成本下降了70%。这些发展有助于向更健康的能源过渡,并减少对煤炭、石油和天然气的依赖。
直接空气捕集和点源捕集正在被整合到工业流程中,碳捕集技术,特别是 CCUS,已成为脱碳的焦点。根据国际能源总署 (IEA) 永续发展设想,到 2070 年,能源部门的全球二氧化碳净排放量将被消除,碳捕集与封存 (CCS) 每年可减少约 56 亿吨二氧化碳。年),大约是目前每年4000 万吨水准的140 倍。
大力投资绿色技术
目前,脱碳市场最显着的驱动力是再生能源技术的投资。这项转型是更广泛转型的组成部分,国际能源总署 (IEA) 报告称,再生能源与化石燃料的投资比例目前接近每美元化石燃料投资 2 美元。例如,2022 年的通货膨胀削减法案 (IRA) 就是美国的一个鲜明例子。该立法拨款 3,690 亿美元用于永续能源计划,其中包括对再生电力和碳捕获技术的补贴。
政府补贴、税收抵免和财政激励措施鼓励儘早采用这些技术。例如,国际能源总署预测,2024年仅太阳能光电技术的投资就将超过5,000亿美元,这是全球新发电单一能源技术投资最高的。此外,随着各国加大力度整合再生能源,新获得的电力的很大一部分将分配给电网基础设施。
监管不确定性与融资挑战
儘管全球致力于脱碳,但政策不一致和监管不确定性仍然是加速转型的关键挑战。儘管许多国家製定了长期气候目标,但短期政策的实施情况,特别是在发展中国家,仍然参差不齐。国际能源总署(IEA)呼吁发出更明确的政策讯号并加强国际合作,以避免碎片化并确保向低碳经济的平稳过渡。
此外,儘管清洁能源投资不断增长,但融资仍存在巨大缺口,特别是在发展中国家。国际金融公司 (IFC) 估计,到 2030 年全球向净零排放过渡将需要 23 兆美元,但目前的资金水平不足。动员私部门融资,特别是中小企业和新兴经济体的融资,对于实现全球脱碳目标至关重要。
Global Decarbonization Market reached US$ 1.84 trillion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 4.38 trillion by 2031, growing with a CAGR of 11.42% during the forecast period 2024-2031.
The global decarbonization market is rapidly expanding due to governments, corporations and organizations escalating their initiatives to address climate change and achieve sustainability objectives. Decarbonization refers to the process of decreasing or eliminating carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions throughout the industrial, commercial and residential sectors. This is generally accomplished through the shift to cleaner energy sources, enhancements in energy efficiency and the use of carbon capture technologies.
The decarbonization market is fueled by strong governmental regulations and international agreements aimed at lowering global emissions. The Paris Agreement, endorsed by almost 200 nations, established lofty objectives to restrict global temperature increase to much below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C. Consequently, governments globally have established carbon neutrality or net-zero emission objectives. For instance, the European Union has committed to being the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 under its European Green Deal, which will have a considerable impact on the demand for decarbonization technologies.
Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing market for decarbonization solutions, driven by the growing demand for energy, government policies that prioritize sustainability and the growing recognition of the necessity to address climate change. Some of the largest emergent economies in APAC, including China, India, Japan and Southeast Asia, are making substantial progress in the reduction of carbon emissions and the transition to a low-carbon economy.
By 2040, Asia, which encompasses China and India, will account for 43% of global energy demand, according to the World Economic Forum. Additionally, the region will contribute over 50% of the demand growth during that year, solidifying its position as a key actor in the global energy transition.
Dynamics
Technological Advancements in Decarbonization
Decarbonization initiatives are highly dependent on technological innovations in energy storage, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS). In order to become more cost-competitive with fossil fuels, solar, wind and hydroelectric power continue to expand their market share. From 2010 to 2020, the cost of electricity from solar photovoltaics has decreased by 89%, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), while offshore wind energy costs have decreased by 70%. The developments are aiding in the transition to healthier energy sources and decreasing the dependence on coal, oil and natural gas.
Direct air capture and point-source capture are being integrated into industrial processes and carbon capture technologies, particularly CCUS, have become a focal point for decarbonization. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Sustainable Development Scenario, in which net global CO2 emissions from the energy sector are eliminated by 2070, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is responsible for the mitigation of approximately 5.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by 2050 (GtCO2/yr), which is approximately 140 times the current level of 40 million tonnes per year.
Heavy Investment in Green Technologies
Currently, the decarbonization marketplace is most significantly driven by investment in renewable energy technologies. This transition is a component of a broader transition and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that the investment ratio of renewable energy to fossil fuels is now nearly two dollars per dollar of investment in fossil fuels. For instance, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 constitutes a stark U.S. example. This legislation allocates $369 billion to sustainable energy initiatives, which encompass subsidies for renewable electricity and carbon capture technologies.
Government subsidies, tax credits and financial incentives encourage the early adoption of these technologies. As an example, the International Energy Agency predicts that the investment in solar photovoltaic technology alone will surpass US$ 500 billion in 2024, which is the highest amount of investment in any single energy technology globally for new power generation. Furthermore, a significant portion of the newly acquired power will be allocated to grid infrastructure as nations intensify their efforts to integrate renewable energy sources.
Regulatory Uncertainty and Financing Challenges
Despite the global commitment to decarbonization, policy inconsistency and regulatory uncertainty remain key challenges in accelerating the transition. While many countries have established long-term climate goals, the implementation of short-term policies, particularly in developing nations, remains uneven. The International Energy Agency (IEA) calls for clearer policy signals and greater international cooperation to avoid fragmentation and ensure a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy.
Furthermore, While investment in clean energy is growing, there are still significant gaps in financing, particularly in developing nations. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) estimates that US$ 23 trillion will be required for the global transition to net-zero emissions by 2030, but current funding levels fall short. Mobilizing private sector financing, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and emerging economies, will be crucial to meeting global decarbonization targets.
The global decarbonization market is segmented based on service, technology, deployment, end-user and region.
The Demand for Renewable Energy Transition
The renewable energy sector is at the forefront of the global decarbonization market, with projections indicating that it must account for at least 90% of global power generation by 2050 in order to meet the climate targets established by international agreements. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) underscores that solar, wind and hydropower will serve as the primary sources of energy during this transition. The energy landscape is anticipated to be dominated by these renewable sources, necessitating significant investments in battery storage capacity to solve the problems associated with intermittent power supply.
Enhancing energy storage infrastructure and expanding the implemented capacity of renewable technologies are essential components of a comprehensive strategy to accomplish these ambitious objectives. Renewable energy units will be substituted for existing fossil fuel power plants during the transition, which is crucial for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. However, this transition results in elevated electricity expenses and necessitates planning to guarantee equitable energy access, as lower-income populations may be disproportionately affected.
High Technology Adoption Rates and Strong Consumer Awareness in North America
North America is currently at the forefront of the decarbonization initiative as a result of technological advancements, government incentives and regulatory frameworks. It is expected that US will remain the largest market for decarbonization technologies, such as renewable energy, electric vehicles and carbon capture methods. In comparison to emission levels in 2005, US government has committed to a 50% to 52% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030.
The reduction is accomplished through infrastructure projects and clean energy investments, which encompass the adoption of electric vehicles, the advancement of clean energy technology and the utilization and storage of carbon capture and utilization (CCUS). Similarly, the Decarbonization Incentive Program (DIP) of Canada is designed to support the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and encourage the long-term decarbonization of the country's industrial sectors. The demand for decarbonization in the region was further bolstered by this initiative.
The major global players in the market include Ernst & Young Global Limited, DNV, Armstrong International Inc., Boston Consulting Group, ABB, Deloitte, Arup, MAN, Siemens and Wartsila.
Sustainability Analysis
The decarbonization market is intrinsically linked to global sustainability objectives, focusing on reducing carbon footprints and combating climate change. As countries and organizations increasingly recognize the urgency of addressing climate issues, the demand for low-carbon technologies is surging. The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, is crucial in achieving international climate targets and fostering a sustainable future.
Moreover, many companies are committing to climate change mitigation by publicly disclosing their emissions and setting ambitious reduction targets. Initiatives like the science-based target initiatives and the UN's Global Compact are witnessing increased corporate participation, reflecting a growing recognition of sustainability's importance in business strategies. This evolution not only aids in reducing greenhouse gas emissions but also aligns with broader environmental goals, thereby paving the way for a resilient and sustainable economic future.
AI Impact
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the decarbonization market by optimizing processes, enabling predictive analytics and driving innovative solutions that accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. AI algorithms predict energy demand patterns, helping grid operators balance supply and demand more effectively. For instance, Google DeepMind has partnered with utilities to forecast energy consumption, reducing reliance on carbon-intensive backup systems.
AI-driven systems are revolutionizing carbon emissions tracking and management, which is critical for regulatory compliance and achieving decarbonization targets. Similarly, AI supports decarbonization in transportation by optimizing logistics, improving fuel efficiency and advancing autonomous vehicle technologies. Furthermore, AI models simulate the impact of various decarbonization strategies, helping governments and organizations prioritize investments and policies.
The global decarbonization market report would provide approximately 70 tables, 70 figures and 204 pages.
Target Audience 2024
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