全球电动公车和客车市场：成长机会（2030 年）

Global Growth Opportunities in the Electric Transit Bus and Coach Market, 2030

出版日期: 2024年02月21日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 116 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内

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欧洲、北美和印度的工业復苏

排放法规、电池价格下降、低排放区的出现、购买补贴和免税可能会推动全球电动公车的成长。电动交通巴士的日益普及为替代动力传动系统巴士的全球采购和供应铺平了道路。该行业是现有汽车製造商、供应商和希望进入该市场的新参与企业之间强有力合作的沃土。到2023年，纯电动（BEV）公车将获得更大的市场占有率，其次是燃料电池电动公车。与柴油公车相比，电动公车的总拥有成本较低，加上充电基础设施的发展，将使电动公车成为 2024 年至 2026 年间盈利的选择。

全球电动客车市场规模预计将以12.6%的复合年增长率成长，到2030年将达到16万辆以上。

欧盟国家的洁净汽车指令目标可能会推动电动公车的采用，特别是作为大众交通工具采购的一部分。预计 2022 年至 2025 年纯电动公车将出现强劲成长。欧洲氢能汽车联合倡议（JIVE）计划将加速燃料电池公车在欧盟国家的采用。电力公司和能源巨头进入充电基础设施将支持电动车加油基础设施的成长。

在中国，由于补贴和购买奖励的取消，纯电动公车预计在 2022 年至 2025 年期间将出现温和成长。中国补贴制度的修订收紧了电动续航里程和能源效率阈值作为最低资格要求。然而，随着电池价格的下降和充电基础设施的发展，预计到2030年电动公车将变得普及。此外，中国电动客车OEM製造商不仅透过出口，还透过建立製造和组装工厂在全球迅速扩张。

ZEBRA（零排放公车快速部署加速器）将在麦德林、圣保罗和墨西哥城首次推出，加速拉丁美洲电动公车的采用。拉丁美洲主要国家正在製定电动车战略，推广大众交通工具零排放公车，中国OEM正在建立区域製造基地，进军拉丁美洲。

减少排放气体的需求日益增长，特别是在人口稠密的城市，可能需要在城市内客运领域中更多地采用电动公车。儘管面临来自柴油和天然气公车的激烈竞争，但从这个意义上说，增加电池容量和积极开发充电基础设施技术将有所帮助，并可能提高电动动力传动系统在乘用车领域的采用率。

Emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions will drive electric bus growth across the world. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has opened the path for global sourcing and supply of alternate powertrain buses. The industry is fertile ground for strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. By 2023, battery-electric (BEV) buses will attain a larger market share followed by fuel-cell electric buses. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses in comparison to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026.

The global electric bus market size will reach more than 160,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6%.

EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses will experience strong growth from 2022 to 2025. Joint Initiative for Hydrogen Vehicles across Europe (JIVE) projects will encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fueling infrastructure for electric vehicles.

In China, BEV buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the elimination of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However, lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption toward 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports.

Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) will drive electric bus adoption in Latin America with initial kickstarts in Medellin, Sao Paulo, and Mexico City. Major LATAM countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation, and Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM.

The increasing need to reduce emissions, especially in highly populated cities, will require a greater adoption of electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities and aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies will help in that sense, increasing the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment, albeit with stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses.

Strategic Imperatives

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Bus Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

Global Bus Market: Regional Split
Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot
Global Bus Powertrain Outlook
Market Presence of Leading Bus Manufacturers

Study Scope

Electric Bus Market Scope of Analysis
Product and Technology Segmentation
Key Growth Metrics for Global Electric Bus Market
Growth Drivers for Electric Bus Adoption
Growth Restraints for Electric Bus Adoption
Key Forecast Criteria

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Overview

Key Factors Impacting Electrification
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis
Snapshot of xEV Bus Market by Region in 2030
Electric Bus Market: Regional Split by Technology, 2030
Key Electric Bus Use Cases
Electric Transit Bus Regional Pricing Outlook
Electric Coaches Regional Pricing Outlook

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, North America

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: North America
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: North America
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: North America
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, North America
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, North America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV and FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping: North America
Battery and Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and NA Regions

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, Europe

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: Europe
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: Europe
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: Europe
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, Europe
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, Europe
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM: Motor Type Mapping, Europe
OEM: Battery Chemistry Mapping, Europe
Regional Snapshot: Germany
Regional Snapshot: France
Regional Snapshot: Spain
Regional Snapshot: Italy
Regional Snapshot: United Kingdom
Battery Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and EU Countries
Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and EU Countries

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, China

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: China
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: China
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: China
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, China
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, China
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
Battery Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Chinese Cities
Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Chinese Cities

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, India

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: India
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: India-FAME-II
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: India
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, India
Coach Market: Powertrain Forecast, India
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping: India
Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Indian States

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, Latin America

Key Growth Metrics for Overall Bus: LATAM
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: LATAM
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: LATAM
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, Latin America
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, Latin America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping
OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping
Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and LATAM Countries

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Moving Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation through Electrification
Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Revenue Opportunities for Value Chain Participant Growth
Growth Opportunity 3: Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for FCEV Buses Across Segments and Use Cases