2024 年全球客车市场成长机会

Global Bus Growth Opportunities, 2024

出版日期: 2024年09月19日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 69 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内

价格

简介目录

欧洲、北美和印度零排放公车强劲成长

预计到 2024 年，全球客车产业保有量将达到 234,000 辆。印度销售的復苏和欧洲的健康成长推动了强劲的成长。由于政府为更换老化车队和替代动力传动系统提供补贴，公车巴士的需求有所增长，而长途客车的成长则受到旅游业蓬勃发展和 COVID-19 大流行后恢復正常的推动。

在电动巴士（eBus）方面，排放法规、电池价格下降、低排放气体区的出现、购买补贴和免税将推动增长，而电动运输巴士的日益普及将带来替代动力传动系统巴士的世界这为采购和供应开启了新的机会。该行业是现有汽车製造商、供应商和寻求进入该行业的新进入者之间强有力合作的沃土。

欧盟清洁汽车指令等法规可能会鼓励电动巴士的采用，特别是作为国家大众交通工具采购的一部分。纯电动公车从 2024 年到 2027 年将出现强劲成长，主要公用事业和能源公司进入充电基础设施领域将推动电动车充电基础设施的成长。

关于公车上的 ADAS，从 2024 年 7 月起销售的所有车辆都将强制执行《通用车辆安全条例 2019/2144》。车辆所需的 ADAS 功能包括行人和骑车人侦测、盲点监控、正面碰撞警告、自动紧急煞车、智慧速度辅助、车道偏离警告以及驾驶员困倦和分心警告。

在中国，由于补贴和购买奖励的取消，纯电动公车在中期可能会出现温和成长。政府实施的农村客运、货运、邮政一体化政策，将可缓解过剩的大众交通工具运输能力，建立便利高效的新型农村交通服务模式。政府已宣布在 15 个试点城市探索创建绿色低碳交通系统。 2023年是中国全面放鬆疫情防治措施的第一年，中国长途客车成长强劲。此外，在製造和组装工厂的建立以及出口增加的推动下，中国电动巴士OEM正在全球迅速扩张。

在印度，耗资 70 亿美元的 PM-eBus Sewa 计画将在 169 个城市增加电动公车数量，并在 181 个城市引入绿色城市交通倡议。这包括车辆段基础设施的开发和升级以及电动公车用户电錶后端电力基础设施（变电站）的建设。

在拉丁美洲，ZEBRA（零排放公车快速部署加速器）计画将加速电动公车的采用，最初将在麦德林、圣保罗和墨西哥城推出。拉丁美洲主要国家正在製定电动车策略，以在大众交通工具中推广零排放公车。 ZEV 公车的竞标侧重于基于性能的合同，製造商满足强大的售后支援的要求，例如预防性保养和备件保固。

这项研究还涵盖以下主题：

值得注意的法规和义务
区域产业趋势及其影响
详细涵盖北美、欧洲、拉丁美洲、中国和印度
动力传动系统技术的区域份额，包括电动车和天然气汽车
来自不同OEM的动力传动系统技术产品系列
成长机会

作者：赛迪普‧苏达卡

The global bus industry is estimated to reach 2,34,000 units in 2024. The strong growth will be due to the bounce back in volumes in India and a healthy increase in Europe. Transit bus demand grew due to aging fleet replacement and government subsidies for alternate powertrains, while coach bus growth was driven by the thriving tourism industry and the return to normalcy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the electric bus (eBus) front, emission regulations, battery price drops, the emergence of low-emission zones, purchase subsidies, and tax exemptions will drive growth, while the growing adoption of electric transit buses has opened opportunities for the global sourcing and supply of alternate powertrain buses. The industry is fertile ground for strong collaboration among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new participants trying to enter.

Regulations such as the EU Clean Vehicle directive will boost eBus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses will experience strong growth from 2024 to 2027, and the entry of major utility and energy companies into the electric charging infrastructure space will boost the growth of fueling infrastructure for EVs.

For bus ADAS, General Vehicle Safety Regulation 2019/2144 will be mandatory for all vehicles sold from July 2024. Required ADAS features for vehicles include pedestrian and cyclist detection, blind spot monitoring, front collision warning, autonomous emergency braking, intelligent speed assistance, lane departure warning, and driver drowsiness and distraction warning.

In China, BEV buses will see moderate growth in the medium term due to the elimination of subsidies and purchase incentives. The government policy for the integration of rural passenger, freight, and postal services will alleviate public transportation's overcapacity and establish a new rural transportation service model that emphasizes convenience and efficiency. The government has announced 15 pilot cities to explore the construction of a green and low-carbon transportation system. Chinese coach buses registered strong growth as 2023 was the 1st year when the country's pandemic control policies were completely relaxed. In addition, Chinese eBus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, driven by the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants and growing exports.

In India, the $7 billion PM-eBus Sewa scheme will augment eBuses in 169 cities and introduce green urban mobility initiatives in 181 cities. This includes the development and upgradation of depot infrastructure and the creation of behind-the-meter power infrastructure (substation) for eBuses.

In Latin America, the Zero-emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) program will drive eBus adoption, with initial kickstarts in Medellin, Sao Paulo, and Mexico City. Major Latin American countries are developing electromobility strategies to promote zero-emission buses in public transportation, while Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into the region. ZEV bus tenders focus on performance-based contracts where manufacturers meet requirements for strong post-sales support, including preventive maintenance and guaranteed spare parts.

The study also covers the following topics:

Notable regulations and mandates
Top industry trends and impact by region
In-depth coverage of North America, Europe, Latin America, China, and India
Powertrain technology share by region, including electric and natural gas vehicles
Different OEMs' powertrain technology product portfolios
Growth opportunities

Authored by: Saideep Sudhakar

Strategic Imperatives

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Bus Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Scope and Segmentation

Research Scope
Segmentation

Growth Environment

Key Findings: A Recap of 2023
Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2024
Transit Buses and Coaches Market
Market Forecast
Market Forecast by Region and Segment
2024 Bus Powertrain Technology Forecast
Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot

North America

Market Outlook: North America
Quarterly Bus Sales: North America
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: North America
Bus OEM Sales Performance: North America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America

Europe

Market Outlook: Europe
Quarterly Bus Sales: Europe
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: Europe
Bus OEM Sales Performance: Europe
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

China

Market Outlook: China
Quarterly Bus Sales: China
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: China
Bus OEM Sales Performance: China
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

India

Market Outlook: India
Quarterly Bus Sales: India
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: India
Bus OEM Sales Performance: India
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Latin America

Market Outlook: Latin America
Quarterly Bus Sales: Latin America
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: Latin America
Bus OEM Sales Performance: Latin America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Moving Toward Clean and Zero-emission Transportation
Growth Opportunity 2: Developing ADAS Features and Level 4 Autonomy
Growth Opportunity 3: Reducing TCO to Expedite the Adoption of Alternative Powertrains