电动车成长放缓对汽车产业的影响：全球（2025 年）

汽车製造商正在重新评估他们的策略，削减对电动车的投资，并转向混合动力汽车和内燃机动力传动系统。

本研究全面概述了全球电池式电动车（BEV）市场成长放缓的情况，重点关注2020年至2024年的趋势。它深入分析了BEV销售成长放缓的原因，并着重指出产量与实际车辆交付量之间差距的扩大。

该报告深入分析了市场动能的转变，并对比了汽车製造商在 2020 年至 2022 年初期高速增长期与 2022 年至 2024 年随后停滞期的表现。报告也检验了几个重要电池生产计划的取消或暂停，凸显了投资意愿的减弱。

本分析涵盖了包括欧洲、北美和中国在内的主要市场的区域纯电动车发展趋势，并探讨了产品发布延迟、零排放车辆（ZEV）法规修订以及监管不确定性带来的更广泛影响。透过对汽车製造商的详细案例研究，本分析揭示了旨在降低市场风险的策略转变、扩张计划的暂停以及蓝图的调整。

最后，该研究概述了预示復苏的新兴趋势，并利用波特五力分析框架对不断变化的产业动态进行了前瞻性的策略解读，从而得出结构化的展望。

分析范围

• 本研究重点关注 2024 年至 2031 年期间，并概述了全球电池式电动车(BEV) 市场成长放缓的情况。
• 我们分析了销售成长放缓、产量与实际车辆销售之间差距扩大等问题，并将汽车製造商过去几年的业绩与其当前状况进行了比较。
• 该报告还研究了主要电池生产设施取消和关闭的连锁反应、欧洲、北美和中国的区域电动车市场趋势、产品发布延迟以及修订后的零排放车辆 (ZEV) 法规。
• 透过对汽车製造商的案例研究，我们重点介绍了他们为应对不利的市场环境而采取的策略转变和蓝图。
• 报告也探讨了復苏趋势，并运用波特五力模型来解释不断变化的产业动态。

三大战略挑战对电动车产业的影响

竞争加剧

• 原因：
  • 电动车市场在这个价格分布已经饱和，尤其是随着新旧汽车製造商竞相进入市场，以及需求放缓，竞争日益激烈。
  • 成熟市场消费者购买信心的放缓导致库存过剩，生产与销售之间的差距扩大，进一步加剧了在商品化日益加剧的情况下进行差异化的必要性。
• 弗罗斯特的观点：
  • 预计在 2025 年至 2027 年间，中型电动车市场将面临最大的竞争压力，因为供应过剩、补贴削减以及消费者信心波动等因素迭加在一起。
  • 2026 年至 2030 年间，区域政策，例如修订后的零排放车辆 (ZEV) 法规和基于关税的保护主义政策（例如美国和欧盟的政策），可能会塑造区域竞争格局，并导致贸易主导的电动车市场碎片化。

变革性大趋势

• 背景：
  • 政府的脱碳政策、净零排放目标和 ESG 合规性迫使汽车製造商不仅关注车辆本身，还要关注从购买绿色电池到回收报废车辆的综合价值链。
  • 电气化不再是一个独立的趋势；它已融入软体定义车辆、人工智慧驱动的个人化和出行即服务 (MaaS) 平台的融合之中。
• 弗罗斯特的观点：
  • 2025 年至 2028 年间，汽车製造商将面临越来越大的压力，需要使其产品战略与国家清洁能源政策和智慧城市交通计画保持一致，尤其是在欧盟和亚洲部分地区。
  • 到 2035 年，将人工智慧主导的汽车等更广泛的大趋势纳入策略规划的汽车製造商将在製造业方面获得长期优势，从人工智慧主导的汽车个性化到传统汽车製造。

地缘政治动盪

• 原因：
  • 对中国电池原料和电动车零件日益增长的依赖正在加速美国、欧盟和日本的战略转移，影响全球汽车製造商的生产计画和成本结构。
  • 关税上调（包括美国计划于 2025 年对中国製造的电动车及零件提高关税）和报復性措施正在重新定义进出口动态，并推动整车製造商走向本地化製造模式。
• 弗罗斯特的观点：
  • 2025 年至 2027 年间，汽车製造商需要调整其全球筹资策略，以最大限度地降低关税风险，并确保符合美国和欧盟推出的在地采购要求。
  • 2027 年至 2030 年间，一系列由政策主导的投资（例如美国的《通货膨胀控制法案》(IRA)、欧盟的《关键原材料法案》）将加速电池製造的在地化，但也可能导致全球结构的进一步碎片化。

主要竞争对手

• 世界
  • Tesla, Inc.
  • BYD Company Limited
  • Volkswagen Group
  • Hyundai Motor Group
  • Stellantis NV
• 北美洲
  • Rivian Automotive, Inc.
  • Lucid Motors
  • Chevrolet
  • Cadillac
  • Ford Motor Company
  • GMC
  • Fisker Inc.
  • Ram Trucks
  • Canoo Inc.
  • Jeep
• 欧洲
  • Renault Group
  • Peugeot
  • Opel Automobile GmbH
  • MINI
  • Volvo Group
  • Skoda
  • Dacia
  • Cupra
  • Citroen
  • Smart Automobile
  • Mercedes-Benz Group AG
  • Volvo Car Corporation
• 中国
  • GAC Aion New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd
  • SAIC Motor Corporation Limited
  • China FAW Group Corporation
  • Chery Automobile Co., Ltd
  • Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
  • NIO Inc.
  • Xpeng Inc.
  • Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Seres Group Co., Ltd.

目录

调查范围

战略要务

• 为什么成长变得越来越困难
• 策略要务
• 三大策略要务对电动车产业的影响

生态系统

• 主要竞争对手

成长驱动因素

• 衝击驱动
• 衝击约束装置
• 重点总结

全球纯电动汽车销售、生产和产品发布趋势

• 全球纯电动车市场成长
• 全球电动车产量与销售成长比较
• 2022-2024 年十大 OEM 效能提升
• 传统OEM车型发布及全国市场渗透率
• 电池製造公告和现状

欧洲电动车市场表现

• 电动车发展势头概览
• 电动汽车补贴削减时间表
• 零排放车辆义务的变更
• 产品发布延迟
• 重点总结

电动车市场表现：北美

• 电动车发展势头概览
• 电动汽车补贴削减时间表
• 零排放车辆义务的变更
• 产品发布延迟
• 重点总结

中国电动车市场表现

• 电动车发展势头概览
• 2022年至2024年十大纯电动汽车製造商的业绩
• 取消电动车奖励，2023-2025年
• 产品发布延迟
• 重点总结

汽车製造商电动车计划中的策略和投资重组

• 全球汽车製造商削减或取消电动车投资
• 原始设备製造商（OEM）对混合动力汽车的研发越来越感兴趣。
• 汽车製造商应对电动车发展放缓的策略
• 案例研究：本田在全球电动车市场放缓中的应对力

推动电动车市场从放缓中復苏的趋势

• 技术采纳曲线上的电动车復苏趋势
• 趋势一：价格亲民的纯电动车
• 趋势二：汽车製造商的平台整合
• 趋势三：电池技术标准化
• 结论：波特五力分析

发展机会

• 成长机会1：推出价格亲民的大众市场电动车

下一步

Automakers Realign Strategy due to EV Investment Cuts and a Shift Toward Hybrid and ICE Powertrains

This study presents a comprehensive overview of the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) market slowdown, with a particular emphasis on developments between 2020 and 2024. It thoroughly examines the deceleration in BEV sales growth, highlighting the growing disparity between production volumes and actual vehicle deliveries.

The report contrasts automaker performance during the early high-growth phase from 2020 to 2022 with the subsequent stagnation observed between 2022 and 2024, offering insights into how the market momentum shifted. Additionally, it examines the cancellation and suspension of several high-profile battery production projects, underscoring the weakening investment sentiment.

The analysis covers regional BEV market trends across key markets, including Europe, North America, and China, while exploring the broader implications of postponed product launches, revisions to zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, and regulatory uncertainties. Through detailed case studies of automakers, the report identifies strategic reversals, paused expansion plans, and revised roadmaps aimed at mitigating market risks.

Finally, the study outlines emerging recovery signals and concludes with a forward-looking strategic interpretation of shifting industry dynamics, leveraging Porter's Five Forces framework for a structured outlook.

Scope of Analysis

• This study provides an overview of the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) market slowdown, focusing on the period from 2024 to 2031.
• It analyzes the deceleration in sales growth, the widening gap between production and actual vehicle sales, and contrasts automaker performance over the past few years with current conditions.
• The report further investigates the cancellation and suspension of major battery production facilities; regional EV market trends in Europe, North America, and China; and the cascading effects of delayed product launches and revisions in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates.
• Through automaker case studies, the study highlights strategic reversals and revised roadmaps that automakers have adopted in response to market headwinds.
• The study also discusses recovery trends and concludes with an interpretation of the evolving industry dynamics using Porter's Five Forces framework.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Vehicle Industry

Competitive Intensity

• Why:
  • The EV market is experiencing a saturation of models across similar price bands, particularly from emerging players and legacy automakers rushing to establish a presence, which is intensifying competition amid slowing demand.
  • The slowing consumer uptake in mature markets has led to excess inventory, widening the gap between production and actual sales, and intensifying pressure to differentiate amid increasing commoditization.
• Frost Perspective:
  • From 2025 to 2027, the competitive pressure is expected to be most acute in the mid-size EV segment, where oversupply will coincide with subsidy reductions and wavering consumer confidence.
  • Between 2026 and 2030, regional policies such as revised ZEV mandates and tariff-based protections (e.g., in the United States and European Union [EU]) will shape localized competitive battlegrounds and potentially trigger trade-driven segmentation of EV markets.

Transformative Megatrends

• Why:
  • Government decarbonization policies, net-zero targets, and ESG compliance are compelling OEMs to expand their focus beyond vehicles and toward integrated value chains, from green battery sourcing to end-of-life vehicle recycling.
  • Electrification is no longer a standalone trend. Instead, it is embedded within the convergence of software-defined vehicles, AI-driven personalization, and mobility-as-a-service platforms.
• Frost Perspective:
  • From 2025 to 2028, automakers are expected to face mounting pressure to align their product strategies with national clean energy agendas and smart city mobility frameworks, particularly in the EU and parts of Asia.
  • OEMs that integrate broader megatrends into their strategic planning-such as AI-led vehicles-will gain long-term advantages in manufacturing to AI-led vehicle personalization, as well as traditional vehicle manufacturing by 2035.

Geopolitical Chaos

• Why:
  • The growing dependence on China for battery raw materials and EV components has triggered strategic decoupling efforts in the United States, the EU, and Japan, affecting production planning and cost structures for global automakers.
  • Tariff hikes (2025 U.S. tariff increase on Chinese EVs and parts) and retaliatory measures are redefining export-import dynamics and pushing OEMs toward regionalized manufacturing models.
• Frost Perspective:
  • Between 2025 and 2027, automakers will need to redesign their global sourcing strategies to minimize tariff exposure and ensure compliance with emerging local content requirements in the United States and EU.
  • From 2027 to 2030, a wave of policy-driven investment (e.g., the Inflation Reduction Act [IRA] in the United States, the Critical Raw Materials Act in the EU) will accelerate the localization of battery manufacturing, but may also further fragment global structures.

Key Competitors

• Global
  • Tesla, Inc.
  • BYD Company Limited
  • Volkswagen Group
  • Hyundai Motor Group
  • Stellantis N.V.
• North America
  • Rivian Automotive, Inc.
  • Lucid Motors
  • Chevrolet
  • Cadillac
  • Ford Motor Company
  • GMC
  • Fisker Inc.
  • Ram Trucks
  • Canoo Inc.
  • Jeep
• Europe
  • Renault Group
  • Peugeot
  • Opel Automobile GmbH
  • MINI
  • Volvo Group
  • Skoda
  • Dacia
  • Cupra
  • Citroen
  • Smart Automobile
  • Mercedes-Benz Group AG
  • Volvo Car Corporation
• China
  • GAC Aion New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd
  • SAIC Motor Corporation Limited
  • China FAW Group Corporation
  • Chery Automobile Co., Ltd
  • Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
  • NIO Inc.
  • Xpeng Inc.
  • Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Seres Group Co., Ltd.

Table of Contents

Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis
• Vehicle Segmentation

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Vehicle Industry

Ecosystem

• Key Competitors

Growth Generator

• Impact Drivers
• Impact Restraints
• Key Takeaways

Global Trends in BEV Sales, Production, and Product Launches

• Global BEV Market Growth
• Global EV Production vs Sales Growth Comparison
• Top 10 OEM Performance, 2022-2024
• Legacy OEM Model Launches and Country Penetration
• Battery Manufacturing Announcements Vs Current Status

EV Market Performance: Europe

• EV Momentum Overview
• Timeline of EV Subsidy Reductions
• Changes in ZEV Mandates
• Delays in Product Launches
• Key Takeaways

EV Market Performance: North America

• EV Momentum Overview
• Timeline of EV Subsidy Reductions
• Changes in ZEV Mandates
• Delays in Product Launches
• Key Takeaways

EV Market Performance: China

• EV Momentum Overview
• Top 10 BEV Automaker Performance, 2022-2024
• Withdrawal of EV Incentives, 2023-2025
• Delays in Product Launches
• Key Takeaways

Automakers' Strategy and Investment Realignment in EV Plans

• Global Automakers Reduce/Cancel EV Investments
• OEMs Developing Interest in Hybrid Vehicle Development
• Automakers's Reactive Strategies Toward the EV Slowdown
• Case Study: Honda's Reactive Shift Amid Global EV Slowdown

Trends Driving Recovery from the EV Market Slowdown

• EV Recovery Trends Across the Technology Adoption Curve
• Trend 1: Affordable BEVs
• Trend 2: Platform Consolidation by Automakers
• Trend 3: Battery Technology Standardization
• Conclusions: Porter's Five Forces Framework

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Launch Affordable EVs for the Mass Market

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Action Items & Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer