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市场调查报告书
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1892075

对川普2.0政策及其对非公路设备产业潜在影响的策略分析

Strategic Analysis of Trump 2.0 Policies and Their Potential Impact on the Off-Highway Equipment Industry
出版日期: | 出版商: Frost & Sullivan | 英文 71 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内

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简介目录

预计对进口非公路设备征收的关税将使中型和重型设备的製造商建议零售价将上涨 3% 至 6%。

美国已对墨西哥和加拿大的进口商品加征25%的关税。这两个市场都与美国汽车市场紧密相连。大多数美国品牌都依赖墨西哥和加拿大进行采购和生产。加上报復性关税，短期内北美地区的销售和通膨可能会受到显着影响。企业应优先考虑对供应链和库存管理进行即时回应，以最大限度地降低影响。尤其是在像美国这样的大型市场，在地采购和生产能力如今已成为必需，而不仅仅是一种选择。

此外，汽车、钢铁和铝製品製造商有望受益于人工智慧的快速普及，人工智慧将透过任务自动化和提高效率来减少系统内的浪费。人工智慧也将帮助汽车製造商加快自动驾驶汽车计划，从而使美国製造商在该领域获得竞争优势。

然而，美国政府对内燃机汽车（ICE）而非电动车的偏好将迫使汽车製造商调整其在美国的汽车产品组合。从中长期来看，美国非公路设备相关人员预计将失去其与电动车（EV）相关的技术能力以及在全球市场上的相关竞争优势。

分析范围

  • 2025 年以后，全球贸易和经济成长动能将是川普政府第二任期内美国政治、贸易和政策发展复杂组合的结果。
  • 2024年全球实质GDP成长率为3.2%，预计2028年将维持3.2%-3.3%的年增长率，新兴市场经济体预计将持续引领经济成长。
  • 我们的基准情境考虑了川普总统对所有来自墨西哥和加拿大的进口商品征收 25% 的关税，对来自中国的进口商品征收 10% 的关税，以及墨西哥和加拿大相应的报復性关税。
  • 2025年至2028年，基本案例预测对GDP的影响有限，亚洲主要汽车製造商将支撑全球需求和经济成长。然而，在保守情境下，旷日持久且不利的贸易战可能导致2028年全球GDP成长率下降1.5%，推动全球通膨率超过6.0%，并引发美国、加拿大、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、德国和韩国等经济体持续数季的景气衰退。

三大策略挑战对非公路设备产业的影响。

地缘政治动盪

原因

美国对来自墨西哥和加拿大的进口商品征收25%的关税。

这两个市场与美国汽车市场密切相关，大多数美国品牌都依赖墨西哥和加拿大进行采购和生产。

弗罗斯特的观点

再加上报復性关税，短期内对北美地区的销售量和通货膨胀可能会产生重大影响。

企业应优先考虑供应链和库存管理中的即时回应，以最大限度地减少衝击。

在地采购和生产能力不仅是潜在选择，而且是一种必然选择，尤其是在像美国这样的大市场。

颠覆性技术

原因

总统已颁布一项命令，旨在确立在人工智慧领域的统治地位，并加强在数位金融领域的领导地位。

美国科技公司正在迅速扩展其在人工智慧及相关基础设施方面的能力。

弗罗斯特的观点

汽车、钢铁和铝製品製造商预计将受益于人工智慧的快速普及，利用人工智慧实现任务自动化并提高效率，从而减少系统中的浪费。

人工智慧还将使汽车製造商能够加快自动驾驶汽车的开发计划，从而使美国汽车製造商在该领域获得竞争优势。

内部挑战

原因

川普政府于 2025 年 12 月 31 日逐步取消了 7,500 美元的联邦电动车税额扣抵，从而消除了电池式电动车和插电式混合动力汽车的一个关键需求驱动因素。

为了弥补燃油税收入的损失，政府还将电动和混合动力汽车的年度车辆登记附加费提高了 200 至 400 美元。

弗罗斯特的观点

透过行政命令和政策，美国政府似乎正在优先发展内燃机汽车（ICE）而不是电动车，这将迫使汽车製造商重新调整其在美国的汽车产品组合。

从中长期来看，美国非公路用车相关人员预计将在全球市场失去电动车能力和相关的竞争优势。

成长驱动力

  • 亚洲汽车製造商—受益于友好关係：在无与伦比的成本竞争力驱动下，亚洲经济巨头印度和东协将在建立牢固友好关係的机会中保持韧性。强劲的国内经济预计仍将是关键的成长要素。
  • 高科技与石化燃料经济：半导体和人工智慧在中期内仍将是投资重点。包括核准在美国联邦土地上进行油气开发在内的重大监管变革，将推动国内油气产业的机会。
  • 美国税制改革及宽鬆利率：包括提案将企业所得税率从21%降至15%在内的美国税制改革，将鼓励私人投资，同时减轻利息负担并提振消费支出。美国经济的韧性将显着促进全球经济成长，尤其是在开发中国家市场和新兴市场。

成长抑制因素

  • 永续性投资放缓：美国退出《巴黎协定》以及对开发中国家市场和新兴市场的财政和技术援助承诺可能冻结，这可能会在中期内抑制这些地区的永续性和清洁能源的采用和投资。
  • 贸易战：本土化战略的推进引发了关税争端和保护主义政策，政治领导人更注重扶持国内产业而非促进全球伙伴关係。旷日持久的贸易争端将高成本，并减缓贸易成长。

目录

调查范围

  • 分析范围

战略要务

  • 为什么成长变得越来越困难
  • The Strategic Imperative 8
  • 非公路设备产业三大策略要务影响

成长环境

  • 重点
  • 成长驱动因素
  • 成长限制因素
  • 川普政府第二阶段对非公路设备产业的影响分析
  • 国产产品与进口产品：非公路设备原始设备製造商
  • 进口零件OEM地图
  • 非公路车辆製造业贸易流入
  • 主要汽车製造商对美国关税的回应
  • 关税对厂商建议零售价的影响：主要原始设备製造商和车型

川普2.0政策概述及其对宏观经济的影响

  • 美国总统上任百日内颁布的行政命令
  • 唐纳德·特朗普总统颁布的主要行政命令清单
  • 第一部：川普2.0关税政策 1/3
  • 第一部：川普2.0关税政策 2/3
  • 第一部：川普2.0关税政策 3/3

对影响汽车产业的政策进行分析

  • 可能影响非公路设备产业的行政命令

关税对墨西哥非公路设备产业的影响。

  • 非公路设备及零件进口概览（墨西哥至美国）
  • 墨西哥製造的主要非公路设备零件
  • 墨西哥主要OEM厂商和一级供应商工厂概览
  • 关税对墨西哥非公路设备产业的影响：主要结论

关税对加拿大非公路设备产业的影响。

  • 非公路设备及零件进口概览：加拿大至美国
  • 加拿大主要OEM厂商和一级供应商工厂概览
  • 加拿大製造的主要非公路设备零件
  • 关税对加拿大非公路设备产业的影响：主要结论

关税对中国非公路用设备产业的影响

  • 中国向美国进口非公路用设备及零件概况
  • 中国主要OEM厂商及一级供应商工厂概况
  • 中国製造的主要非公路用设备零件
  • 关税对中国非公路用机械产业的影响：主要结论

关税对德国非公路设备产业的影响。

  • 非公路设备及零件进口概览（德国至美国）
  • 德国主要OEM厂商及一级供应商工厂概览
  • 德国製造的关键非公路用设备零件
  • 关税对德国非公路用设备产业的影响：主要结论

关税对日本非公路设备产业的影响

  • 日本向美国进口非公路用设备及零件概况
  • 日本主要OEM厂商及一级供应商工厂概览
  • 日本製造的主要非公路用设备零件
  • 关税对日本非公路用机械产业的影响：主要结论

成长机会的考量

  • 成长机会1：重组供应链
  • 成长机会二：保护特定产品线
  • 成长机会3：注重创新以降低成本

附录与后续步骤

  • 成长机会带来的益处和影响
  • 下一步
  • 附件清单
  • 免责声明
简介目录
Product Code: KBEE-42

The Tariff on Imported Off-highway Equipment is Expected to Raise the MSRP on Medium- and Large-sized Equipment by 3%-6%

The United States has levied 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada-2 markets closely connected to the US auto market. Most brands in the United States depend on Mexico and Canada for sourcing and production. Coupled with retaliatory tariffs, near-term impacts to North American volumes and inflation can be sizable. Firms should prioritize real-time supply chain and inventory management to curtail shocks. Local sourcing and production capabilities are a need rather than a potential option, especially in large markets such as the United States.

In addition, auto, steel, and aluminum producers are expected to benefit from the rapid proliferation of AI, leveraging it to cut waste in their systems by automating tasks and increasing efficiency. AI will also enable automakers to rapidly advance their autonomous vehicle projects, leading to US automakers gaining a competitive advantage in this space.

However, the US government seems to prioritize ICE vehicles over electric ones, which will force automakers to realign their vehicle portfolios for the country. In the medium term, US off-highway equipment stakeholders are expected to lose their EV capabilities and related competitive advantages in the global market.

Scope of Analysis

  • Starting 2025, the global trade and economic growth momentum will be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States.
  • Following a 3.2% real GDP growth in 2024, the world economy is likely to maintain a 3.2%-3.3% annual growth momentum through 2028, with emerging markets maintaining their leaderboard positions in terms of economic growth.
  • In our baseline, President Trump's 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports are considered, along with proportional retaliatory tariffs from Mexico and Canada.
  • Between 2025 and 2028, within the base case, the impact on GDP will remain muted, with key Asian OEMs buoying global demand and economic growth. However, in the conservative scenario, adverse and protracted trade wars can potentially shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028, push global inflation beyond 6.0%, and induce multi-quarter recessions in economies such as the United States, Canada, Colombia, Mexico, Germany, and South Korea.

The Impact of Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Off-Highway Equipment Industry

Geopolitical Chaos

Why

The United States has levied 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada-

2 markets closely connected to the US auto market. Most brands in the United States depend on Mexico and Canada for sourcing and production.

Frost Perspective

Coupled with retaliatory tariffs, near-term impacts to North American volumes and inflation can be sizable.

Firms should prioritize real-time supply chain and inventory management to curtail shocks.

Local sourcing and production capabilities are a need rather than a potential option, especially in large markets such as the United States.

Disruptive Technologies

Why

Executive orders have been passed that seek to remove barriers to AI domination and strengthen leadership in digital finance.

Technology firms in the United States have been rapidly scaling up their capabilities around AI and the associated infrastructure.

Frost Perspective

Auto, steel, and aluminum producers are expected to benefit from the rapid proliferation of AI, leveraging it to cut waste in their systems by automating tasks and increasing efficiency.

AI will also enable automakers to rapidly advance their autonomous vehicle projects, leading to US automakers gaining a competitive advantage in this space.

Internal Challenges

Why

The Trump presidency phased out the $7,500 federal EV tax credit after 31 December 2025, removing a key demand incentive for battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

The government also raised annual vehicle registration surcharges for EVs and hybrids by $200-$400 to offset lost fuel tax revenues.

Frost Perspective

Through its executive orders and policies, the US government seems to prioritize ICE vehicles over electric ones, which will force automakers to realign their vehicle portfolios for the country.

In the medium term, US off-highway stakeholders are expected to lose their EV capabilities and related competitive advantages in the global market.

Growth Drivers

  • Asian OEMs-Beneficiaries of Friendship: Asian behemoths, India and ASEAN, will remain resilient amid strong friendship opportunities given their unmatched cost-competitiveness. Strong domestic economies will remain an important driver.
  • High-tech and Fossil Fuel Economy: Semiconductors and AI will remain in the fiscal support spotlight through the medium term. Significant regulatory changes, including approvals for the development of oil and gas (O&G) on federal lands in the United States, will boost O&G opportunities in the country.
  • Sweeping US Tax Reforms and Easing Interest Rates: US tax reforms (e.g., the proposal to slash corporate income tax to 15% from 21%) will spur private investments while easing interest rate burdens and supporting consumer spending. A resilient US economy will largely benefit global growth momentum, especially in developing and emerging markets.

Growth Restraints

  • Decelerating Sustainability Investments: The US exit from the Paris Agreement and the likely freeze of financial and technological support commitments to developing and emerging markets will curtail sustainability and clean energy adoption and investments in these locations during the medium term.
  • Trade Wars: The localization push has led to tariff disputes and protectionist policies, with political leaders supporting domestic industries rather than fostering global partnerships. Prolonged trade conflicts will slow trade growth as businesses and consumers deal with high costs.

Table of Contents

Research Scope

  • Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

  • Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8
  • The Impact of Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Off-Highway Equipment Industry

Growth Environment

  • Key Takeaways
  • Growth Drivers
  • Growth Restraints
  • Trump 2.0 Impact Analysis on the Off-Highway Equipment Industry
  • Domestic Production Versus Imports Exposure: Off-Highway Equipment OEMs
  • OEM Map of Imported Components
  • Off-Highway Manufacturing Sector's Trade In-Flow
  • Major OEMs' Reactions to US Tariffs
  • Tariff Impact on MSRP: Key OEMs and Equipment Types

Overview of Trump 2.0 Policies and Their Macroeconomic Impact

  • Executive Orders Issued by US Presidents in the First 100 Days
  • List of Key Executive Orders Issued by Donald Trump
  • Section 1: Trump 2.0 Tariff Policy 1/3
  • Section 1: Trump 2.0 Tariff Policy 2/3
  • Section 1: Trump 2.0 Tariff Policy 3/3

Analysis of Policies Impacting the Automotive Industry

  • Executive Orders With Possible Implications for the Off-Highway Equipment Industry

Tariff Impact on the Mexican Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, Mexico to the United States
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in Mexico
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in Mexico
  • Tariff Impact on the Mexican Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Tariff Impact on the Canadian Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, Canada to the United States
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in Canada
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in Canada
  • Tariff Impact on the Canadian Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Tariff Impact on the Chinese Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, China to the United States
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in China
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in China
  • Tariff Impact on the Chinese Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Tariff Impact on the German Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, Germany to the United States
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in Germany
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in Germany
  • Tariff Impact on the German Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Tariff Impact on the Japanese Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, Japan to the United States
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in Japan
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in Japan
  • Tariff Impact on the Japanese Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity Universe

  • Growth Opportunity 1: Recalibrating the Supply Chain
  • Growth Opportunity 2: Protecting Select Product Lines
  • Growth Opportunity 3: Focusing on Innovation to Save Costs

Appendix & Next Steps

  • Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
  • Next Steps
  • List of Exhibits
  • Legal Disclaimer