2040 年生物製药的未来

人工智慧 (AI) 的应用将为生物製药价值链带来变革性成长。

生物製药产业在过去几十年中不断发展演变。本研究分析了2040年将影响生物製药产业未来发展的十大趋势。

生物製药的未来将由人工智慧和机器学习（尤其是生成式人工智慧）的创新，以及转化医学和合成生物学的进步所驱动。未来生物製剂的临床开发将专注于个人化医疗，并在药物开发过程中更多地采用分散式临床试验。在生物製剂生产方面，药物递送技术的新方法和进步将彻底改变药物的给药方式。这将改善药物传递的治疗效果，最终带来更好的治疗结果。

随着企业推行绿色环保措施和永续原料采购以减少对环境的影响，製造业和供应链的永续性变得越来越重要。

在商业方面，数位疗法和无人机配送等新兴技术将发挥日益重要的作用。就不断扩张的生物製药市场而言，新兴市场，尤其是中国，预计将在未来几年内成为生物製药研发和商业化的关键区域，其重要性日益凸显。生物製药监管环境将持续发展以适应科学进步，美国FDA和EMA等监管机构将加强与生物製药公司的合作，以确保患者能够及时获得挽救生命的治疗。未来几年，主要市场中基于价值的生物製剂报销体系将更加突出。

大型科技公司正透过人工智慧驱动的蛋白质预测、分子筛检和标靶辨识平台，彻底革新药物发现领域。云端原生模拟和新兴的量子运算正在缩短临床前开发週期，而研发即服务（R&DaaS）模式则使生物製药公司无需大量内部投资即可使用这些工具。

目录

调查范围

• 分析范围

策略要务

• 为什么成长变得越来越困难
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• 三大策略要务对生物製药产业的影响

成长机会分析

• 成长驱动因素
• 成长抑制因素
• 趋势一：人工智慧主导地位
• 人工智慧对生物製药产业的影响：2040 年时间表
• 趋势二：精准医疗
• 药物基因体学和治疗诊断学：2040 年发展时间表
• 趋势三：产品系列策略的转变
• 从投资组合管理到产品引擎
• 趋势四：新模式的整合
• 排名前 20 名的生物製药研发管线公司：将重点转向生物製剂和新兴疗法
• 从模态融合到整合产品引擎
• 趋势五：智慧工厂投资
• 製造业转型：2040 年时间表
• 趋势六：不断变化的监管
• 监理发展：2040 年时间表
• 趋势七：供应链转型
• 供应链转型：2040 年时间表
• 趋势八：新兴市场
• 新兴市场的角色：2040 年时间表
• 趋势九：数据与数位转型
• 数据策略与数位化：2040 年时间表
• 趋势10：大型科技公司成为生物製药领域的合作协调者
• 大型科技颠覆：2040 年前的时间表

成长机会领域

• 成长机会 1：抗体药物偶联物和放射性配体供应生态系统
• 成长机会 2：微批量个人化治疗基础设施
• 成长机会 3：基于人工智慧的临床开发平台
• 成长机会 4：基于 ESG 的差异化製造和绿色生物製程

下一步

• 成长机会带来的益处和影响
• 下一步
• 免责声明

Adoption of Artificial Intelligence Is Driving Transformational Growth Across the Biopharma Value Chain

The biopharma industry has been evolving over the past few decades. This study analyses the top ten trends that will impact the future of the biopharma industry through 2040.

The future of biopharma will be driven by innovation in AI and ML, particularly generative AI, and by advancements in translational medicine and synthetic biology. Future clinical development of biologics will focus on personalized medicine and will leverage more decentralized clinical trials in the drug development process. In biologics manufacturing, novel approaches and advancements in drug delivery will transform how medications are administered. This will improve therapeutic outcomes in drug delivery and transform the way medications are administered, thereby improving therapeutic outcomes.

Sustainability in manufacturing and supply chain will become more important as companies increasingly focus on reducing their environmental footprint by adopting green practices and sustainably sourcing raw materials.

On the commercial side, new age technologies (such as digital therapeutics and drone delivery) will play an increasingly greater role. In terms of biopharma market expansion, emerging markets will gain importance - especially China, which will become an important region for biopharma R&D to commercialization in the coming years. The biopharma regulatory landscape will continue to evolve to keep pace with scientific advancements, while agencies such as the US FDA and EMA will collaborate more with biopharmaceutical companies to ensure patients have timely access to life-saving therapies. Value-based reimbursement will gain greater prominence in the coming years for biologics in major markets.

Big tech will revolutionize drug discovery through AI-driven platforms for protein prediction, molecular screening, and target identification. Cloud-native simulations and emerging quantum computing will accelerate preclinical timelines, while R&D-as-a-service models will give biopharma access to these tools without heavy in-house investment.

Table of Contents

Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Biopharma Industry

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Trend 1: The AI Advantage
• AI Impact on Biopharma: Timeline to 2040
• Trend 2: Precision Medicine
• Pharmacogenomics and Theranostics: Timeline to 2040
• Trend 3: Shifts in Product Portfolio Strategy
• Portfolio Management to Product Engine
• Trend 4: Convergence of Novel Modalities
• Top 20 Biopharma Pipeline Gravity Shifting Towards Biologics and Emerging Modalities
• Converging Modalities to Integrated Product Engines
• Trend 5: Smart Factory Investments
• Manufacturing Transformation: Timeline to 2040
• Trend 6: Regulatory Evolution
• Regulatory Developments: Timeline to 2040
• Trend 7: Supply Chain Transformation
• Supply Chain Transformation: Timeline to 2040
• Trend 8: Emerging Markets
• Emerging Markets Role: Timeline to 2040
• Trend 9: Data and Digital Transformation
• Data Strategy and Digitalization: Timeline to 2040
• Trend 10: Big Tech is Becoming a Co-Orchestrator in Biopharma
• Big Tech Disruption: Timeline to 2040

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: ADC & Radioligand Supply Ecosystems
• Growth Opportunity 2: Micro-Batch Personalized Therapy Infrastructure
• Growth Opportunity 3: AI-Augmented Clinical Development Platforms
• Growth Opportunity 4: ESG-Differentiated Manufacturing & Green Bioprocessing

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• Legal Disclaimer

Author: Anantharaman Viswanathan