美国电力市场远期曲线检验

报告摘要

虽然现货电力市场可能会受到需求过剩、机组意外停电和意外天气事件等事件的驱动，但远期市场更像是一个虚无缥缈的实体。随着时间的发展，发电和输电中断讯息变得稀少。天然气远期定价和现货电力市场最近发生的事情实际上是这些市场新讯息的两个一致来源。因此，这些功率曲线中通常存在一定量的风险溢价，尤其是在冬季和夏季。

本报告提供美国的电力市场相关调查分析，量化远期市场对全国各种功率曲线施加了多少风险溢价。还研究了过去一年中夏季和冬季月份的远期曲线是如何演变的。具体来说，探讨了天然气价格与远期电力价格的比较，以及现货市场对曲线产生的影响类型。

Report Summary:

While the spot power market can be driven by events like overperforming demand, unplanned unit outages and unexpected weather events, the forward market is more of an ethereal entity. Generation and transmission outage information becomes sparse as time progresses. Where natural gas forwards are priced and recent happenings in spot power markets are really the two consistent sources of new information for these markets. As a result, there is typically some amount of risk premium built into these power curves, particularly over winter and summer months. This insight is an attempt to quantify how much risk premium the forward market has put on various power curves from across the country. We also examine how the forward curves have evolved over the past year for prompt summer and prompt winter months. Specifically, the research explores how the price of natural gas compares to forward power prices, and what types of impact the spot markets have had on the curves.