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市场调查报告书
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1939605

非洲汽车市场：市场占有率分析、产业趋势与统计、成长预测（2026-2031年）

Africa Automotive - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 100 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3个工作天内

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简介目录

预计到 2026 年，非洲汽车市场价值将达到 226.3 亿美元，高于 2025 年的 215.5 亿美元，预计到 2031 年将达到 289.3 亿美元。

预计2026年至2031年年复合成长率（CAGR）为5.03%。

非洲汽车市场-IMG1

非洲汽车市场需求蓬勃发展，这主要得益于都市区中产阶级消费能力的提升、中国对CKD/SKD（散件组装/半散件组装）投资的加速以及非洲大陆自由贸易协定（AfCFTA）下的关税自由化。数位汇款平台将海外韩国人的资金用于购车、叫车服务和最后一公里配送车队的扩张，进一步扩大了潜在市场。区域原始设备製造商（OEM）正受益于优先考虑本地增值的政策奖励。同时，矿业公司在铜带地区开展的电动皮卡试验计画正在开闢一个独特的商业市场。然而，物流瓶颈、货币波动以及大量灰色市场二手车的涌入仍然是可能减缓非洲汽车市场成长势头的重大阻力。

非洲汽车市场趋势与洞察

非洲都市区中产阶级汽车拥有量不断上升

汽车拥有量与收入成长密切相关，预计到2060年，非洲中产阶级人口将成长至11亿，这将进一步提升人们对个人出行的需求。潜在购车者纷纷涌向入门级和紧凑型乘用车，这些车型兼具经济性和都市区实用性。长期汽车贷款和订阅模式等金融创新降低了购车门槛，进一步强化了非洲汽车市场需求的上升趋势。

非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCFTA）下的关税削减将促进区域内贸易。

非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCFTA）将逐步取消90%商品的关税，大多数非最不发达国家（NDC）需在五年内遵守该规定。汽车製造商将受益于区域内原材料采购成本的降低，明确的原产地规则将鼓励本地增值并允许享受优惠关税。目前已有46个国家提交了让步方案，贸易自由化正在为全散件组装（CKD）业务带来实际的成本节约。非关税壁垒改革（包括海关程序数位化、标准统一和简化边境程序）预计将创造200亿美元的额外贸易额，直接惠及非洲汽车市场。

港口长期拥挤及内陆物流瓶颈

德班港和拉各斯港的车辆吞吐量位居全球最低之列，导致货物滞留时间和滞期费不断攀升。铁路利用率不足和老旧车辆正促使运输转向公路，而高昂的通行费和安全风险则推高了车辆的到岸成本。对于组装，零件到货不稳定阻碍了准时生产；对于出口商而言，货物延误损害了供应商的可靠性。除非正在进行的走廊建设和单一窗口海关係统能够带来可衡量的效率提升，否则物流摩擦将继续阻碍非洲汽车市场的发展。

细分市场分析

到2025年，乘用车将占非洲汽车市场的66.58%，反映出广大城市地区对个人出行的需求。然而，由于非洲大陆自由贸易协定（AfCFTA）的实施以及蓬勃发展的电子商务，货运量不断增长，推动了人们对厢式货车、皮卡和重型卡车的关注度提升，预计这些车型的复合年增长率将达到8.36%，超过乘用车。轻型商用车将受益于最后一公里配送业务的成长，而中型和重型卡车将沿着关税协调走廊运输区域间贸易货物。矿业公司正在快速试用电池电动自动卸货卡车，这表明它们有可能成为未来重型车辆的替代方案。

商用车组装正利用政府的激励政策，免除底盘和传动系统零件的进口关税，从而缩小与二手二手平行输入的价格差距。全球产能重新分配也至关重要，预计摩洛哥将在2024年以61.4万辆的产量超越南非，从而打造一个强大的供应商基础，这些供应商可以转型为货运平台。随着物流业者营运的标准化，车队更新周期正在缩短，维持了非洲汽车市场这一细分领域的成长动能。

到2025年，内燃机汽车仍将维持90.68%的市场份额，这主要得益于价格合理的燃油和完善的维护系统。然而，在新的汽车製造商（OEM）推出新车型以及卢安达、肯亚和埃及等国的财政激励措施的推动下，纯电动车（BEV）预计将以10.12%的复合年增长率增长。从日本进口二手二手将有助于消费者儘早熟悉电动驱动系统，而电动车零件的关税减免将降低商用车队的整体拥有成本。

在主要都会区以外，由于电网稳定性的限制，电动皮卡的普及速度较为缓慢。但在铜矿区，离网太阳能和电池储能中心已经投入使用，为电动皮卡提供动力。展望未来，随着电池成本的下降和充电基础设施的扩展，电动皮卡的普及速度将加快，内燃机汽车在非洲汽车市场的主导地位预计将逐渐减弱。

非洲汽车市场报告按车辆类型（乘用车和商用车）、动力类型（内燃机等）、最终用途（个人、车队租赁等）、销售管道（整车进口、散装/散件组装等）以及国家（南非、摩洛哥、阿尔及利亚、埃及、尼日利亚、加纳、肯亚和其他非洲国家）进行细分。市场预测以价值（美元）和销售（辆）为单位。

其他福利：

  • Excel格式的市场预测（ME）表
  • 3个月的分析师支持

目录

第一章 引言

  • 研究假设和市场定义
  • 调查范围

第二章调查方法

第三章执行摘要

第四章 市场情势

  • 市场概览
  • 市场驱动因素
    • 非洲都市区中产阶级汽车拥有量不断上升
    • 中国整车製造商（例如比亚迪、奇瑞）加大对CKD/SKD的投资
    • 非洲大陆自由贸易区（AFCFTA）关税削减促进区域内贸易
    • 扩大共乘与最后一公里配送车队
    • 透过金融科技汇款平台进行的海外侨民购车交易激增
    • 铜带国家矿业部门的电动车试验计画推动了对电动皮卡的需求。
  • 市场限制
    • 港口长期拥挤及内陆物流瓶颈
    • 汇率波动推高了CKD套件的进口成本。
    • 平行输入二手车涌入抑制了对新车的需求。
    • 西非ISO认证汽车用钢材轧延产能短缺
  • 价值/供应链分析
  • 监管环境
  • 科技展望（内燃机汽车、混合动力汽车、纯电动车、燃料电池电动车）
  • 波特五力模型
    • 供应商的议价能力
    • 买方和消费者的议价能力
    • 新进入者的威胁
    • 替代品的威胁
    • 竞争对手之间的竞争

第五章 市场规模及成长预测（金额：美元/数量：单位，2019-2030 年）

  • 按车辆类型
    • 搭乘用车
      • 掀背车
      • 轿车
      • SUV 与跨界车
      • MPV 及其他车型
    • 商用车辆
      • 轻型商用车（LCV）
      • 中型和大型卡车
      • 公车和长途客车
  • 依推进类型
    • 内燃机（ICE）
    • 混合动力电动车（HEV）
    • 电池式电动车（BEV）
    • 替代燃料（CNG/LPG、弹性燃料、燃料电池电动车）
  • 按最终用途
    • 个人所有
    • 车队租赁
    • 叫车/出行服务供应商
    • 对于政府和机构
  • 按销售管道
    • 整车组装（CBU）
    • 半散件/全散件组装（SKD/CKD）
    • 二手车进口
  • 按国家/地区
    • 南非
    • 摩洛哥
    • 阿尔及利亚
    • 埃及
    • 奈及利亚
    • 迦纳
    • 肯亚
    • 其他非洲地区

第六章 竞争情势

  • 市场集中度
  • 策略趋势
  • 市占率分析
  • 公司简介
    • Toyota Motor Corporation
    • Volkswagen AG
    • Groupe Renault
    • Hyundai Motor Company
    • Ford Motor Company
    • Daimler Truck AG
    • Volvo Group
    • Isuzu Motors Ltd
    • Tata Motors Ltd
    • Ashok Leyland
    • Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing Co.
    • Stellantis（Peugeot, Opel）
    • Nissan Motor Co.
    • Kia Corporation
    • BAIC Group
    • Chery Automobile Co.
    • BYD Auto
    • Geely Automobile Holdings
    • Great Wall Motor（Haval）
    • Guangzhou Automobile Group（GAC）

第七章 市场机会与未来展望

简介目录
Product Code: 55855

Africa automotive market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 22.63 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 21.55 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 28.93 billion, growing at 5.03% CAGR over 2026-2031.

Africa Automotive - Market - IMG1

Rising urban middle-class spending, accelerated Chinese CKD/SKD investments, and AfCFTA tariff liberalization collectively set a positive demand trajectory for the Africa automotive market . Digital remittance platforms channeling diaspora funds into vehicle purchases and ride-hailing and last-mile delivery fleet expansion further widen addressable volumes. Regional OEMs benefit from policy incentives prioritizing local value addition, while miners' pilot programs for electric pickups in the copper-belt introduce a specialist commercial niche. Logistics bottlenecks, currency volatility, and grey-market used-car inflows remain the critical headwinds that can temper growth momentum in the Africa automotive market.

Africa Automotive Market Trends and Insights

Rising Passenger-Car Ownership Among Africa's Urban Middle Class

Vehicle ownership closely tracks income gains, and Africa's middle class is projected to swell toward 1.1 billion people by 2060. Driving incremental demand for personal mobility. Aspirational buyers gravitate toward entry-level and compact passenger models that balance affordability with urban practicality. Financing innovations such as longer-tenor auto loans and subscription models improve affordability, reinforcing the upward demand cycle across the Africa automotive market.

AfCFTA Tariff Reductions Stimulating Intra-Regional Trade

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will phase out tariffs on 90% of goods, with most non-LDC nations obliged to comply within five years. Automotive OEMs stand to gain lower input costs on regional parts procurement, while clear rules of origin encourage local value addition that unlocks preferential tariffs. Forty-six countries have already submitted concession schedules, translating trade liberalization into tangible cost relief for CKD operations. Non-tariff barrier reforms-customs digitization, harmonized standards, and streamlined border procedures-are expected to release an extra USD 20 billion in trade value, a direct boon for the Africa automotive market.

Chronic Port Congestion and Inland Logistics Bottlenecks

Durban and Lagos ports rank among the world's slowest for automotive throughput, inflating dwell times and demurrage fees. Rail under-utilization and aging rolling stock shift traffic onto roads where high tolls and security risks push up landed vehicle costs. For CKD assemblers, inconsistent component arrivals disrupt just-in-time production, while exporters face missed sailing windows that erode supplier credibility. Unless ongoing corridor upgrades and single-window customs systems deliver measurable efficiencies, logistics friction will remain a drag on the Africa automotive market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Expansion of Ride-Hailing and Last-Mile Delivery Fleets
  2. Mining-Sector EV Pilot Programs in Copper-Belt Nations
  3. Currency Volatility Elevating Import Costs for CKD Kits

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Passenger cars dominated the Africa automotive market with a 66.58% share in 2025, reflecting personal mobility's appeal across sprawling urban centers. However, freight growth under AfCFTA and booming e-commerce pivot attention toward vans, pickups, and heavy trucks that are forecast to outpace passenger models at an 8.36% CAGR. Light commercial vehicles benefit from last-mile parcel volumes, whereas medium and heavy trucks haul regionally traded goods under harmonized customs corridors. Mining firms quickly test battery-electric dumpers, signaling future substitution opportunities in heavy-duty fleets.

Commercial vehicle assemblers leverage government incentives that waive import duties on chassis and drivetrains, narrowing price gaps versus grey-market used imports. Global production reallocations also matter: Morocco surpassed South Africa in 2024 with 614,000 units, creating a deep supplier base that can pivot toward freight platforms. As logistics players formalize operations, fleet replenishment cycles shorten, sustaining momentum in this segment of the Africa automotive market.

Internal combustion engines retained a 90.68% share in 2025, underscoring affordable fuel and servicing ecosystems. Nevertheless, battery electrics are projected to post a 10.12% CAGR on the back of Chinese OEM launches and fiscal incentives in Rwanda, Kenya, and Egypt. Pre-owned hybrid imports from Japan seed early consumer familiarity with electrified drivetrains, while duty exemptions on EV components lower the total cost of ownership for commercial fleets.

Grid stability constraints slow rollout outside major metros, yet copper-belt mining sites deploy off-grid solar-battery hubs to power electric pickups. Over time, diminishing battery costs and wider charging corridors could unlock a steeper adoption curve, gradually trimming ICE dominance in the African automotive market.

The Africa Automotive Market Report is Segmented by Vehicle Type (Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles), Propulsion Type (ICE, and More), End-Use (Personal, Fleet and Leasing, and More), Sales Channel (CBU, SKD/CKD, and More), and by Country (South Africa, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Rest of Africa). Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume in (Units).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

  1. Toyota Motor Corporation
  2. Volkswagen AG
  3. Groupe Renault
  4. Hyundai Motor Company
  5. Ford Motor Company
  6. Daimler Truck AG
  7. Volvo Group
  8. Isuzu Motors Ltd
  9. Tata Motors Ltd
  10. Ashok Leyland
  11. Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing Co.
  12. Stellantis (Peugeot, Opel)
  13. Nissan Motor Co.
  14. Kia Corporation
  15. BAIC Group
  16. Chery Automobile Co.
  17. BYD Auto
  18. Geely Automobile Holdings
  19. Great Wall Motor (Haval)
  20. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC)

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rising Passenger-Car Ownership Among Africa's Urban Middle Class
    • 4.2.2 Growing Chinese OEM CKD/SKD Investments (E.G., BYD, Chery)
    • 4.2.3 AFCFTA Tariff Reductions Stimulating Intra-Regional Trade
    • 4.2.4 Expansion of Ride-Hailing and Last-Mile Delivery Fleets
    • 4.2.5 Surge in Diaspora-Financed Vehicle Purchases Via Fintech Remittance Platforms
    • 4.2.6 Mining-Sector EV Pilot Programs in Copper-Belt Nations Driving Demand for Electric Pickups
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Chronic Port Congestion and Inland Logistics Bottlenecks
    • 4.3.2 Currency Volatility Elevating Import Costs for CKD Kits
    • 4.3.3 Grey-Market Used-Vehicle Influx Curbing New-Car Demand
    • 4.3.4 Shortage Of ISO-Certified Auto-Grade Steel Rolling Capacity in West Africa
  • 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook (ICE, Hybrid, BEV, FCEV)
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
    • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value in (USD) and Volume in (Units), 2019-2030)

  • 5.1 By Vehicle Type
    • 5.1.1 Passenger Cars
      • 5.1.1.1 Hatchback
      • 5.1.1.2 Sedan
      • 5.1.1.3 SUV & Crossover
      • 5.1.1.4 MPV & Others
    • 5.1.2 Commercial Vehicles
      • 5.1.2.1 Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV)
      • 5.1.2.2 Medium & Heavy Trucks
      • 5.1.2.3 Buses & Coaches
  • 5.2 By Propulsion Type
    • 5.2.1 Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
    • 5.2.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
    • 5.2.3 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
    • 5.2.4 Alternative Fuels (CNG/LPG, Flex-fuel, FCEV)
  • 5.3 By End-Use
    • 5.3.1 Personal Ownership
    • 5.3.2 Fleet & Leasing
    • 5.3.3 Ride-hailing / Mobility Service Providers
    • 5.3.4 Government & Institutional
  • 5.4 By Sales Channel
    • 5.4.1 Completely Built-up Imports (CBU)
    • 5.4.2 Semi/Completely Knocked-down Assembly (SKD/CKD)
    • 5.4.3 Used-Vehicle Imports
  • 5.5 By Country
    • 5.5.1 South Africa
    • 5.5.2 Morocco
    • 5.5.3 Algeria
    • 5.5.4 Egypt
    • 5.5.5 Nigeria
    • 5.5.6 Ghana
    • 5.5.7 Kenya
    • 5.5.8 Rest of Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Toyota Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.2 Volkswagen AG
    • 6.4.3 Groupe Renault
    • 6.4.4 Hyundai Motor Company
    • 6.4.5 Ford Motor Company
    • 6.4.6 Daimler Truck AG
    • 6.4.7 Volvo Group
    • 6.4.8 Isuzu Motors Ltd
    • 6.4.9 Tata Motors Ltd
    • 6.4.10 Ashok Leyland
    • 6.4.11 Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing Co.
    • 6.4.12 Stellantis (Peugeot, Opel)
    • 6.4.13 Nissan Motor Co.
    • 6.4.14 Kia Corporation
    • 6.4.15 BAIC Group
    • 6.4.16 Chery Automobile Co.
    • 6.4.17 BYD Auto
    • 6.4.18 Geely Automobile Holdings
    • 6.4.19 Great Wall Motor (Haval)
    • 6.4.20 Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC)

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook