营运商中立者希望搭乘 GenAI 浪潮 - 2023 年 1 月更新：CNNO 收入预计在 2023 年达到 100B 美元，资本密集度 >35%，因为行业抓住生成式 AI 和 5G 緻密化的机会

最近 12 个月（2022 年第三季至 2023 年第二季）CNNO 市场规模为营收 967 亿美元（年成长 2.7%）及资本投资 348 亿美元（年成长 2.7%）其中，併购投资88亿美元（年减68.9%），工厂净投资2,511亿美元（年增2.3%）。截至2023年6月末，中海油拥有员工约11.37万人，较去年同期成长4.8%。

视觉

经历了 2022 年下半年的低迷之后，CNNO 部门在 2023 年开始有所改善，第一季和第二季的营收成长率分别为 3% 和 5%。利率上升减缓了併购速度，迫使 CNNO 更加谨慎地管理债务，但资本支出仍然很高，占销售额的 35% 以上。CNNO 不断透过分拆、资产购买和不时创建新产品来优化其足迹和规模。例如，Cogent 将于 2022 年底从 Sprint 购买一系列旧交换中心，并将其中一些转变为较小的託管中心。CNNO 正在加大永续发展力度，重点是最大限度地降低电力成本，或至少减少价格上涨的影响。

就成长而言，CNNO 预计将利用两个重要机会。首先，它支援营运商行动网路緻密化需求。4G 需要更高的密度，但 5G 需要更高的密度才能满足延迟和速度目标。以中国铁塔为例，2023年第二季度，中国铁塔楼内DAS覆盖面积扩大至88.2亿平方米，较去年同期成长48%。其次将透过建设设施和提供满足新兴需求的服务来支援技术领域，该领域对生成式人工智慧的兴趣正在爆炸式增长。例如，DigitalBridge 认为人工智慧是一个“云端规模的机会”，并且“以最低的总成本访问数位基础设施是成功的关键因素”。这对资料中心 CNNO 来说是一个巨大的机会，因为 CNNO 专门从事 "数位基础设施的存取" 。投资 GenAI 的大型网路缩放器可能希望专门为模型训练建立自己的设施，但像 Digital Realty 和 Equinix 这样的 CNNO 将在模型实现（即推理）中发挥作用。

本报告检视了 CNNO 市场，并分析了 5G 和生成式人工智慧带来的机会。

范围

对象经营者

21Vianet American Tower Balitower Bharti Infratel Cellnex China Tower ChinData Chorus Limited CK Hutchison Cogent Crown Castle CyrusOne Cyxtera Digital Realty DigitalBridge EI Towers Equinix GDS Data Centers GTL Infrastructure Helios Towers

IBS Towers IHS Towers Internap Inwit Keppel DC REIT Level 3 NBN Australia NEXTDC QTS Realty SBA Communications SMN (Protelindo) Summit Digitel Sunevision Superloop TDF Infrastructure/Arcus Telesites Tower Bersama Uniti Group Zayo

目录

• 摘要
• 2023年上半年营收年增4%，资本投入成长15%
• 自由现金流利润率在过去几季有所下降，净利润率为负值
• 生成式人工智慧为资料中心公司带来新机遇
• 5G 需要移动 RAN 的緻密化，为 CNNO 创造机会
• 预测
• 附录

This brief is focused on the carrier-neutral network operator (CNNO) sector. CNNOs sell independent, carrier-neutral access to network infrastructure, including bandwidth (fiber), data center and tower/small cell assets. The biggest CNNOs by revenues are China Tower, American Tower, Equinix, Crown Castle, Level 3 (a Lumen subsidiary), Digital Realty, Cellnex, NBN Australia, Indus Towers (ex-Bharti Infratel), and Zayo. In the most recent 12 months (3Q22-2Q23), the CNNO market represented $96.7 billion in revenues (+2.7% YoY), $34.8B in capex (+9.4% YoY), $8.8B in M&A spend (-68.9% YoY), and $251.1B of net plant (+2.3% YoY). CNNOs employed about 113.7K people at the end of June 2023, up 4.8% YoY.

VISUALS

After a weak second half 2022 (2H22), the CNNO sector has begun to improve in 2023 with 3% and 5% revenue growth rates in the first two quarters, respectively. Higher interest rates have slowed M&A and forced CNNOs to manage debt more carefully, but capex outlays remain high at over 35% of revenues. CNNOs continue to optimize their footprint and scale, spinning off and buying or building assets accordingly. One example: Cogent bought a portfolio of old switching centers from Sprint in late 2022 and is converting some to small colocation centers. CNNOs are increasing their focus on minimizing power costs - or at least limiting the impact of price rises - and gearing up their sustainability efforts.

For growth, we expect CNNOs to attack two important opportunities. First: support the telco need to densify their mobile networks; that means more small cell/DAS and metro fiber infra, but also more macro tower sites. Densification was required with 4G, but 5G requires even more in order to achieve its latency and speed goals. China Tower, as an example, expanded its in-building DAS coverage to 8,820 million square meters in 2Q23, up by 48% YoY. Second: support the tech sector's explosion of interest in generative AI ("GenAI"), by building facilities and offering services that match these new needs. DigitalBridge, for example, argues that AI is a "cloud-scale opportunity" and that "access to digital infra...at the lowest total cost, is a key success factor." CNNOs specialize in "access to digital infra" so this is a big opportunity for data center CNNOs. The big webscalers investing in GenAI will surely also want to build their own facilities, especially for model training, but CNNOs like Digital Realty and Equinix have roles to play with model implementation (i.e. inference).

COVERAGE:

Operators covered:

Table of Contents

• Summary
• Revenues up 4%, Capex up 15% YoY in the 1H23 period
• Free cash flow margin slides over the last few quarters; net margin is negative
• Generative AI opens up new opportunities for data center players
• 5G requires densification in the mobile RAN, creating CNNO opportunities
• Outlook
• Appendix

List of Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: YoY growth rates for single quarter revenues and capex, CNNOs
• Figure 2: CNNOs' net PP&E on the books alongside capex and M&A spending
• Figure 3: Annualized revenues ($B) and capital intensity for CNNO sector
• Figure 4: Capex for key CNNOs in 1H23 ($M)
• Figure 5: Recent profitability margins for CNNO sector, annualized
• Figure 6: Top and bottom CNNOs based on annualized FCF margin in 2Q23
• Figure 7: Implications of GenAI for data center requirements in CNNO market
• Figure 8: Densification solutions for improved coverage, per American Tower
• Figure 9: China Tower's in-building DAS coverage, millions of square meters