市场调查报告书
商品编码
1511333
2030 年合规碳信用市场预测:按类型、应用、最终用户和地区进行的全球分析Compliance Carbon Credit Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Type (Certified Emission Reductions, Emission Reduction Units, Removal Units and Other Types), Application, End User and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,2024 年全球合规碳信用市场规模将达到 1,172 亿美元,预计将以 15.6% 的复合年增长率成长,到 2030 年将达到 2,797 亿美元。
碳信用额是一种可交易的许可证,代表排放一吨二氧化碳或等量二氧化碳的权利。它是旨在减少温室气体排放的碳排放交易计划的关键组成部分。随着产业和政府寻求具有成本效益的方法来实现排放目标,碳信用市场显着成长。这一增长反映出世界对气候变迁的认识不断增强,并努力透过基于市场的机制减轻其影响。
根据国际排放贸易协会(IETA)的数据,制定碳定价倡议的国家和地区数量大幅增加。 2016年有41个国家,2022年将增加到85个国家。此外,越来越多的国家和地区正在积极考虑引入自己的碳定价机制。
增加政府法规和减碳目标
世界各国政府正在实施更严格的排放法规,并制定雄心勃勃的碳减排目标,以应对气候变迁。随着公司寻求具有成本效益的方法来满足强制排放限制,这推动了对合规排碳权的需求。各地区碳定价机制与排放交易体系的范围不断扩大,迫使更多企业参与碳市场,刺激市场成长。随着法规收紧,企业正在转向碳信用额来抵消内部无法轻易减少的排放。
缺乏标准化和透明度
合规碳信用市场因缺乏测量、报告和检验减排放的标准化方法而面临挑战。不同司法管辖区的碳信用规则和品质标准各不相同,因此很难确保一致性和可比性。碳计量和抵消计划的复杂性也导致了透明度问题,包括对排放的真正额外性和持久性的担忧。缺乏标准化和透明度可能会削弱市场信心,并阻碍碳信用作为合规工具的广泛采用。
技术进步
区块链和分散式帐本技术可以提高碳信用额的透明度、可追溯性和检验。先进的监测和资料分析工具使您能够更准确地衡量减排放。人工智慧和机器学习可以优化碳信用额交易和风险管理。这些技术进步有可能提高市场效率,降低交易成本,增强对碳信用完整性的信心,并扩大市场参与和流动性。
碳洩漏风险
碳洩漏对合规碳信用市场的有效性构成威胁。一个司法管辖区更严格的排放法规可能会导致公司将碳集中业务转移到监管较少的地区,从而增加全球整体排放。这可能会破坏碳减排努力的环境完整性并扭曲竞争。
COVID-19 大流行最初扰乱了碳市场,由于经济活动和排放减少,导致信贷价格暴跌。然而,随着经济復苏,人们重新关注气候行动,并对碳信用的需求增加。这次疫情凸显了韧性和永续性的重要性,并可能加速合规碳市场的长期成长,作为绿色復苏努力的一部分。
预计核证减排放(CER)部分将在预测期内成为最大的部分
由于其国际认可度和清洁发展机制(CDM)下的既定方法,核证减排放(CER)部分可能会主导合规排碳权市场。 CER 提供了一种标准化且检验的排放方法,并被多个司法管辖区所接受。其跨行业和地区的广泛适用性使其对信贷买家和卖家都有吸引力。随着越来越多的国家将国际碳信用纳入其合规机制,对高品质核证减排量的需求预计将增加,其市场地位将得到巩固。
工业加工产业预计在预测期内复合年增长率最高
由于能源密集型产业脱碳压力越来越大,工业流程产业可望在合规碳信用市场中快速成长。由于这些行业面临更严格的排放法规,它们正在转向碳信用来排放难以减少的排放。工业流程中的技术创新也为排放和信用创造创造了新的机会。该行业大规模排放的潜力,加上监管兴趣的增加,正在推动工业碳信用计划的投资,从而促成最高的预期复合年增长率。
在其完善的欧盟排放权交易体系(EU ETS)和雄心勃勃的气候目标的推动下,欧洲预计将保持其在合规碳信用市场的主导地位。该地区严格的法律规范涵盖多个行业,创造了对碳信用的持续需求。欧洲在气候政策方面的领导地位及其在 2050 年实现净零排放的承诺进一步巩固了其市场地位。国际信贷一体化和欧洲各国碳定价机制的扩展正在为该地区的巨大市场占有率和持续成长做出贡献。
由于快速的工业化、不断提高的环保意识以及越来越多地采用排放权交易系统,亚太地区预计将在合规碳信用市场中经历最高的复合年增长率。中国、韩国和日本等国家正在扩大其碳市场,为信用创造和交易创造新的机会。该地区经济的快速成长和雄心勃勃的气候变迁措施正在推动对具有成本效益的排放解决方案的需求。随着越来越多的亚洲国家引入碳定价机制,该地区有望加速合规排碳权领域的成长。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Compliance Carbon Credit Market is accounted for $117.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $279.7 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 15.6% during the forecast period. Carbon credits are tradable permits representing the right to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide or its equivalent. They are a key component of carbon trading schemes aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The market for carbon credits has grown significantly as industries and governments seek cost-effective ways to meet emission reduction targets. This growth reflects increasing global awareness of climate change and efforts to mitigate its effects through market-based mechanisms.
According to the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), the number of countries and regions with carbon pricing initiatives has grown significantly. In 2016, there were 41, and by 2022, that number had risen to 85. Additionally, more countries and regions are actively considering implementing their own carbon pricing mechanisms.
Increasing government regulations and carbon reduction targets
Governments worldwide are implementing stricter emissions regulations and setting ambitious carbon reduction targets to combat climate change. This is driving demand for compliance carbon credits as companies seek cost-effective ways to meet their mandated emissions limits. The expanding scope of carbon pricing mechanisms and emissions trading systems across regions is compelling more industries to participate in carbon markets, fueling market growth. As regulations tighten, companies are increasingly turning to carbon credits to offset emissions they cannot easily reduce internally.
Lack of standardization and transparency
The compliance carbon credit market faces challenges due to a lack of standardized methodologies for measuring, reporting, and verifying emissions reductions. Different jurisdictions have varying rules and quality standards for carbon credits, making it difficult to ensure consistency and comparability. The complex nature of carbon accounting and offset projects also leads to transparency issues, with concerns about the true additionality and permanence of emissions reductions. This lack of standardization and transparency can undermine market confidence and hinder broader adoption of carbon credits as a compliance tool.
Technological advancements
Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies can improve transparency, traceability, and verification of carbon credits. Advanced monitoring and data analytics tools enable more accurate measurement of emissions reductions. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can optimize carbon credit trading and risk management. These technological advancements have the potential to increase market efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and build greater trust in the integrity of carbon credits, thereby expanding market participation and liquidity.
Risk of carbon leakage
Carbon leakage poses a threat to the effectiveness of compliance carbon credit markets. There is a risk that stringent emissions regulations in one jurisdiction may lead companies to relocate their carbon-intensive operations to regions with less strict policies, potentially increasing overall global emissions. This can undermine the environmental integrity of carbon reduction efforts and distort competition.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially disrupted carbon markets, causing a sharp drop in credit prices due to reduced economic activity and emissions. However, as economies recovered, there was renewed focus on climate action, leading to increased demand for carbon credits. The pandemic highlighted the importance of resilience and sustainability, potentially accelerating long-term growth in compliance carbon markets as part of green recovery efforts.
The certified emission reductions (CERs) segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The certified emission reductions (CERs) segment is likely to dominate the compliance carbon credit market due to their international recognition and established methodologies under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). CERs offer a standardized, verified approach to emissions reductions that is accepted in multiple jurisdictions. Their wide applicability across sectors and geographies makes them attractive to both credit buyers and sellers. As more countries integrate international carbon credits into their compliance mechanisms, the demand for high-quality CERs is expected to grow, solidifying their position in the market.
The industrial processes segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The industrial processes segment is poised for rapid growth in the compliance carbon credit market due to increasing pressure on energy-intensive industries to decarbonize. As these sectors face stricter emissions regulations, they are turning to carbon credits to offset hard-to-abate emissions. Technological innovations in industrial processes are also creating new opportunities for emissions reduction and credit generation. The potential for large-scale emissions reductions in this sector, coupled with growing regulatory focus, is driving investment in industrial carbon credit projects, leading to the highest projected CAGR.
Europe is set to maintain its dominance in the compliance carbon credit market, driven by its well-established EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and ambitious climate targets. The region's stringent regulatory framework, covering multiple sectors, creates consistent demand for carbon credits. Europe's leadership in climate policy and commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 further reinforce its market position. The integration of international credits and the expansion of carbon pricing mechanisms across European countries contribute to the region's large market share and continued growth.
Asia Pacific is expected to experience the highest CAGR in the compliance carbon credit market, fueled by rapid industrialization, growing environmental awareness, and increasing adoption of emissions trading systems. Countries like China, South Korea, and Japan are expanding their carbon markets, creating new opportunities for credit generation and trading. The region's fast-growing economies and ambitious climate commitments are driving demand for cost-effective emissions reduction solutions. As more Asian countries implement carbon pricing mechanisms, the region is poised for accelerated growth in the compliance carbon credit sector.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Compliance Carbon Credit market include 3 Degrees, AltaGas, Bluesource LLC, Carbon Care Asia Limited, Carbon Credit Capital, Carbonbetter, Clearsky Climate Solutions, Climate Impact Partners, Climate Trade, Climatepartner GmbH, Climeco LLC, Climetrek Ltd., Cool Effect, Inc., Degrees Group Inc., EcoAct, EKI Energy Services Ltd., Finite Carbon and Forest Carbon.
In November 2023, Bluesource Sustainable Forest Company submitted a revised Annual Operating Plan to reduce logging in favor of carbon credits within New Hampshire's conservation easement. This move is part of their participation in California's Air Resource Board Compliance Offset Program.
In January 2023, ClimeCo announced the acquisition of 3GreenTree Ecosystem Service Ltd. to enhance their sustainable project portfolio.