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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1662796
2030 年自动驾驶卡车市场预测:按卡车类型、推进类型、组件、自动化程度、应用和地区进行的全球分析Autonomous Trucks Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Truck Type (Light-Duty Trucks, Medium-Duty Trucks and Heavy-Duty Trucks), Propulsion Type (Diesel, Electric and Hybrid), Component, Automation Level, Application and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,全球自动驾驶卡车市场预计在 2024 年达到 345.9 亿美元,到 2030 年将达到 751.7 亿美元,预测期内的复合年增长率为 12.8%。
自动驾驶卡车是一种商用车辆,它使用人工智慧 (AI)、感测器、摄影机、雷达和先进的软体,在极少的人工干预下或完全不需要人工干预的情况下行驶。它使用 LiDAR、GPS 和机器学习等技术来侦测障碍物、解释交通号誌并优化路线。该公司的目标是提高效率,减少人为错误,降低运输成本,并最终彻底改变物流、货运和供应链管理等行业的远距货运和配送服务。
美国联邦汽车运输安全管理局与卡车运输业领导者合作进行的一项研究发现,采用自动驾驶技术可将追撞事故减少 50%,同时提高资产运作和驾驶员保留率。
物流和货运需求不断成长
电子商务、即时交付模式和全球化的快速扩张推动着对高效、经济且可扩展的运输解决方案的需求。自动驾驶卡车可以提供全天候营运、减少人为错误并降低营运成本,有助于解决驾驶员短缺、燃料成本上升和供应链效率低下等挑战。公司正在投资自动驾驶技术以优化车队管理并提高运输速度。随着货运量持续上升,自动驾驶卡车的采用将加速,以有效满足需求,这将显着促进市场成长。
监管和法律的不确定性
自动驾驶卡车的监管和法律不确定性源于不同国家和州的法律差异,以及缺乏有关检查、操作和责任的标准化政策。各国政府一直在努力确定事故责任、网路安全风险和道德问题,从而减缓了大规模部署。不一致的规定给製造商和车队营运商设置了障碍,增加了合规成本并阻碍了投资。这种不确定性将减缓该技术的采用,并最终阻碍自动驾驶卡车市场的成长。
人工智慧和感测器技术的进步
人工智慧和感测器技术的进步是自动驾驶卡车的关键驱动力,可增强车辆的感知、导航和决策能力。人工智慧演算法处理来自光达、雷达、相机和 GPS 的即时资料,以改善物体侦测、避障和路线最佳化。这些创新透过减少人为错误、优化燃料消耗和降低营运成本,使自动驾驶卡车更加现实。随着感测器精度和人工智慧能力的提升,物流、货运和工业领域的应用将加速,从而推动市场扩张。
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由于自动驾驶技术需要昂贵的硬体和软体,因此自动驾驶卡车的初始投资成本很高。先进的光达、雷达、摄影机、支援人工智慧的处理器和连接解决方案大大增加了生产成本。此外,研发成本、法规遵循和基础设施升级也增加了财务负担。这些高成本,尤其是对于中小型物流公司而言,将限制采用,从而阻碍市场成长。
COVID-19 疫情扰乱了自动驾驶卡车市场,导致供应链延迟、半导体短缺以及研发活动放缓。然而,劳动力短缺和不断增长的电子商务需求也凸显了物流自动化的必要性。虽然某些地区的监管进展缓慢,但人们对自动驾驶技术的长期兴趣日益增长,刺激了货运自动化领域的伙伴关係和创新,以提高未来供应链营运的效率和弹性。
预计预测期内感测器部分将成为最大的部分。
预计预测期内感测器部分将占据最大的市场占有率。感测器在自动驾驶卡车中发挥着至关重要的作用,实现即时感知、导航和决策。光达、雷达、摄影机和超音波感测器等技术可实现即时物体侦测、车道维持和主动车距控制巡航系统。这些感测器透过减少人为错误、增强障碍物检测以及实现不同天气条件下的精确导航来提高道路安全性。
预计预测期内港口和码头业务部门将以最高的复合年增长率成长。
由于效率提高、成本降低和安全性增强,预计港口和码头业务部门将在预测期内实现最高成长率。这些自动驾驶汽车将实现货柜运输自动化,减少对人类驾驶员的依赖并最大限度地减少延误。使用 AI、LiDAR、GPS 和 IoT 来导航复杂环境并优化负载处理和物流。总体而言,它正在提高全球贸易中心的供应链效率。
在预测期内,由于电子商务的兴起、货运需求的增加以及政府对自动化的支持倡议,预计亚太地区将占据最大的市场占有率。得益于人工智慧、5G 和智慧基础设施的进步,中国、日本和韩国等国家在自动驾驶汽车发展方面处于领先地位。中国科技巨头和汽车製造商正在大力投资自动驾驶卡车,而日本则专注于解决驾驶员短缺问题。此外,强劲的工业化和物流扩张使亚太地区成为全球自动驾驶卡车行业的主要参与企业。
在预测期内,北美预计将呈现最高的复合年增长率,这得益于货运需求旺盛、卡车驾驶人短缺和强劲的技术进步。美国引领市场,特斯拉、Waymo 和 TuSimple 等公司正在开发自动驾驶卡车技术。政府支持,包括测试核准和法规结构,正在加速采用。加拿大也在投资远距路线的自动驾驶卡车。北美继续成为自动驾驶卡车解决方案创新和部署的重要枢纽。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Autonomous Trucks Market is accounted for $34.59 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $75.17 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 12.8% during the forecast period. Autonomous trucks are self-driving commercial vehicles that use artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, cameras, radar, and advanced software to navigate roads with minimal or no human intervention. They operate using technologies like LiDAR, GPS, and machine learning to detect obstacles, interpret traffic signals, and optimize routes. They aim to enhance efficiency, reduce human error, and lower transportation costs in industries like logistics, freight, and supply chain management, ultimately revolutionizing long-haul trucking and delivery services.
According to a study conducted by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in collaboration with trucking industry leaders, the implementation of autonomous technologies has enabled a 50% reduction in rear-end crashes and an increase in asset uptime and driver retention.
Growing demand for logistics & freight transportation
The rapid expansion of e-commerce, just-in-time delivery models, and globalization have increased the need for efficient, cost-effective, and scalable transportation solutions. Autonomous trucks help address challenges like driver shortages, rising fuel costs, and supply chain inefficiencies by offering 24/7 operation, reduced human errors, and lower operational costs. Companies are investing in self-driving technology to optimize fleet management and enhance delivery speed. As freight volumes continue to rise, the adoption of autonomous trucks accelerates to meet demand efficiently, boosting market growth significantly.
Regulatory & legal uncertainty
Regulatory and legal uncertainty in autonomous trucks arises from varying laws across countries and states, lacking standardized policies for testing, operation, and liability. Governments struggle to define responsibility in accidents, cybersecurity risks, and ethical concerns, delaying large-scale deployment. Inconsistent regulations create barriers for manufacturers and fleet operators, increasing compliance costs and limiting investment confidence. This uncertainty slows technological adoption, ultimately hampering the growth of the autonomous trucks market.
Advancements in AI & sensor technology
Advancements in AI and sensor technology are key drivers of the autonomous trucks, enhancing vehicle perception, navigation, and decision-making. AI-powered algorithms process real-time data from LiDAR, radar, cameras, and GPS, improving object detection, obstacle avoidance, and route optimization. These innovations reduce human errors, optimize fuel consumption, and lower operational costs, making autonomous trucking more viable. As sensor accuracy and AI capabilities improve, adoption accelerates across logistics, freight, and industrial sectors, thereby propelling the market expansion.
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Autonomous trucks have high initial investment costs due to the expensive hardware and software required for self-driving technology. Advanced LiDAR, radar, cameras, AI-powered processors, and connectivity solutions significantly increase production costs. Additionally, R&D expenses, regulatory compliance, and infrastructure upgrades add to the financial burden. These high costs hamper market growth by limiting adoption, especially for small and mid-sized logistics companies.
The covid-19 pandemic disrupted the autonomous trucks market, causing supply chain delays, semiconductor shortages, and slowed R&D activities. However, it also highlighted the need for automation in logistics due to labor shortages and rising e-commerce demand. Regulatory progress was delayed in some regions, but long-term interest in self-driving technology grew, accelerating partnerships and innovation in freight automation to enhance efficiency and resilience in future supply chain operations.
The sensors segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The sensors segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period. Sensors play a crucial role in autonomous trucks, enabling real-time perception, navigation, and decision-making. Technologies like LiDAR, radar, cameras, and ultrasonic sensors enable real-time object detection, lane-keeping, and adaptive cruise control. These sensors improve road safety by reducing human errors, enhancing obstacle detection, and enabling precise navigation in various weather conditions.
The port & terminal operations segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the port & terminal operations segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate owing to their improved efficiency, reducing costs, and enhancing safety. These self-driving vehicles automate container transport, reducing reliance on human drivers and minimizing delays. Using AI, LiDAR, GPS, and IoT, they navigate complex environments, optimizing cargo handling and logistics. Overall, they enhance supply chain efficiency in global trade hubs.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share due to rising e-commerce, increasing freight demand, and government initiatives supporting automation. Countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are leading in autonomous vehicle development, driven by advancements in AI, 5G, and smart infrastructure. China's tech giants and automakers invest heavily in self-driving trucks, while Japan focuses on mitigating driver shortages. Further, strong industrialization and logistics expansion positioned Asia-Pacific as a key player in the global autonomous trucking industry.
Over the forecast period, the North America region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR driven by high demand for freight transportation, a shortage of truck drivers, and strong technological advancements. The U.S. leads the market, with companies like Tesla, Waymo, and TuSimple developing self-driving truck technology. Government support, including testing approvals and regulatory frameworks, accelerates adoption. Canada is also investing in autonomous trucking for long-haul routes. North America remains a key hub for innovation and deployment of autonomous trucking solutions.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Autonomous Trucks market include Hyundai Motor Company, Iveco Group, Scania, Traton Group, Gatik, Volvo Autonomous Solutions, Kodiak Robotics, Daimler Trucks, Tesla, Waymo, TuSimple, Embark Trucks, Aurora Innovation, Einride, Torc Robotics, Pronto.ai, Caterpillar Inc. and Plus.
In November 2024, Caterpillar Inc. has launched the fully autonomous Cat(R) 777 off-highway truck. The Cat(R) 777, a mid-sized off-highway truck widely used in mining and construction, has been successfully operated without human intervention. With this successful demonstration, Caterpillar strengthens its position as a leader in autonomous heavy machinery, paving the way for broader adoption of self-driving construction and mining equipment worldwide.
In October 2024, Traton Group and Plus launched the Level 4 autonomous truck operations in the US and Europe. The companies have also mapped hub-to-hub routes for phased commercial deployment in Texas. This milestone signifies the successful completion of their initial phase of collaboration to bring driverless trucks to the global market.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.