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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1880384
地热能市场预测至2032年:按电站类型、组件、技术、应用、最终用户和地区分類的全球分析Geothermal Energy Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Power Plant Type, Component, Technology, Application, End User, and By Geography |
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根据 Stratistics MRC 预测,2025 年全球地热能源市场规模预计将达到 103 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 154 亿美元。
预计在预测期内,地热能市场将以5.8%的复合年增长率成长。地热能市场涵盖利用地表以下热能发电或直接供暖製冷的各种技术和计划,包括探勘、钻井、发电厂、区域供热网路和地源热泵。其优点包括营运成本低且稳定、提供基础负荷再生能源、基本负载排放极低、减少对进口燃料的依赖,以及资产寿命长,有助于实现能源安全和脱碳目标。
根据国际可再生能源机构(IRENA)的数据,到 2024 年底,全球地热发电装置容量将达到约 15.4 吉瓦。
全球对可再生能源的需求不断增长,将其作为实现气候目标的主要能源。
全球应对气候目标的努力是推动地热能发展的强大动力。与太阳能和风能等间歇性能源不同,地热能能够提供持续可靠的基本负载电力,这对电网稳定至关重要。这种持续绿能供给能力使其成为各国电力部门脱碳的关键组成部分。此外,地运转率确保了稳定的能源供应,直接支持逐步淘汰石化燃料,使其成为建构永续未来可再生能源组合中的策略要素。
地理因素对可利用的热液资源的限制
目前,经济高效的地热发电依赖于特定的地质条件:高热通量、渗透性良好的岩层以及充足的水储存。这些条件仅存在于某些特定区域,例如「环太平洋火山带」。这使得大规模开发仅限于特定的构造和地质区域,也使得许多国家无法直接开发。因此,这些特殊地质资源在全球分布不均,从根本上限制了地热市场的扩张潜力。
扩大对新兴市场的投资
对于新兴市场,特别是东南亚和东非的投资不断增加,蕴藏着巨大的机会。这些地区拥有丰富的尚未开发的地热资源,同时迫切需要电力供应和经济发展。国际资金筹措和技术转移使得资本密集的探勘和钻井计划更具可行性。资金的涌入正在推动新计划的发展,丰富全球地热资源格局,并为传统热点地区以外的长期市场扩张奠定基础。
由于太阳能和风能发电成本下降,竞争加剧。
最直接的威胁来自太阳能和风能成本的持续下降。这些可变可再生的新装置成本已降至历史新低,使其成为许多寻求廉价清洁能源的公用事业公司和投资者的首选。这使得面临更高初始探勘和钻井风险的地热能在购电协议中处于竞争劣势。因此,地热计划在资金筹措和市场份额方面面临日益激烈的竞争,这可能会减缓其普及速度。
新冠疫情严重衝击了地热市场,导致供应链瓶颈和计划延期。封锁和限制措施阻碍了专业设备和熟练工人向偏远计划现场的调动,延缓了开发进度。此外,早期经济的不确定性也暂时推迟了新计画的最终投资决策。然而,该产业展现了强大的韧性,清洁能源的长期发展动力依然强劲,政府重新聚焦永续经济奖励策略也推动了产业復苏。
预计在预测期内,蒸气装置细分市场将占据最大的市场份额。
预计在预测期内,闪蒸式地蒸气发电厂将占据最大的市场份额,因为它是目前应用最广泛、技术最成熟的地热发电方式,尤其适用于温度高于180°C的高温地储存。其高效的运作效率和将地热资源转化为电力的成熟经验使其成为众多开发商的首选。成熟地热市场中丰富的高温资源进一步巩固了该领域的主导地位,预计在不久的将来仍将保持领先地位,并提供可靠的大规模发电。
预计在预测期内,钻井设备细分市场将呈现最高的复合年增长率。
预计在预测期内,钻井设备领域将达到最高成长率。全球对待开发区计划和现有地热发电厂扩建的投资不断增加,直接推动了这一快速成长。钻井在计划资本支出中占很大比例,随着开发进程的加快,对先进且高效的钻机及相关服务的需求日益增长。此外,旨在降低钻井成本和提高增强型地热系统(EGS)成功率的技术创新,也将进一步推动该领域的扩张。
预计北美将在预测期内占据最大的市场份额。这项优势得益于西部各州,特别是加州和内华达州,已建立并广泛应用的成熟地热基础设施。完善的法规结构和州级可再生能源组合标准持续推动地热发展。此外,对现有电厂现代化改造和新型先进地热技术的持续投资,进一步巩固了该地区的优势,充分利用了其长期累积的专业知识和丰富的高品质资源。
预计亚太地区在预测期内将实现最高的复合年增长率,这主要得益于巨大的未开发潜力以及不断增长的能源需求。印尼、菲律宾和纽西兰等国正积极开发其丰富的地热资源,旨在增强能源安全并减少碳排放。政府的大规模倡议,以及不断增长的国际投资和伙伴关係,正在推动计划储备的加速成长。这种需求、资源可用性和资金支持的动态组合,预计将使该地区成为全球成长最快的市场。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Geothermal Energy Market is accounted for $10.3 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $15.4 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.8% during the forecast period. The geothermal energy market covers technologies and projects that tap heat from beneath the Earth's surface to generate electricity and provide direct heating and cooling. It includes exploration, drilling, power plants, district heating networks, and geothermal heat pumps. Benefits include low and stable operating costs, baseload renewable power, very low emissions, reduced dependence on imported fuels, and long asset lifetimes that support energy security and decarbonization goals.
According to IRENA, global installed geothermal power capacity reached ~15.4 GW by end-2024.
Rising global demand for baseload renewable energy to achieve climate goals
The global push to meet climate targets is a powerful driver for geothermal energy. Unlike intermittent sources like solar and wind, geothermal provides a consistent, reliable baseload power that is crucial for grid stability. This capacity to deliver continuous, clean electricity makes it indispensable for nations committed to decarbonizing their power sectors. Furthermore, its high capacity factor ensures a stable energy supply, directly supporting the phase-out of fossil fuels and making it a strategic component in the renewable energy mix for a sustainable future.
Geographical limitations to viable hydrothermal resources
Economical geothermal power generation currently depends on specific geological conditions, namely high heat flow and permeable rock with substantial water reservoirs, which are only found in distinct regions like the "Ring of Fire." This confines large-scale development to specific tectonic areas, excluding many countries from direct exploitation. Consequently, the planet's uneven distribution of these prime geological resources inherently caps the market's natural expansion.
Increasing investment in emerging markets
Increasing investment into emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and East Africa, presents a substantial opportunity. These regions possess vast, untapped geothermal potential aligned with their urgent need for electrification and economic development. International financing and technology transfers are making capital-intensive exploration and drilling projects more feasible. This influx of capital is unlocking new projects, diversifying the global geothermal landscape, and setting the stage for significant long-term market expansion beyond traditional hotspots.
Competition from declining costs of solar PV and wind power
The most pressing threat comes from the relentless cost decline of solar PV and wind power. These variable renewables have achieved record-low prices for new installations, making them the default choice for many utilities and investors seeking cheap, clean energy. This positions geothermal, with its high upfront exploration and drilling risks, at a competitive disadvantage in power purchase agreements. Consequently, geothermal projects face intensified competition for funding and market share, potentially slowing their adoption rate.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted the geothermal market by causing supply chain bottlenecks and project delays. Lockdowns and restrictions hindered the mobilization of specialized equipment and skilled personnel to remote project sites, stalling development timelines. Additionally, initial economic uncertainty led to temporary delays in final investment decisions for new projects. However, the sector demonstrated resilience, and the long-term drivers for clean energy remained intact, with a recovery propelled by renewed government focus on sustainable economic stimulus packages.
The flash steam plants segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The flash steam plants segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, as they are the most prevalent and technologically mature method for geothermal power generation, especially in high-temperature reservoirs above 180°C. Their operational efficiency and proven track record in converting hydrothermal resources into electricity make them the preferred choice for many developers. The segment's leading position is strengthened by the large amount of high-temperature resources available in well-established geothermal markets, which will help it stay on top in the near future by providing dependable, large-scale power generation.
The drilling equipment segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the drilling equipment segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate. Increased global investment in both new greenfield projects and the expansion of existing geothermal fields directly drives this surge. Drilling represents a major portion of project capital expenditure, and as development accelerates, the demand for advanced, efficient drilling rigs and related services intensifies. Moreover, technological innovations aimed at reducing drilling costs and improving success rates in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) will further propel this segment's expansion.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share. The well-established and extensive geothermal infrastructure in the western states, particularly California and Nevada, anchors this leadership. Supportive regulatory frameworks and state-level renewable portfolio standards consistently drive development. Furthermore, continuous investments in modernizing existing plants and exploring new advanced geothermal technologies solidify the region's dominant position, leveraging its long-standing expertise and significant, high-quality resource base.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to exhibit the highest CAGR, driven by massive untapped potential and escalating energy demand. Countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and New Zealand are aggressively developing their vast geothermal resources to bolster energy security and reduce carbon emissions. Substantial government initiatives, coupled with rising international investments and partnerships, are accelerating project pipelines. This dynamic combination of need, resource availability, and financial backing positions the region for the most rapid market expansion globally.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Geothermal Energy Market include Ormat Technologies, Inc., Calpine Corporation, Enel Green Power S.p.A., Energy Development Corporation, PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy, Kenya Electricity Generating Company PLC, Terra-Gen, LLC, Fervo Energy, Inc., Baker Hughes Company, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., Toshiba Energy Systems & Solutions Corporation, General Electric Company, Atlas Copco AB, Turboden S.p.A., Innergex Renewable Energy Inc., Exergy International S.r.l., Contact Energy Limited, and Landsvirkjun.
In November 2025, PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) announced the launch of the Ulubelu Green Hydrogen Pilot Project, integrating geothermal energy with hydrogen technology to support a low-carbon industry and develop an end-to-end green hydrogen ecosystem.
In October 2025, Ormat Technologies has partnered with SLB to accelerate the development and deployment of integrated geothermal assets, including the next-generation Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). This collaboration aims to make geothermal energy more scalable and commercially viable, addressing the rising energy demand driven by AI and data center needs. The partnership also involves designing and piloting EGS solutions at existing Ormat sites.
In June 2025, Calpine Corporation, in collaboration with MCE, expanded its geothermal capacity by 7 MW at The Geysers geothermal complex, which started powering homes on June 1, 2025. The expansion emphasizes enhanced reliability and community benefits with $50,000 allocated for local green jobs and access to clean energy.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.