2024 年世界轻型、中型和重型商用车展望

中国的强劲销售抵消了北美和欧洲卡车市场的下滑

2023 年，中国和欧洲的 LCV 和 M&HD 卡车销售量出现强劲成长，主要是基数影响较低。其他新兴市场也面临艰难的一年，特别是印度和东盟，轻型商用车销量下降，拉丁美洲的 M&HD 卡车销量在 2023 年大幅下降。在经历了艰难的2022年之后，中国OEM在2023年重新崛起，提高了国内销量，并扩大了在中国以外的足迹，特别是在拉丁美洲和东盟市场，取代了老牌的欧洲和日本OEM。 2023年，中国OEM贡献了全球卡车销售的近三分之一，较上年同期大幅成长。

电动车技术在全球的普及可能会推动商用车产业跨车辆细分市场、重量级别和地区实现更高水准的模组化和平台化，以提供通用利益并降低成本。由于消费者兴趣下降和原材料价格上涨，近期电动车投资的削减可能会在中短期内为价格溢价较低、更容易被消费者接受的替代内燃机汽车提供动力。

预计2024年经济成长将慢于2023年，高利率和通膨上升仍是上半年的挑战。乌克兰和中东的战争以及多个国家的全国选举将增加明年的不确定性和不可预测性。由于产能过剩和过高的运价，北美和欧洲等已开发市场预计 2024 年卡车销量将大幅下降。东协和拉丁美洲等新兴市场预计将在 2023 年经历低迷后，在强劲的宏观环境下强劲反弹。

主要问题

• 影响全球卡车产业的趋势？
• 2023年全球卡车产业规模、细分市场占有率以及各地区主要OEM製造商？
• 预测2024年单位成长，各地区的驱动力为何？
• 各地区主要动力传动系统技术的采用预测如何？
• 2023年顶级OEM製造商以及各地区未来的动力传动系统策略？

目录

小型、中型、大型商用车改造

• 为什么成长如此困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 三大战略重要性对 LCV、MD、HD 卡车产业的影响

成长环境

• 主要调查结果 - 2023 年摘要
• 主要发现 - 2024 年 5 大预测
• 值得注意的法规和义务 - 简介
• 轻型商用车市场的主要趋势
• 轻型商用车市场
• M&HD 卡车市场的主要趋势
• M&HD卡车市场

生态系统

• 调查范围
• 市场区隔

2023 年世界经济展望

• 2024 年十大趋势
• 十大成长机会
• 世界 GDP 成长率 - 由于主要市场失去成长动力，从 2023 年的 3% 温和放缓至 2024 年的 2.6%
• 通膨和利率 - 2024 年下半年，整体通膨持续下降，新兴市场利率转向较低
• 货币趋势－2024年上半年美元将维持强势，2024年第三季起新兴市场货币将受到提振
• 石油市场－第一季OPEC+减产，非OPEC增产
• 劳动市场－失业率温和上升以及对市场情绪的积极预期支持劳动储蓄
• 关键矿产供应－需要经济弹性来加强跨境和跨产业伙伴关係
• 北美 - 由于可自由支配支出下降和利率上升，经济放缓
• 西欧－通膨阻力缓解，成长温和復苏
• 中东—经济市场多元化带来的非石油成长抵消了全球石油市场放缓带来的反弹
• 亚洲－新兴市场推动成长动力，财政措施支持中国经济復苏

成长动力：轻型商用车市场展望

• 市场展望
• 市场预测：按地区/类别
• 轻型商用车OEM销售业绩
• 动力传动系统技术预测
• 主要OEMeLCV发布预测

成长动力：M&HD 卡车市场前景

• 市场预测
• 市场预测：按地区/类别
• M&HD卡车OEM销售记录
• 动力传动系统技术预测
• 主要OEMeM&HD卡车发布预测

成长动力：北美

• 后疫情市场
• 市场前景和顶级参与企业
• 市场容量和动力传动系统总成部门
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长动力：欧洲

• 后疫情市场
• 市场前景和顶级参与企业
• 市场容量和动力传动系统总成部门
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长动力：中国

• 后疫情时代市场
• 市场前景和顶级参与企业
• 市场容量和动力传动系统总成部门
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长动力：印度

• 后疫情时代市场
• 市场前景和顶级参与企业
• 市场容量和动力传动系统总成部门
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长动力：拉丁美洲

• 后疫情时代市场
• 市场前景和顶级参与企业
• 市场容量和动力传动系统总成部门
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长动力：东协

• 后疫情时代市场
• 市场前景和顶级参与企业
• 市场容量和动力传动系统总成部门
• OEM动力传动系统技术平台

成长机会宇宙

• 成长机会1－电动车平台模组化
• 成长机会 2 - 替代 ICE 系统
• 成长机会3—全球供应链重组

最佳实践认证

弗罗斯特雷达

下一步

Strong Sales in China to Compensate for Decline in Truck Market in North America and Europe

Both China and Europe experienced significant growth in LCV and M&HD truck sales in 2023, mainly driven by a low base affect. Other emerging markets faced a challenging year, with India and ASEAN specifically contracting in LCV sales and with LATAM's M&HD truck sales declining substantially in 2023. After a difficult 2022, Chinese OEMs reemerged in 2023 with a boost in domestic sales and a growing footprint outside of China, especially in the LATAM and ASEAN markets, displacing incumbent European and Japanese OEMs. Chinese OEMs contributed to nearly one-third of global truck sales in 2023, a substantial increase from one-fourth of sales the previous year.

The growing proliferation of EV technology globally will drive the CV industry toward a higher level of modularity and platformization across vehicle segments, weight classes, and geographies, to offer common benefits and cut costs. Recent cutbacks in EV investments because of lower consumer interest and higher raw material prices can prove to be a boost to alternate ICE vehicles with lower price premiums that customers can more readily adopt in the short-to-medium term.

Economic growth in 2024 is expected to be slower than in 2023, with high interest rates and rising inflation continuing to be a challenge, certainly in the first half of the year. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, in addition to state elections in several countries, only add to the uncertainties and unpredictability of the year ahead. Advanced markets, such as North America and Europe, are expected to experience a significant decline in truck sales in 2024 because of excess capacity and an underwhelming freight situation. Emerging markets, such as ASEAN and LATAM, are expected to bounce back strongly on the back of stronger macros after a weak 2023.

Key Issues Addressed

• Trends impacting the global truck industry?
• The size of the global truck industry in 2023, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
• Expected volume growth in 2024 and drivers in different regions?
• Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
• Top OEM performers in 2023 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?

Table of Contents

Transformation in Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicles

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Truck Industry

Growth Environment

• Key Findings-A Recap of 2023
• Key Findings-Top 5 Predictions for 2024
• Notable Regulations and Mandates-A Snapshot
• Major Trends in the LCV Market
• LCV Market
• Major Trends in the M&HD Truck Market
• M&HD Truck Market

Ecosystem

• Research Scope
• Market Segmentation

2023 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 10 Trends for 2024
• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Global GDP Growth-Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Markets Lose Growth Momentum
• Inflation and Interest Rates-Headline Inflation Continuing to Decline; H2 2024 Shifting toward Rate Cuts for Developed Markets
• Currency Trajectory-Dollar to Remain Strong in H1 2024; EM Currencies to Get a Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
• Oil Markets-Q1 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; Non-OPEC Production to Rise
• Labor Market-Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
• Critical Minerals Supplies-Need for Economic Resiliency to Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
• North America-Economic Slowdown amid Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
• Western Europe-Moderate Growth Pickup as Inflation Headwinds Ease; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to Take Precedence
• The Middle East-Non-oil Growth from Economic Diversification Limiting the Pullback from a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets
• ASIA-EMs to Drive Growth Momentum; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery

Growth Generator-LCV Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• LCV OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eLCV Launches

Growth Generator-M&HD Truck Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• M&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eM&HD Truck Launches

Growth Generator-North America

• Market Since COVID-North America
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-North America
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-North America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-North America

Growth Generator-Europe

• Market Since COVID-Europe
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-Europe
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-Europe
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-Europe

Growth Generator-China

• Market Since COVID-China
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-China
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-China
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-China

Growth Generator-India

• Market Since COVID-India
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-India
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-India
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-India

Growth Generator-LATAM

• Market Since COVID-LATAM
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-LATAM
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-LATAM
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-LATAM

Growth Generator-ASEAN

• Market Since COVID-ASEAN
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-ASEAN
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-ASEAN
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-ASEAN

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Modularity in EV Platforms
• Growth Opportunity 2-Alternate ICE Systems
• Growth Opportunity 3-Realignment of Global Supply Chains

Best Practices Recognition

• Best Practices Recognition

Frost Radar

• Frost Radar

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• Take the Next Step
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer