市场调查报告书
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2030 年重型商用车市场预测:按车辆类型、燃料类型、最终用户和地区分類的全球分析Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Vehicle Type (Trucks, Buses, Vans and Other Vehicle Types), Fuel Type, End User and By Geography |
根据Stratistics MRC的数据,2024年全球重型商用车市场规模为1,329.8亿美元,预计到2030年将达到2,487.2亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为11.0%。
重型商用车 (HCV) 是主要设计用于运输货物、材料或乘客的机动车辆,车辆总重 (GVW) 通常大于 16 吨。这些车辆包括卡车、拖车、自卸车、巴士和其他大型运输设备。这些车辆根据配置、燃料类型和应用进行分类,重点关注燃油效率、电力传动系统和智慧车队管理系统。
Kenworth 和康明斯表示,配备 X15N 引擎的卡车预计将于 2024 年中期进入批量生产,并于第三季初首次交付。
基础建设发展
道路、桥樑和城市发展等基础建设需要可靠且大容量的车辆。 HCV 在运输水泥、钢材和骨材等原料方面发挥重要作用。政府对智慧城市和农村互联互通的投资进一步增加了对 HCV 的需求。基础设施的改善将促进物流并促进车队扩张。这些因素共同刺激了C型肝炎病毒的生产和销售,推动市场成长。
严格的废气法规
製造商必须投资电动传动系统和排气系统等先进技术,以满足环境标准。由于需要额外的测试和开发,这些法规也导致产品发布的延迟。车队营运商在改装旧车辆以满足新标准时面临财务负担。此外,法规因地区而异,为全球贸易和市场扩张带来挑战。此外,由于违规行为的处罚限制了中小型製造商的进入,市场成长进一步受到限制。
电动和替代燃料汽车
电动和替代燃料汽车减少了对石化燃料的依赖,并降低了车队营运商的营运成本。世界各国政府正透过补贴和税收优惠奖励采用。电池技术和氢燃料电池的进步正在提高性能和续航里程,使其更加实用。工业永续性意识的增强正在推动对环保 HCV 的需求。此外,领先的製造商正在大力投资研发,以扩大其电动和替代燃料汽车产品组合,加速市场成长。
与铁路和海运的竞争
与铁路和海运的竞争将减少重型货物运输对 HCV 的依赖,因为它们提供更高的燃油效率,并能够以更低的成本运输更大的货物量。海上运输对于国际贸易至关重要,可以避免跨境物流中对 HCV 的需求。这两种运输方式对环境的影响都很小,并且符合全球永续性目标。铁路和港口基础设施的投资使道路运输更具吸引力。这种竞争力限制了 HCV 的成长潜力,特别是在拥有强大铁路和海运网络的地区。
COVID-19 的影响
COVID-19 大流行严重扰乱了重型商用车 (HCV) 市场,由于全球工业停工、供应链中断和货运减少,导致需求急剧下降。製造工厂面临关闭,基础设施计划的延误影响了销售。然而,随着电子商务和必需品运输增加了对卡车的需求,市场开始復苏。政府奖励策略和基础设施计划投资进一步推动了该行业的发展。此次疫情也加速了电动和连网型商用车的发展趋势,以提高未来的弹性。
预计卡车行业在预测期内将是最大的。
由于整个行业对货物运输的需求不断增加,卡车在物流和供应链业务中发挥重要作用,预计卡车行业将出现良好的成长。电子商务的扩张进一步推动了对送货卡车的需求,并增加了市场需求。燃油效率、电动动力传动系统和自动驾驶技术的进步使卡车对车队营运商更具吸引力。此外,政府对基础设施发展的投资正在为卡车的采用创造更有利的环境。都市化和建设活动的增加也促进了重型卡车的需求。
预计农业领域在预测期内复合年增长率最高
透过推动对能够处理大量农产品的运输车辆的需求,预计农业领域在预测期内将以最高的复合年增长率增长。 HCV 对于将谷物、蔬菜和牲畜从农场运送到市场和加工厂至关重要。此外,随着农业变得更加机械化,需要更大的车辆来运输大型机械和设备。农业的季节性需求波动也推动了对灵活可靠的商用车辆的需求。
由于快速的都市化、基础设施发展和工业扩张,预计亚太地区在预测期内将占据最大的市场占有率。由于物流、建筑和农业活动的增加,中国、印度和日本等国家正在推动需求。该地区电子商务行业的崛起进一步增加了对高效运输的需求。此外,政府对道路网络和车辆现代化的投资正在推动市场。在中国等国家,转向使用电力和替代燃料的 HCV 也有助于市场扩张,为发展中经济体提供环保的交通解决方案。
由于物流、建筑和电子商务领域的扩张,预计北美在预测期内将呈现最高的复合年增长率。该地区发达的基础设施和不断增长的货运需求是HCV采用率增加的主要因素。技术进步,包括电动车和自动驾驶汽车技术的集成,正在塑造市场的未来。美国和加拿大是HCV的主要生产国,拥有强大的製造能力并有强大的售后服务市场支撑。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market is accounted for $132.98 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $248.72 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 11.0% during the forecast period. Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs) are motor vehicles designed primarily for transporting goods, materials, or passengers and typically have a gross vehicle weight (GVW) exceeding 16 tons. These vehicles include trucks, trailers, tippers, buses, and other heavy-duty transport equipment. They are categorized based on configurations, fuel types, and applications, with advancements focusing on fuel efficiency, electric drivetrains, and intelligent fleet management systems.
According to Kenworth and Cummins, trucks with the X15N engine were planned to enter serial production by mid-2024, with first deliveries in early Q3.
Infrastructure development
Infrastructure development like roads, bridges, and urban development require reliable and high-capacity vehicles. HCVs play a crucial role in moving raw materials such as cement, steel, and aggregates. Governments' investments in smart cities and rural connectivity further boost the need for HCVs. Improved infrastructure facilitates smoother logistics, encouraging fleet expansion. These factors collectively stimulate HCV production and sales, thus fostering the growth of the market.
Stringent emission norms
Manufacturers must invest in advanced technologies such as electric drivetrains and exhaust systems to meet environmental standards, which raises vehicle prices and makes them less affordable for cost-conscious buyers. These regulations also lead to delays in product launches, as additional testing and development are required. Fleet operators face financial strain when retrofitting older vehicles to comply with new norms. Moreover, varying regulations across regions create challenges for global trade and market expansion, while non-compliance penalties limit participation for smaller manufacturers, further restricting market growth.
Electric and alternative fuel vehicles
Electric and alternative fuel vehicles reduce dependency on fossil fuels, lowering operational costs for fleet operators. Governments worldwide are incentivizing adoption through subsidies and tax benefits. Advances in battery technology and hydrogen fuel cells improve performance and range, making them more viable. Growing awareness of sustainability among industries boosts demand for eco-friendly HCVs. Additionally, major manufacturers are investing heavily in R&D to expand their electric and alternative fuel vehicle portfolios, thereby booming the market growth.
Competition from rail and sea transport
Competition from rail and sea transport provides higher fuel efficiency and can carry larger volumes at lower costs, reducing reliance on HCVs for heavy goods movement. Sea transport is crucial for international trade, bypassing the need for HCVs in cross-border logistics. Both modes have lower environmental impacts, aligning with global sustainability goals. Investments in rail and port infrastructure further enhance their appeal over road transport. This competitive edge limits the growth potential of HCVs, especially in regions with robust rail and maritime networks.
Covid-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted the Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV) market, causing a sharp decline in demand due to halted industrial activities, supply chain disruptions, and reduced freight movement globally. Manufacturing facilities faced closures, while delayed infrastructure projects affected sales. However, the market saw recovery as e-commerce and essential goods transportation increased demand for trucks. Governments' stimulus packages and investments in infrastructure projects further boosted the sector. The pandemic also accelerated trends toward electric and connected commercial vehicles for future resilience.
The trucks segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The trucks segment is estimated to have a lucrative growth, due to increased demand for goods transportation across industries, trucks play a vital role in logistics and supply chain operations. E-commerce expansion has further boosted the need for delivery trucks, enhancing the market's demand. Advancements in fuel efficiency, electric power trains, and autonomous driving technologies are making trucks more appealing to fleet operators. Additionally, government investments in infrastructure development are creating a more favourable environment for truck adoption. Rising urbanization and construction activities are also contributing to the demand for heavy-duty trucks.
The agriculture segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The agriculture segment is anticipated to witness the highest CAGR growth during the forecast period, by driving demand for transport vehicles that can handle bulk produce. HCVs are crucial for transporting grains, vegetables, and livestock from farms to markets and processing plants. Additionally, the growth of agricultural mechanization requires heavy-duty vehicles to transport large machinery and equipment. Seasonal demand fluctuations in farming also boost the need for flexible and reliable commercial vehicles.
Asia Pacific is projected to hold the largest market share during the forecast period by rapid urbanization, infrastructure development, and industrial expansion. Countries like China, India, and Japan are leading the demand due to increased logistics, construction, and agriculture activities. The region's rising e-commerce sector further boosts the need for efficient transportation. Additionally, government investments in road networks and initiatives to modernize fleets are driving the market. The shift towards electric and alternative fuel HCVs in countries like China is also contributing to the market's expansion, offering eco-friendly transportation solutions for the growing economy.
North America is projected to have the highest CAGR over the forecast period, owing to the expanding logistics, construction, and e-commerce sectors. The region's well-developed infrastructure and increasing demand for freight transportation are key contributors to the rise in HCV adoption. Technological advancements, including the integration of electric and autonomous vehicle technologies, are shaping the market's future. The U.S. and Canada, with their strong manufacturing capabilities, are leading producers of HCVs, supported by a strong aftermarket services market.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players profiled in the Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market include Daimler Truck AG, Volvo Group, Tata Motors Limited, Scania AB, PACCAR Inc., MAN Truck & Bus SE, Hino Motors, Ltd., Navistar International Corporation, Ashok Leyland, Isuzu Motors Limited, CNH Industrial N.V. (Iveco), BYD Auto Co., Ltd., Hyundai Motor Company, Ford Trucks (Ford Otosan) and Mack Trucks, Inc.
In October 2024, Daimler Truck AG and Volvo Group signed a binding agreement to form a joint venture focused on developing a software-defined vehicle platform for heavy-duty vehicles. This venture aims to set an industry standard for truck operating systems.
In October 2024, Tata Motors Finance entered into a strategic co-sourcing agreement with Bank of India aimed at improving financing accessibility for commercial vehicle owners and fleet operators across India. This partnership seeks to enhance customer experience by leveraging both entities' strengths.
In April 2023, Tata Motors strengthened its 30-year alliance with Cummins Inc. by signing a definitive agreement to manufacture low- to zero-emissions technology products in India. This partnership includes the establishment of TCPL Green Energy Solutions Private Limited to develop sustainable technology products.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.