航空航运业脱碳（2024年）

航空和航运是减排最困难的两个产业，因为它们需要价格具竞争力的能源密集燃料。鑑于这些要求，这两个产业可能都需要结合能源转型技术来实现减排。

汽车业对电动车的需求大幅成长，但航空和航运业的脱碳却落后。这两个行业都设定了大胆的净零目标，以加强减排。然而，根据国际能源总署的说法，这两个领域仍远未实现。

对于商用飞机，重量问题和能量密度限制将电气化限制为短程或混合解决方案。提高永续航空燃料 (SAF) 和氢气等能源密集型替代燃料的产量和成本竞争力是长途航班脱碳的关键。该行业也开始探索直接从大气中捕获碳以抵消总排放量。

航运业处于有利地位，可以充分利用本报告中确定的所有四种能源转型技术。附着在生质燃料和船舶废气上的 CCUS 装置可即时脱碳。从长远来看，船舶可能会被重新设计，以与氢（或氢衍生物）或电力推进系统更相容。然而，这些技术成本高昂，需要大量的政策诱因来鼓励采用。

本报告调查并分析了航空和航运业的脱碳情况，重点介绍了电气化、替代燃料、氢气和碳捕获、利用和储存（CCUS）作为有潜力使这两个行业脱碳的能源转换技术，并评估其适用性。它还提供了这两个行业最大公司排放量揭露的概况。

主要亮点

• 儘管未纳入重要的 2015 年《巴黎协定》，但联合国机构和国际海事组织等组织近年来为航空和航运业制定了大胆的减排目标。
• IEA透露，受疫情影响，民航排放量从2019年的10亿吨二氧化碳减少到2020年的6亿吨二氧化碳。随着年底航班数量的增加，2021 年二氧化碳排放量将增加至 7.2 亿吨。2022 年排放量仍低于疫情前的水平，但预计会出现更广泛的復苏。民航仍是最大的个体排放源，而且这种运输方式的排放量成长最快。
• 同样，儘管大流行导致排放量减少，但航运业在气候目标方面仍然落后。由于红海地缘政治紧张局势加剧导致船舶改道和航线延长，预计 2024 年航运排放量也会增加。
• 飞机和船舶电气化有助于提高效率、消除废气排放并为再生能源的使用创造机会。然而，这两个部门需要密集的能源。由于电池能量密度相对较低，除非能够显着提高效率，否则这两个行业的电气化暂时可能仅限于短途出行。
• 基于生物质的替代燃料提供了一种透过对现有飞机和船舶进行最小改变来实现减排的方法。许多生物燃料，例如可再生柴油和 SAF，也可以与传统燃料混合以逐步减少排放。

目录

• 执行摘要
• 航空和航运的碳排放
• 航空和航运对气候变迁的影响
• 航空和航运领域实现净零排放的进展
• 能量转换技术简介
• 航空、航运四大主要能源转换技术
• 技术：脱碳潜力、阶段、航空和航运适用性
• 能源转换技术的优缺点
• 阻碍脱碳的宏观经济问题
• 航空和海运净零目标和排放
• 航空业净零目标和排放揭露
• 航运业的净零目标和排放揭露
• 航空和航运电气化
• 电气化提供了短途旅行脱碳的潜力
• 航空及航海业案例研究
• 航空和航运替代燃料
• 净零情境下的替代燃料生产
• 国家和公司的 SAF 目标
• 航空及航海业案例研究
• 氢在航空和航运的应用
• 全球氢气生产和交通运输领域的氢气生产
• 航空及航海业案例研究
• CCUS在航空和海运中的应用
• 全球碳捕获能力（2018-2030）
• 航空及航海业案例研究

Aviation and maritime represent two of the most difficult to abate sectors due to their demand for cost-competitive and energy-dense fuels. Due to this requirement, it is likely that both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

While the automotive sector experiences a strong growth in demand for electric vehicles, the aviation and maritime sectors have been slow to decarbonize. To incentivize emission reductions, both sectors have set bold net-zero targets. However, according to the IEA, they remain far off track.

Aviation and maritime represent two of the most difficult to abate sectors due to their demand for cost-competitive and energy-dense fuels. Due to this requirement, it is likely that both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

This report assesses the suitability of electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as energy transition technologies that hold decarbonization potential for both sectors. This report also includes a snapshot of emissions disclosures for both sectors' biggest companies.

For commercial aviation, weight concerns and energy density limitations will restrict electrification to short range or hybrid solutions. Increasing production and cost competitiveness of energy-dense alternative fuels such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and hydrogen will be key to decarbonizing longer-range flights. The sector is also starting to explore direct air carbon capture to offset its overall emissions.

The maritime sector is well placed to capitalize on all four of the energy transition technologies identified in this report. Biofuels as well as CCUS units fitted to ship exhausts can offer immediate decarbonization. In the long term, ships can be redesigned to increase compatibility with hydrogen (or hydrogen derivatives) and electric propulsion systems. However, the costly nature of these technologies will require substantial policy incentives to drive adoption.

Key Highlights

• Although not included in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, recent years have seen organizations such as UN bodies and the International Maritime Organization set bold emission reduction targets for the aviation and shipping sectors.
• The IEA has revealed that the pandemic caused commercial aviation emissions to drop from 1,000Mt CO2 in 2019 to 600Mt in 2020. An increase in flights towards the end of the year saw emissions increase to 720Mt CO2 in 2021. A wider rebound is expected although emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2022. Commercial aviation remains the highest source of individual emissions and this form of transport is experiencing the fastest growth in its emissions.
• Likewise, the maritime sector also remains off track for achieving its climate targets, despite the pandemic driving a drop in emissions. Emissions from shipping are also expected to be boosted in 2024 due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea causing the diversion of ships and the extension of journeys.
• Electrifying aircraft and ships would help to increase efficiency, eliminate tailpipe emissions and create opportunities for using renewable energy. However, these two sectors require high density energy sources. The relatively low energy density of batteries will restrict the electrification of both sectors to short journeys for now, unless significant increases in efficiency can be achieved.
• Biomass-based alternative fuels offer a way of achieving emission reduction while having to make minimal changes to existing aircraft and vessels, with many biofuels such as renewable diesel and SAFs also having the capability to be blended with conventional fuels for gradual emission reduction.

Scope

• Aviation and maritime's current carbon emissions and net-zero goals.
• An overview of four technologies that will be key to decarbonizing both sectors, which include electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS).
• Net-Zero targets and scope 1 and 2 emissions for the largest airlines and shipping companies
• SAF blending targets for countries and airlines
• An assessment of energy transition technologies' suitability for different use cases in aviation and maritime.
• Market forecasts for hydrogen, CCS, renewable fuels.
• A summary of challenges that will hamper the adoption of these technologies by both industries.
• Case studies from companies that are leading both sectors' decarbonization.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends of energy transition technologies within aviation and maritime.
• Develop market insight into current rates of technology adoption in aviation and maritime and the factors that will shape both sectors' decarbonization.
• Identify the companies most active within electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen and CCUS technologies in the aviation and maritime industries.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Aviation and maritime carbon emissions
• Aviation and maritime's contribution to climate change
• Aviation and maritime's progress towards net-zero
• Introduction to energy transition technologies
• Four key energy transition technologies for aviation and maritime
• Technologies by decarbonization potential, stage, and suitability for aviation and maritime
• Advantages and disadvantages of energy transition technologies
• Macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Aviation and maritime net-zero targets and emissions
• Aviation net-zero targets and emissions disclosure
• Maritime net-zero targets and emissions disclosure
• Electrifying aviation and maritime
• Electrification presents decarbonization potential for short journeys
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• Alternative fuels in aviation and maritime
• Alternative fuel production under a net-zero scenario
• National and company SAF targets
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• Hydrogen in aviation and maritime
• Global hydrogen production and hydrogen production for transport sector
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• CCUS in aviation and maritime
• Global carbon capture capacity, 2018 - 2030
• Case studies from aviation and maritime

List of Tables

• Energy transition technology suitability matrix
• Advantages and disadvantages of energy transition technologies
• Airline short term emission targets
• Airline net-zero goals
• Airlines' scope 1 and 2 emissions, 2017 - 2022
• Shipping company net-zero targets
• Shipping companies' scope 1 and 2 emissions, 2018 - 2022
• An overview of national SAF blending mandates
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019 - 2022
• CO2 emissions by transport sub-sector in 2022
• Carbon emissions from aviation and net zero scenario, 2000 - 2030
• Carbon emissions from shipping and net zero scenario, 2000 - 2030
• The top four energy transition technologies for aviation and maritime
• Five macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Top companies by mentions of electric aircraft in company filings, 2018 - Feb 2024
• Renewable diesel and SAF production capacity, 2021 - 2030
• FAME biodiesel production capacity, 2021 - 2030
• Global low carbon hydrogen capacity, 2021 - 2030
• Low carbon hydrogen production for transport end-use sector, 2021 - 2030
• Global CCS capacity, 2021 - 2030