全球汽车市场展望（2025 年）：按车型、推进类型和地区划分

Global Automotive Outlook- 2025 by Vehicle Type (Hatchback, Sedan, SUV, MPV, Vans, Pick-Ups/Light Trucks), Propulsion Type (ICE, Hybrid & Electric), and Region (China, India, North America, Europe, Rest of Asia, Rest of the World)

出版日期: 2025年01月09日 | 出版商:

MarketsandMarkets | 英文 65 Pages | 订单完成后即时交付

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预计2024年全球轻型车销量将达8,400万辆，2025年将达8,510万辆，2024年至2025与前一年同期比较增1.3%。

由于多种因素，汽车市场预计将成长。汽车产业正在快速发展，以适应客户需求和不断发展的技术前沿，例如 5G、人工智慧和自动驾驶。电动车的采用是见证汽车产业快速变化的关键因素。在电动车领域，开发和製造远距电池以及为客户安装高速和超快速充电点是OEM和电动车解决方案提供商的首要任务。

此外，增强的安全功能、先进自动化的自动驾驶以及透过 5G 增强的连接性正在改变汽车市场的趋势。此外，OEM正致力于透过利用千兆广播技术和开发电动滑板平台来缩短车辆上市时间，这将加快车辆设计和製造的速度，提高成本和时间效率，并加强品管。

线上二手车销售市场在全球范围内也拥有很大的市场价值。 2024年，全球二手车销售量接近1,846万辆。然而，汽车零件的线上销售预计将在2025年大幅成长。

在预测期内，纯电动车销售量预计将保持停滞，而插电式混合动力车细分市场预计将引领两个市场的销售成长。政府对电动车补贴的减少趋势是成长放缓的一个主要因素。此外，美国新川普政府预计将审查对电动车的各种补贴，预计将对全球纯电动车供应链和市场产生类似的影响。然而，混合动力汽车并不完全依赖电池，不会因为内燃机的存在而让客户担心续航里程，并且与纯电动车相比，在满油箱或电池充电时具有更长的续航里程，预计将出现正增长。这是混合动力汽车销售成长的主要因素。

由于对安全性、舒适性和驾驶便利性的需求不断增加，预计自动驾驶汽车将在 2025 年大幅成长。特斯拉已推出 i.Robotaxi 和 Robovans 等自动驾驶汽车。中国已成为自动驾驶汽车商业化的领导者。中国有超过 19 个城市正处于不同阶段引入自动驾驶汽车用于公共交通。

近年来，中国电动车企业轻型商用车出口稳定成长。中国OEM正在稳步扩大在欧洲和南美的业务。这些地区对商用车的需求很高，其中欧洲对电动商用车的需求尤其高。欧洲OEM能够部分满足这一市场，但价格相对较高。中国OEM可以以更具竞争力的价格分布在续航里程、功能和排放气体方面提供巨大价值。

由于高净值人士（HNI）的快速成长，特别是在亚太地区，豪华车细分市场的销售量出现了适度成长。在这一领域，劳斯莱斯、梅赛德斯和捷豹等公司的电动车已经出现，并开始提供更先进的豪华功能。由于电动车配备了大量感测器并由软体操作，OEM可以透过一系列功能等为用户提供更优质、个性化和豪华的体验。

亚太地区正成为全球汽车产业一个充满前景的市场。中国市场是这一趋势的主要驱动力。中国市场已发展成为全球最大的汽车生产国和购买国，并已成为电动车和电池主要电动车技术发展的关键驱动力。印度、日本和韩国也是该地区重要的各国市场。印度正逐渐成为汽车产业的主要贡献者，而日本和韩国已经确立了地位。据OICA称，中国和印度每年生产超过3000万辆汽车。儘管汽车销售情况相对黯淡，但亚洲地区的汽车产量将在 2023 年和 2024 年出现成长。如果这种趋势持续下去，到 2025 年，亚洲将主导市场。

此外，中国也是对汽车产业原料供应、製造、销售等方面控制力最强的国家。中国拥有最强大的电动车电池供应链。超过50%的电动车电池在中国製造，约75%的电动车电池零件也在中国製造。这些中国製造商正在寻求扩大其服务并在全球范围内占领更多市场占有率。

该报告审视了全球汽车市场，包括2024年汽车行业趋势、2025年影响汽车行业的因素、内燃机汽车（ICE）和电动汽车（EV）、自动驾驶汽车，并涵盖了广泛的主题，包括5G 连接、智慧製造以及二手车市场概览。从区域来看，我们涵盖北美、欧洲、亚太等地区。

The global light vehicle sales were 84.0 million units in 2024 and are projected to reach 85.1 million units in 2025, witnessing a YoY growth of 1.3% from 2024 to 2025. The automotive market is expected to experience growth driven by various factors. The automotive industry is rapidly evolving to adapt to customer demands and ever-evolving frontiers of technologies like 5G, AI, and Autonomous Driving. The adoption of electric vehicles is the key factor that has witnessed a rapid change in the automotive industry. In line with the EV sector, the development and manufacturing of long-range batteries and the installation of fast and ultra-fast charging points for customers is the foremost agenda of the OEMs and EV solution-providing companies.

Further, the introduction of autonomous driving and enhanced connectivity via 5G with enhanced safety features and higher level of automation is shifting the trends in the automotive market. Moreover, OEMs are focused on reducing the time to markets of the vehicle by using gigacasting technology and developing EV skateboard platforms, which makes designing and manufacturing of cars faster, cost and time-efficient, and enhances quality control.

In addition, the online sales of used cars market also has a large market value around the world. Close to 18.46 million units of used cars were sold in 2024 globally. However, the online sales of auto components is expected to have a very significant growth in 2025.

"EV sales grows at a slower pace while hybrids race ahead."

The BEV sales are expected to have slower growth and PHEV segments is expected to lead the sales growth between the two market during the forecast period. There has been a trend of methodical reduction in government subsidies of EVs which is considered to be a major or driving the sluggish growth rate. Also, the new incoming trump administration in US is expected reconsider various subsidies on EVs which is further expected to create similar effects in global BEV supply chains and market. However, the hybrid cars are expected to see positive growth as they are not completely dependent on battery and the presence of IC engine ensures no range anxiety to the customer, and also they provide larger range on full tank and battery charge compared to BEVs. This is the major factor contributing to the growth sales of hybrid.

"Autonomous vehicles are anticipated to witness significant growth in 2025."

Autonomous vehicles are projected to grow significantly in 2025 due to the rising demand for safety, comfort, and driving convenience features. Tesla has showcased it's autonomous vehicles i.e. Robotaxi and Robovans. China has established itself to be the leader in commercialising autonomous vehicles on it's streets. There are more than 19 chinese cities that are in various stages of implementing autonomous vehicles for public transportation.

"Chinese EV firms are increasing their focus on E-LCV segments for global market ."

Chinese EV firms have seen a steady increase in export of Electric Light commercial vehicles over past years. Chinese OEMs have steadily increased there present in Europe and South America. These regions have significant demand for commercial vehicles and especially in Europe there is a large demand for E-Commercial vehicles. European OEMs have been partially able to cater to this market but at a relatively higher price point. Chinese OEMs are able to provide large value in terms of Range, features and emissiona at a more competitive price point.

"Luxury segment is being re-defined by Electric Vehicles"

The luxury car segment has seen a decent rise in sales, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, due to the fast-growing High Net worth Individuals (HNI) in the region. With the advent of EVs in this segment likes of Rolls-Royce, Mercedes, Jaguar etc have started to offer a higher degree of luxury features as EVs due to presence of large number of sensors and being operated by softwares to a large degree provides OEMs a large scope for more premium, personalised luxurious experience to the user via a large number of features etc.

"Asia Pacific holds the largest market share in the forecast period"

Asia Pacific has emerged as a promising market for the global automobile industry. The principal driver of this trend is the Chinese market, which has grown to become the world's largest producer and buyer of automobiles and emerged as a key player in the development of key EV technologies vis-a-vis Electric Vehicles and Batteries. India, Japan, and South Korea are also important country-level markets in the region. While India is gradually becoming a major contributor in the automotive sector, Japan and South Korea are already well-established. According to OICA, China and India produce over 30 million vehicles each year. Despite a relatively challenging scenario vis-a-vis vehicle sales, the Asia region has seen growth in automobile production in 2023 and 2024. Continuing this trend, the Asia region will dominate the market in 2025.

Further, China is the most dominant nation in the automotive industry with respect to supplying raw materials, manufacturing, and sales. China has the most powerful supply chain of EV batteries. Over 50% of the EV batteries are manufactured in China, and around 75% of the components of EV batteries are also manufactured in China. These Chinese manufacturers are looking to expand their services and acquire additional market share around the world.

Furthermore, the market growth in Asia Pacific can be attributed to the high vehicle production and increased use of advanced electronics in Japan, South Korea, and China. The governments of these countries have recognized the growth potential of the automotive sector and have consequently undertaken various initiatives to encourage major OEMs to enter their domestic markets. Several global automobile manufacturers, such as Volkswagen (Germany), Mercedes Benz (Germany), and General Motors (US), have shifted their production plants to emerging economies in the region.

In addition, being the most populous region, Asia-Pacific also holds the largest share of the used cars market. The per capita GDP of the people here is favorable for the growth of the used cars market. The spending capacity of the people in this region has grown gradually with the rise in foreign investments and setup in manufacturing plants in this region.

Research Coverage:

The market analysis encompasses the Global Automotive Market Outlook, focusing on the sales volume of light vehicles. Additionally, it examines the developments in the automotive industry in 2024. The report delves into the trends propelling the automotive sector, analyzing factors influencing the industry in 2025. The study encompasses a broad range, including Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles and Electric Vehicles (EVs), autonomous vehicles, 5G connectivity in cars, smart manufacturing, and an overview of the used cars market. Geographically, the report covers North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World.

Report Scope

The report will help market leaders and new entrants in this market with information on the closest approximations of the sales numbers for the automotive market in 2024 and their subsegments. This report will help stakeholders understand the competitive landscape and gain more insights to better position their businesses and plan suitable go-to-market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the market pulse and provides information on key market drivers, restraints, challenges, and opportunities.

The report provides insights on the following pointers:

Analysis of key Trends in 2024 and 2025 (Rise in Hybrid Vehicle Sales, Stability in vehicles sales in 2025, Online component sales expected to boom, Luxury vehicle sales rise and emergence integrated powertrains ).
Product Development/Innovation: Detailed insights on upcoming technologies, research & development activities, and new product & service launches in the automotive market
Market Development: Comprehensive information about lucrative markets - the report analyses the automotive market across varied regions
Market Diversification: Exhaustive information about diversification of supply chains, untapped geographies, recent developments, and investments in the automotive market
Competitive Assessment: Assessment of market shares, growth strategies and service offerings of leading players like across light vehicle segments which are then dirther divided into ICE and electric among others in the automotive market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the autonomous vehicle market and provides them information on key market drivers, challenges, and opportunities.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY