低排放汽车市场 - COVID-19 的增长、趋势、影响和预测 (2023-2028)

今年低排放汽车市场价值 1260 亿美元。

预计在未来五年内将达到 2920 亿美元，并有望在预测期内保持 15% 的复合年增长率。

主要亮点

• COVID-19 大流行迫使大约 95% 的汽车公司停业。 在全球范围内，封锁的影响是巨大的，製造活动的暂停在汽车行业是前所未有的。 然而，随着经济活动的恢復和全球汽车产量的增加，市场再次回暖。
• 从中期来看，政府支持电动汽车发展的政策和扩大电动汽车充电基础设施的计划预计在预测期内仍将是市场的强劲推动力。 几个地方政府已宣布计划在未来几年内使电动汽车占新车销量的一定比例。
• 2020 年电动汽车销量将达到创纪录的 300 万辆，比 2019 年增长 40%。 这种强劲的增长与全球汽车市场的放缓形成鲜明对比，全球汽车市场由于 COVID-19 危机导致整体汽车销量下降了 16%。 经过十年的快速增长，道路上行驶的电动汽车已超过 1000 万辆，约占全球汽车保有量的 1%。 至于 2030 年，我们预测到 2050 年，在净零排放情景下，将有 3 亿辆电动汽车上路，占新车销量的 60% 以上（2020 年仅为 4.6%）。 2021 年销售的早期市场数据表明主要市场的快速增长。
• 由于需要满足未来的能源需求，电动汽车 (EV) 市场正在经历显着增长。 实现可持续交通的需求对于推动电动汽车的需求至关重要。
• 电动汽车市场正在成为汽车行业不可或缺的一部分。 电动汽车提供了一条实现能源效率同时减少污染物和其他温室气体排放的途径。 对环境的日益关注和积极的政府举措是推动市场增长的主要因素。 不断上升的能源成本和新兴能源效率技术之间的竞争也有望推动市场增长。

低污染汽车市场趋势

有利的政府政策和监管规范有望推动市场

• 电动汽车销售仍受政策法规的严重影响。
• 这在很大程度上取决于环境。 10个主要电动汽车普及国家（中国、美国、挪威、德国、日本、英国、法国、瑞典、加拿大、荷兰等）均实施了各种政策促进电动汽车销售。 主要例子包括公共采购计划、促进电动汽车生产和采购的财政激励措施，以及降低使用成本（例如免费停车）。
• 市场还受到各种行政级别监管政策的推动，例如根据燃油效率标准和废气性能限制车辆分配。
• 例如，Bharat Stage (BS) 标准旨在通过减少尾气污染物的允许量来加强监管。 例如，2017 年推出的 BS-IV 允许 50ppm 的硫，但从 2020 年开始适用的新 BS-VI 将允许 10ppm 的硫、80mg 的 NOx（柴油）和 4.5% 的颗粒物. mg/km，碳氢化合物和NOx加起来只允许170mg/km。
• 凭藉 FAME 和 FAME II 政策，印度为投资者和製造商提供了一个有吸引力的选择来建立电动汽车工厂，从而加速绿色汽车的采用。 许多城市和国家正在改革公共交通，补贴正在用电动公交车取代 ICE 公交车。 例如，到2021年，印度公共交通系统中将有近1000辆电动公交车。 孟买拥有 246 辆电动公交车，在全国处于领先地位。
• 泰国在全国安装了 1000 个充电站。 其中一项重大举措是到 2022 年底拥有 53,000 辆电动摩托车出租车，到 2025 年底拥有 5,000 辆电动公交车。 亚洲开发银行和 Energy Absolute 签署了一项 4800 万美元的绿色贷款，用于资助泰国的全国电动汽车充电网络。
• 马来西亚宣布了其国家低碳城市 2030 计划，其中包括在全国建立 200 个低碳区，从而进一步推广电动汽车等替代性绿色交通方式。它可能成为 它还计划到2030年建设2.5万个公共充电站和10万个私人充电站。

中国最具增长潜力

• 随着快速城市化，中国决心减少道路交通车辆排放的污染物。 同时，它打算减少对进口碳氢化合物的依赖并支持其工业部门的发展。 中国是世界上最大的电动汽车生产国和消费国。 国内需求受到国家销售目标、有利的立法、补贴和市政空气质量目标的支撑。 例如
• 中国是世界上最大的电动汽车产业。 作为最大的电动汽车生产国，2021年中国电动汽车产量将达到350万辆，同比增长1.6倍。 电动汽车市场年收入达到约1022亿美元，为亚太地区最高。
• 中国实施了一项配额，要求製造商在 100% 电动或混合动力汽车的新车销量中至少占 10%。 此外，一些主要城市和省份正在施加越来越严格的限制。 例如，北京每月仅发放1万辆内燃机汽车登记证，以鼓励居民改用电动汽车。 通过这些措施，中国对国内电动汽车发展提出了坚定乐观的前景，有望带动市场。
• 为提高电动汽车采用率而出台的政府法规，以及该地区 OEM 和供应商为满足中国汽车行业不断增长的需求而采取的强劲扩张，将在预测期内推动市场增长。预计会创造一个光明的前景外表。 例如：
• 中国政府鼓励人们使用电动汽车。 该国已经计划逐步淘汰为当前一代拖拉机和建筑设备提供动力的柴油。 该国计划到 2040 年完全禁止柴油和汽油汽车。
• 在过去三年中，深圳为城市货运部署了近 60,000 辆轻型卡车和麵包车，约占城市货运车队总数的 35%。
• 基于上述发展，预计低污染车辆在预测期内将显着增长。

低污染汽车市场竞争者分析

• 低排放汽车市场的特点是既有老牌企业，也有小型初创企业。 目前也有很多区域性玩家集中在特定区域。 由于来自国内外市场的乘用车和电动巴士订单不断增加，比亚迪正在被研究为该市场的主要参与者。 2018年公司乘用车销量227,152辆，销量居中国所有企业之首。 比亚迪还收到了广州总计 4,473 辆电动公交车的投标。 其他主要参与者包括特斯拉、戴姆勒、大众汽车、丰田汽车、福特和吉利集团。
• 2022 年 4 月，意大利经济发展部公布了政府拨给汽车基金的 6.5 亿财政资源，到 2030 年将提供总额为 87 亿欧元（93.4 亿美元）的资金。它已宣布规定为 2022-2023-2024 年每年分配欧元（6.99 亿美元）。 购买电动、混合动力、插电式和内部加热车辆的奖励仅授予个人。 一小部分资金留给汽车共享公司购买电动、混合动力和插电式汽车。
• 加拿大政府于 2022 年 5 月制定了销售义务，保证到 2035 年销售的所有新小型汽车都将是 ZEV。 政府在该项目上投资高达 5.29 亿加元（4.23 亿美元）

其他好处

• Excel 格式的市场预测 (ME) 表
• 三个月的分析师支持

内容

第1章介绍

• 调查先决条件
• 调查范围

第2章研究方法论

第 3 章执行摘要

第4章市场动态

• 市场驱动因素
• 市场製约因素
• 搬运工 5 力分析
  • 新进入者的威胁
  • 买方/消费者议价能力
  • 供应商的议价能力
  • 替代品的威胁
  • 竞争公司之间的敌对关係

第 5 章市场细分（基于价值的市场规模：10 亿美元）

• 车辆类型
  • 乘用车
  • 商用车
• 汽车模型
  • 混合型
  • 轻度混合
  • 纯电动汽车
• 地区
  • 北美
    • 美国
    • 加拿大
    • 墨西哥
    • 其他北美地区
  • 欧洲
    • 德国
    • 英国
    • 法国
    • 意大利
    • 西班牙
    • 其他欧洲地区
  • 亚太地区
    • 印度
    • 中国
    • 日本
    • 韩国
    • 其他亚太地区
  • 世界其他地区
    • 巴西
    • 沙特阿拉伯
    • 阿拉伯联合酋长国
    • 南非

第6章竞争格局

• 供应商市场份额
• 公司简介
  • Tesla Inc.
  • BYD Auto Co., Ltd.
  • Volkswagen AG
  • Mercedes-Benz Group AG
  • Hyundai Motor Company
  • Toyota Motor Corporation
  • Tata Motors Limited
  • BMW AG
  • AB Volvo

第7章 市场机会与今后动向

The low-emission vehicle market is valued at USD 126 billion in the current year. The market is expected to reach USD 292 billion by the next five years, registering a CAGR of 15% in revenue during the forecast period.

Key Highlights

• During the lockdowns, the COVID-19 pandemic compelled about 95% of all automotive companies to put their workforces on hold. Globally, the repercussions of the lockdown have been immense and unprecedented in the automotive sector due to the halt of manufacturing activities. However, the market has regained momentum as economic activities resume and vehicle production also rises worldwide.
• Over the medium term, Government policies to support the growth of electric vehicles and plans to enlarge the electric vehicle charging infrastructure are expected to remain prominent market drivers during the forecast period. Several regional governments have announced their plans to have a certain portion of their new vehicle sales be electric in the upcoming few years.
• Electric car sales reached a record 3 million in 2020, up 40% from 2019. This strong growth was a stark contrast to general car market sluggishness globally, with overall car sales down 16% due to the COVID-19 crisis. After a decade of rapid growth, over 10 million electric cars are on the road, representing ~1% of the global car stock. For 2030, the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario projects 300 million electric cars on the road, accounting for over 60% of new car sales, compared with only 4.6% in 2020. Early market data for 2021 sales suggests rapid growth in significant markets.
• The electric vehicle (EV) market witnessed significant growth due to the need to address future energy requirements. The need to attain sustainable transportation is vital in driving electric vehicle demand.
• The electric vehicle market is becoming an integral part of the automotive industry. It represents a pathway toward achieving energy efficiency, along with reduced emissions of pollutants and other greenhouse gases. Increasing environmental concerns and favorable government initiatives are some of the major factors driving the market growth. Rising energy costs and competition among emerging energy efficiency technologies are also expected to fuel the market growth.

Low-Emission Vehicle Market Trends

Favorable Government Policies and Regulatory Norms are Expected to Drive the Market

• The sales of electric vehicles are still majorly driven by the polic
• y environment. The ten leading countries (such as China, United States, Norway, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Canada, and the Netherlands) in electric vehicle adoption have a range of policies in place to promote the sales of electric vehicles. Primary examples of these programs and initiatives are public procurement programs, financial incentives to facilitate EV production and acquisition, and cutting their usage cost (e.g., by offering free parking).
• A variety of regulatory policies at different administrative levels, such as fuel-economy standards and restrictions on the circulation of vehicles based on emissions performance, are also driving the market.
• For instance, Bharat Stage (BS) norms aim at tighter regulations by reducing the permissible level of tailpipe pollutants. For example, BS-IV - introduced in 2017, allowed 50 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur, while the new and updated BS-VI - applicable from 2020, allows only ten ppm of sulfur, 80 mg of NOx(Diesel), 4.5 mg/km of particulate matter, 170 mg/km of hydrocarbon and NOx together.
• With its FAME and FAME II policies, India is providing attractive options for investors and manufacturers to set up EV plants in the country to propel the country toward a faster adoption of green vehicles. Public transportation across many cities and countries is being reviewed, and subsequently, through subsidies, Electric buses are replacing ICE buses. For instance, in 2021, there were close to one thousand electric buses used in public transport in India. With 246 e-buses, Mumbai ranked the top in the country.
• Thailand has 1,000 charging stations across the country. One of their primary efforts is to have 53,000 electric motorcycle taxis and 5,000 electric buses on the road by the end of 2022 and 2025, respectively. The Asian Development Bank and Energy Absolute have signed a USD 48 million green loan to fund Thailand's nationwide electric vehicle charging network.
• The announcement of Malaysia's National Low Carbon Cities 2030 plan includes the creation of 200 low-carbon zones around the country, which might result in a more significant push for green transportation alternatives, including electric vehicles. Malaysia also intends to construct 25,000 public and 100,000 private charging stations by 2030.

China Is Expected To See Highest Growth

• With rapid urbanization, China is determined to reduce the polluting emissions from its road transport vehicles. At the same time, it also intends to reduce the country's dependence on hydrocarbon imports and support the development of the industrial sector. China is the largest manufacturer and consumer of electric vehicles in the world. National sales targets, favourable laws, supportive subsidies, and municipal air-quality targets are supporting domestic demand. For instance,
• China has by far the biggest electric vehicle industry in the world. As the largest EV manufacturer, China's EV production amounted to 3.5 million units in 2021, an increase of 1.6 times year-over-year. Revenues from the electric vehicle market reached approximately 102.2 billion U.S. dollars for the year, the highest in the Asia-Pacific region.
• China imposed a quota on manufacturers for 100% electric or hybrid vehicles, which must represent at least 10% of total new sales. Additionally, some major cities and provinces are imposing increasingly stringent restrictions. For instance, Beijing only issues 10,000 permits for registering combustion-engine vehicles per month to encourage its inhabitants to switch to electric vehicles. These measures are leading China to formulate resolute and optimistic prospects for the development of electric vehicles in the country, which is expected to drive the market.
• The growing government regulations improving electric vehicle adoption and robust expansion adopted by OEMs and suppliers in the region to accommodate rising demand from the automotive industry in China are expected to create a positive outlook for market growth during the forecast period. For instance,
• The government of China is encouraging people to adopt electric vehicles. The country has already made plans to phase out diesel fuel, which runs the current generation of tractors and construction equipment. The country is planning to ban diesel and petrol vehicles completely by 2040.
• In the last three years, nearly 60,000 light trucks and vans have been deployed for urban freight movement in Shenzhen, representing approximately 35% of the city's overall fleet of urban delivery vehicles.
• With the above-mentioned developments, low-emission vehicles are witnessing significant growth during the forecast period.

Low-Emission Vehicle Market Competitor Analysis

• The market for low-emission vehicles is characterized by the presence of both established companies and small start-ups. There are also a large number of regional players currently focusing on specific geographies. BYD is a major player in the market studied, owing to its growing orders for passenger cars and electric buses from domestic and international markets. The company sold 227,152 passenger vehicles in 2018, the highest among all companies in China. BYD also received an order to build 4,473 electric buses for Guangzhou city under the tender of a total of 4,810 electric buses. Other major companies are Tesla, Daimler, Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corporation, Ford, and Geely Group.
• In April 2022, the Ministry of Economic Progress, Italy announced the provision to allocate EUR 650 million (USD 699 million) for each of the years 2022-2023-2024, which falls within the resources allocated by the Government to the Automotive Fund for which a total financial endowment of EUR 8.7 billion (USD 9.34 billion) has been provided until 2030. Incentives for purchasing electric, hybrid, plug-in, and endothermic vehicles are granted only to individuals. A small percentage of the funds is reserved for car-sharing companies to purchase electric, hybrid, and plug-in vehicles.
• The Canadian government established a sales mandate in May 2022 to guarantee that all new light-duty vehicle sales are ZEVs by the year 2035. The Government is investing up to CAD 529 million (USD 423 million) into this project

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET DYNAMICS

• 4.1 Market Drivers
• 4.2 Market Restraints
• 4.3 Porters 5 Force Analysis
  • 4.3.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.3.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
  • 4.3.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.3.4 Threat of Substitute Products
  • 4.3.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION (Market Size by Value - USD billion)

• 5.1 Vehicle Type
  • 5.1.1 Passenger Car
  • 5.1.2 Commercial Vehicles
• 5.2 Type
  • 5.2.1 Hybrid
  • 5.2.2 Mild Hybrid
  • 5.2.3 Pure Electric Vehicle
• 5.3 Geography
  • 5.3.1 North America
    • 5.3.1.1 United States Of America
    • 5.3.1.2 Canada
    • 5.3.1.3 Mexico
    • 5.3.1.4 Rest of North America
  • 5.3.2 Europe
    • 5.3.2.1 Germany
    • 5.3.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.3.2.3 France
    • 5.3.2.4 Italy
    • 5.3.2.5 Spain
    • 5.3.2.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.3.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.3.3.1 India
    • 5.3.3.2 China
    • 5.3.3.3 Japan
    • 5.3.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.3.3.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.3.4 Rest of the World
    • 5.3.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.3.4.2 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.3.4.3 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.3.4.4 South Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Vendor Market Share
• 6.2 Company Profiles*
  • 6.2.1 Tesla Inc.
  • 6.2.2 BYD Auto Co., Ltd.
  • 6.2.3 Volkswagen AG
  • 6.2.4 Mercedes-Benz Group AG
  • 6.2.5 Hyundai Motor Company
  • 6.2.6 Toyota Motor Corporation
  • 6.2.7 Tata Motors Limited
  • 6.2.8 BMW AG
  • 6.2.9 AB Volvo

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS