菲律宾可再生能源市场：市场份额分析、行业趋势和统计数据、成长预测（2026-2031 年）

菲律宾可再生能源市场在 2025 年的价值为 12.15 吉瓦，预计将从 2026 年的 14.45 吉瓦成长到 2031 年的 34.37 吉瓦，在预测期（2026-2031 年）以 18.91% 的复合预测期（2026-2031 年）以 18.91% 的复合年增长率增长。

政策强制推行的投资组合标准、太阳能和风能发电成本的下降、零售电价的上涨以及新建燃煤发电厂建设的禁令，共同加速了菲律宾从火力发电向新能源的转型。儘管煤炭在2022年仍占电力供应的60%，但在气候投资基金（CIF）提供的5亿美元优惠资金支持下，提前退役的燃煤电厂将取代900兆瓦的老旧发电容量，并为新的绿色计划腾出空间。併网型资产，特别是ACEN的600兆瓦巴丹太阳能发电厂和Solar Philippines的3.5吉瓦Terra太阳能综合体，正获得先发优势并吸引机构资本。同时，企业购电市场蓬勃发展，资料中心和24小时运作流程外包（BPO）园区纷纷签署长期购电协议，以对冲菲律宾地区最高的零售电费。

菲律宾可再生能源市场趋势与洞察

可再生组合标准（RPS）和上网电价补贴（FIT）

2024年，可再生能源配额标准将重设为11%，预计2030年将提高到35%，届时配电公司必须从清洁能源生产商购买三分之一的电力。虽然上网电价补贴政策曾帮助早期计划启动，但最新的绿色能源竞标计画已成为主要的采购管道，2024年已授予3.4吉瓦的装置容量。储能竞标计划于2025年进行。能源监理委员会（ERC）于2024年6月发布的通告取消了大部分外资所有权限制，并简化了伙伴关係结构。 《创造、改革和能源法案》（CREATE Act）规定的七年所得税免税期，以及之后10%的税率，增强了财政竞争力，使菲律宾成为东南亚最有利于新建可再生能源项目的地区之一。

对太阳能和风能发电设施的投资减少

自2010年以来，全球太阳能组件价格已下降89%，伊罗戈斯北省和邦阿西楠省大型太阳能发电厂的平准化度电成本（LCOE）已降至每千瓦时披索菲律宾比索以下。 ACEN的巴丹电厂将于2024年第四季投入运作，电价低于每瓦0.60美元，比国内历史基准价格低25%。同时，美国国家再生能源实验室（NREL）预测，随着浮体式平台技术的成熟，到2050年离岸风力发电成本将降至每兆瓦时34美元。製造商天合光能和维斯塔斯正在将双面组件和5兆瓦以上的风力发电机组整合到菲律宾供应链中，加速效率提升。

拥挤的电网和有限的输电能力

在规划的258个输电计划中，截至2024年仅有75个完工，另有58个项目延期长达九年。 TransCo公司估计，拥塞将使终端用户电费增加披索/千瓦时，这将在很大程度上抵消可再生能源的成本优势。能源监管委员会（ERC）延长了第三组资本支出冻结期，导致2吉瓦太阳能和风能併网合约被冻结，预计2024年北伊罗戈走廊的非离峰时段时段弃电率将达到12%。

细分市场分析

水力发电仍是山区电力供应的基础，预计2025年将占菲律宾装置容量的41.20%。菲律宾水力发电可再生能源市场预计将透过现有水坝的维修和扩建而扩大，但其成长速度低于太阳能和风能。受圣贝纳迪诺和东维萨亚斯潮汐能和波浪先导工厂运作的推动，海洋能预计到2031年将以114.2%的复合年增长率增长。如果浮体式平台被证明具有商业性可行性，这一细分领域可望改变沿海电力供应格局。根据美国国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）的研究，菲律宾拥有42.86吉瓦的离岸风力发电技术潜力，其中93%适合采用浮体式风力涡轮机。这表明，一旦成本与陆上标准趋于一致，离岸风电将在长期内占据主导地位。

菲律宾的太阳能发电发展稳步推进。光是ACEN的Terra Solar计划（菲律宾太阳能计画的一部分）预计装置容量就将超过4吉瓦，随着吕宋岛电网的不断完善，这将巩固岛上的领先地位。风力发电厂主要集中在伊罗戈斯-帕奈走廊沿线，该地区季风平均风速可达每秒7.5公尺。地热发电量稳定在约1.5吉瓦，巴克曼地区的现有井正在升级改造为双回圈。生质能源的贡献小规模，而以360兆瓦的卡拉延水电站为代表的抽水蓄能发电则扮演重要的平衡角色。然而，自2010年以来，尚无新的专案完成资金筹措。整体而言，多样化的新增装置容量增强了可再生能源产业应对能源供应和燃料价格波动的能力。

菲律宾可再生能源市场报告按技术（太阳能、风力发电、水力发电、生质能源、地热能和海洋能）和最终用户（公共产业、商业和工业以及住宅）进行细分。市场规模和预测以装置容量（吉瓦）为单位。

其他福利：

• Excel格式的市场预测（ME）表
• 3个月的分析师支持

目录

第一章 引言

• 研究假设和市场定义
• 调查范围

第二章调查方法

第三章执行摘要

第四章 市场情势

• 市场概览
• 市场驱动因素
  • 可再生能源促进标准（RPS）和上网电价补贴（FIT）
  • 太阳能和风力发电机资本支出（CAPEX）呈下降趋势
  • 电力需求不断成长，零售价格高企
  • 来自业务流程外包/资讯科技中心的企业间购电协议（PPA）
  • 日本国际协力机构资助的输电网强化计划
  • 抗灾岛屿微电网项目
• 市场限制
  • 拥挤的电网和有限的输电能力
  • 区域经济特区竞标监理方面的不确定性
  • 颱风相关保险费用上涨
  • 与土地改革区相关的土地使用纠纷
• 供应链分析
• 监管环境
• 技术展望（混合式、浮体式、储能式）
• 波特五力模型
  • 新进入者的威胁
  • 供应商的议价能力
  • 买方的议价能力
  • 替代品的威胁
  • 竞争对手之间的竞争
• PESTEL 分析

第五章 市场规模与成长预测

• 透过技术
  • 太阳能（光伏和聚光太阳能）
  • 风力发电（陆上和海上）
  • 水力发电（小规模、大型、抽水蓄能）
  • 生质能源
  • 地热
  • 海洋能源（潮汐能和波浪能）
• 最终用户
  • 电力公司
  • 商业和工业
  • 住宅

第六章 竞争情势

• 市场集中度
• 策略性措施（併购、合资、资金筹措、购电协议）
• 市场占有率分析（主要企业的市场排名和份额）
• 公司简介
  • Aboitiz Power Corporation
  • ACEN Corporation
  • Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings Inc.
  • Vena Energy
  • First Gen Corporation
  • Energy Development Corporation（EDC）
  • SN Aboitiz Power Group
  • Alternergy Holdings Corp.
  • Trina Solar Co. Ltd.
  • Vestas Wind Systems A/S
  • Solenergy Systems Inc.
  • Solaric Corp.
  • National Power Corporation（NPC-PSALM）
  • Philippine Geothermal Production Company Inc.
  • Meralco PowerGen Corp.
  • Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
  • Nexif Energy
  • Kepco Philippines Holdings
  • Enfinity Global Inc.
  • Sharp Energy Solutions

第七章 市场机会与未来展望

The Philippines Renewable Energy Market was valued at 12.15 gigawatt in 2025 and estimated to grow from 14.45 gigawatt in 2026 to reach 34.37 gigawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 18.91% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

Policy-mandated portfolio standards, falling solar and wind equipment costs, rising retail tariffs, and a moratorium on new coal plants are collectively accelerating the shift away from thermal generation. Coal still supplied 60% of electricity in 2022; yet, imminent retirements backed by USD 500 million of concessional capital from the Climate Investment Funds will displace 900 MW of aging capacity, creating headroom for new green projects. Grid-ready assets, notably ACEN's 600 MW Bataan solar farm and Solar Philippines' 3.5 GW Terra Solar complex, are capturing first-mover scale advantages and attracting institutional capital. At the same time, the corporate power-purchase market is booming as data centers and 24/7 business-process outsourcing campuses sign long-term offtake contracts to hedge against the country's region-leading retail tariffs.

Philippines Renewable Energy Market Trends and Insights

Renewable Portfolio Standards & Feed-in Tariffs

The Renewable Portfolio Standard was reset to 11% in 2024 and is expected to increase to 35% by 2030, forcing distribution utilities to contract a third of their supply from clean generators. Feed-in tariffs helped seed initial projects; however, the latest Green Energy Auction Program rounds are now the principal procurement channel, with 3.4 GW awarded in 2024, and storage-linked bids are scheduled for 2025. The Energy Regulatory Commission's June 2024 circular removed most foreign-ownership caps, simplifying partnership structures. Seven-year income-tax holidays followed by a 10% rate under the CREATE Act sharpen fiscal competitiveness, placing the Philippines among Southeast Asia's most favorable jurisdictions for greenfield renewables.

Declining Solar-PV & Wind Turbine Capex

Global module prices have fallen by 89% since 2010, pushing utility-scale solar levelized costs below PHP 2.50/kWh in Ilocos Norte and Pangasinan. ACEN's Bataan plant commissioned in 4Q 2024 at under USD 0.60 per watt, 25% under the prior domestic benchmark, while NREL projects offshore-wind costs sliding to USD 34 /MWh by 2050 as floating-platform learning curves mature. Manufacturers Trina Solar and Vestas are integrating bifacial modules and turbines exceeding 5 MW into the Philippine supply chain, accelerating efficiency gains.

Grid congestion & limited transmission capacity

Only 75 of 258 planned transmission projects were completed by 2024, leaving 58 schemes delayed up to nine years. TransCo estimates that congestion adds PHP 0.80/kWh to end-user bills, nullifying much of the cost advantage of renewables. ERC's deferral of Group 3 capex frozen interconnection for 2 GW of solar and wind contracts, and curtailment in the Ilocos Norte corridor reached 12% during off-peak hours in 2024.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rising Electricity Demand & High Retail Tariffs
2. Corporate PPAs from BPO/IT Hubs
3. Regulatory Uncertainty around CREZ Auctions

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Hydropower accounted for 41.20% of the installed capacity in 2025 and remains the cornerstone of electricity generation in mountainous regions. The Philippines' renewable energy market size for hydropower is expected to expand as retrofits upgrade existing dams, although growth is moderate compared to solar and wind additions. Ocean energy, while starting from a negligible baseline, is projected to compound at a rate of 114.2% per year through 2031, thanks to tidal and wave pilot plants in San Bernardino and Eastern Visayas. This niche could transform coastal supply if floating platforms prove commercially viable. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory maps 42.86 GW of offshore wind technical potential, 93% of which is suited for floating turbines, indicating long-term marine dominance once costs converge with onshore benchmarks.

The expansion of solar energy in the Philippines is relentless; ACEN's Solar Philippines' Terra Solar projects alone will surpass 4 GW when Luzon's power grid is reinforced, thereby solidifying Luzon's dominance. Wind farms cluster along the Ilocos and Panay corridors where monsoon speeds average 7.5 m/s. Geothermal output remains steady at about 1.5 GW, with binary-cycle upgrades at Bacman leveraging existing wells. Bioenergy plays a modest role, and pumped storage, exemplified by the 360 MW Kalayaan plant, supplies vital balancing; however, no new schemes have reached financial close since 2010. Overall, diversified additions underpin the new renewable industry's resilience against fluctuations in energy supply and fluctuations in fuel prices.

The Philippines Renewable Energy Market Report is Segmented by Technology (Solar Energy, Wind Energy, Hydropower, Bioenergy, Geothermal, and Ocean Energy) and End-User (Utilities, Commercial and Industrial, and Residential). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Aboitiz Power Corporation
2. ACEN Corporation
3. Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings Inc.
4. Vena Energy
5. First Gen Corporation
6. Energy Development Corporation (EDC)
7. SN Aboitiz Power Group
8. Alternergy Holdings Corp.
9. Trina Solar Co. Ltd.
10. Vestas Wind Systems A/S
11. Solenergy Systems Inc.
12. Solaric Corp.
13. National Power Corporation (NPC-PSALM)
14. Philippine Geothermal Production Company Inc.
15. Meralco PowerGen Corp.
16. Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
17. Nexif Energy
18. Kepco Philippines Holdings
19. Enfinity Global Inc.
20. Sharp Energy Solutions

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Renewable Portfolio Standards & Feed-in Tariffs
  • 4.2.2 Declining Solar-PV & Wind Turbine Capex
  • 4.2.3 Rising Electricity Demand & High Retail Tariffs
  • 4.2.4 Corporate PPAs from BPO/IT Hubs
  • 4.2.5 Grid Upgrades via JICA-funded Projects
  • 4.2.6 Disaster-resilient Island & Micro-grid Programs
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Grid Congestion & Limited Transmission Capacity
  • 4.3.2 Regulatory Uncertainty around CREZ Auctions
  • 4.3.3 Typhoon-driven Insurance Cost Escalation
  • 4.3.4 Land-use Conflicts with Agrarian Reform Lands
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook (Hybrid, Floating, Storage)
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry
• 4.8 PESTLE Analysis

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Technology
  • 5.1.1 Solar Energy (PV and CSP)
  • 5.1.2 Wind Energy (Onshore and Offshore)
  • 5.1.3 Hydropower (Small, Large, PSH)
  • 5.1.4 Bioenergy
  • 5.1.5 Geothermal
  • 5.1.6 Ocean Energy (Tidal and Wave)
• 5.2 By End-User
  • 5.2.1 Utilities
  • 5.2.2 Commercial and Industrial
  • 5.2.3 Residential

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, JVs, Funding, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global-level Overview, Market-level Overview, Core Segments, Financials, Strategic Information, Products & Services, Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Aboitiz Power Corporation
  • 6.4.2 ACEN Corporation
  • 6.4.3 Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings Inc.
  • 6.4.4 Vena Energy
  • 6.4.5 First Gen Corporation
  • 6.4.6 Energy Development Corporation (EDC)
  • 6.4.7 SN Aboitiz Power Group
  • 6.4.8 Alternergy Holdings Corp.
  • 6.4.9 Trina Solar Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.10 Vestas Wind Systems A/S
  • 6.4.11 Solenergy Systems Inc.
  • 6.4.12 Solaric Corp.
  • 6.4.13 National Power Corporation (NPC-PSALM)
  • 6.4.14 Philippine Geothermal Production Company Inc.
  • 6.4.15 Meralco PowerGen Corp.
  • 6.4.16 Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
  • 6.4.17 Nexif Energy
  • 6.4.18 Kepco Philippines Holdings
  • 6.4.19 Enfinity Global Inc.
  • 6.4.20 Sharp Energy Solutions

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment
• 7.2 Developing Floating PV Parks in Calm Backwaters