开发废旧电动汽车电池的回收解决方案

插电式电动汽车 (PEV) 销量预计将在 2022 年达到 1040 万辆，并在 2030 年加速至 5700 万辆，全球市场份额为 47%。 随着PEV的销售，对PEV电池的需求也将增加。 越来越多的 PEV 电池最终将达到其使用寿命，需要替代垃圾填埋处理，这违反了环境目标、法规和政策。 电池再生（回收）被认为是废旧 PEV 电池的可行解决方案。 这是一项环境可持续的广泛战略，政府和行业可以通过减少对少数国家控制的材料开采和精炼的依赖来减少国际供应炼和地缘政治风险，从而实现目标。

预计到 2030 年，北美小型电动汽车销量将达到 660 万辆，电动汽车再製造电池的可回收率达到 95% 至 98%，新电池被认为是将这些材料保持在闭环供应链中的战略解决方案它们可以投入生产。 假设至少 10 年使用寿命，到 2031 年，美国将有近 667,000 个 PEV 电池（即 2021 年销售的 PEV 数量）可再生。

在本报告中，我们分析了全球电动汽车和废旧电池再生解决方案的发展趋势、PEV市场前景（PEV销量、PEV电池产量、可回收PEV电池的潜在数量）、潜在商业模式概述建立 PEV 电池回收市场、关键激励措施和法规，以确保废旧 PEV 电池的安全清除、排放、处理和运输到回收设施。我们将收集和提供以下信息。

内容

前言

背景

推荐

PEV 销量上升：需要电池

全球电动汽车销量：过去 5 年显着增长

电动汽车销售推动全球电池需求

电池市场规模：它将如何影响美国电动汽车销售？

美国和加拿大的电池需求：供应可能跟不上

美国电动汽车电池再製造市场增长前景

电动汽车电池再生过程：多重优势

电动汽车电池再生材料的评估

复製成本的合理性

废旧电动汽车电池的运输

未来电池成本将决定与再製造电池的竞争

法规、政策和商业模式：对回收市场的影响

电动汽车生态系统的创新者：需要考虑闭环电池供应链

核心充电：电动汽车电池可能会出现问题

回收商可能会为废旧电池付费

製造商可能承担收集废旧电池的费用

租赁电池的可能性

其他激励措施和法规的必要性

Plug-in EV (PEV) sales, which reached 10.4 million in 2022, are projected to accelerate to 57 million vehicles by 2030, a global market share of 47%. Demand for PEV batteries will increase in parallel with PEV sales. An increasing number of PEV batteries will eventually reach the end of their useful life and require an alternative solution to being discarded into landfills, which violates environmental goals, policies, and regulations. Recycling is considered a viable solution for end-of-life PEV batteries. It is environmentally sustainable and it meets broad government and industry strategic goals of mitigating international supply chain and geo-political risks by decreasing reliance on material extraction and refinement dominated by a handful of countries.

North American light duty PEV sales are estimated to reach 6.6 million units by 2030 and PEV battery recycling is viewed as a strategic solution to keep these materials in a closed-loop supply chain in which 95% to 98% of key battery materials are recoverable and can be directed into new battery production. Assuming a minimum 10-year lifespan, nearly 667,000 PEV batteries—the number of PEVs sold in 2021—will be available for recycling in the US by 2031.

This Guidehouse Insights report presents forecasts for future PEV sales, PEV battery production, and the potential volume of PEV batteries available for recycling. It includes an overview of potential business models for establishing a PEV battery recycling market and identifies key incentives and regulations that could ensure the safe removal, discharge, handling, and transportation of end-of-life PEV batteries to recycling facilities. 

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

PEVs Sales Are On The Rise and They Need Batteries

Global EV Sales Have Grown Significantly in the Last Five Years

EV Sales Drive Global Battery Demand

What Does the Battery Market Size Mean for US EV Sales?

US and Canada Battery Demand Could Lag Supply

The EV Battery Recycling Market in the US Is Forecast to Grow

The EV Battery Recycling Process Has Multiple Benefits

Valuing Materials from EV Battery Recycling

Justifying Recycling Costs

Transporting Used EV Batteries

Future Battery Costs Will Determine Competition with Recycled Batteries

Regulations, Policies, and Business Models Affect the Recycling Market

EV Ecosystem Innovators Must Consider the Closed-Loop Battery Supply

Chain

Core Charges Could Be Problematic for EV Batteries

Recyclers Could Pay for End-of-Life Batteries

Manufacturers Could Pay for Collecting End-of-Life Batteries

Batteries Could Be Leased

Other Incentives and Regulations Are Needed

List of Tables

Potential Recyclable Commodity Value by Type of Battery Composition

List of Figures

• EV Sales, Percentage of Vehicles Sales, and Number of EV Batteries Available for Recycling, Worldwide, 2022-2031
• Global BEV and PHEV Sales by Region, Worldwide, 2022-2031

GWh of Battery Production in 2022 and Battery Capacity Needed for 2030 Battery Demand

• EV Sales, Percentage of Vehicles Sales, and Number of EV Batteries Available for Recycling, US, 2022-2031

Cathode Supply Chain

US EV Battery Demand for Stated Policies, Sustainable Development, and Average Scenarios with a Range of EV Batteries Available for Recycling: Low (25%), Base (50%), and High (75%)

EV Recycled Batteries as a Percentage of 2025 and 2030 Base and High Production Levels for High (75%), Base (50%), and Low (25%) EV Battery Recycling Scenarios

Lifecycle of an EV Battery: Refurbishing and Re-Introduction into the Manufacturing Process

Hydrometallurgy Extraction and Cathode Production Process

Hydro-to-Cathode Extraction and Production Process

Recycling Facilities and State Regulatory Environments

IRA Stipulations for Raw Mineral Battery Composition Requirements from the US or Countries with an FT