开放 vRAN 全球市场 (2024年 9月)

Open vRAN Market Report, September 2024

出版日期: 2024年09月17日 | 出版商:

Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 请询问到货日

价格

简介目录

本报告深入探讨了无线存取网路 (RAN) 虚拟化和去中心化，从基本的RAN功能虚拟化 (vRAN) 到Open RAN等新的开放架构- 遵循 TIP Initiative 和 O-RAN 联盟规范，减少对传统供应商提供的专用RAN设备的依赖- 分析各种想法。vRAN细分资料是根据现有RAN市场规模及其预测来推断的，依地区分为2G/3G/4G和5G、vCU/vDU和RU，以及也考虑室内DAS替代需求的可能性。本报告涵盖了广泛且新兴的供应商生态系统。最后，因为Open RAN 95%以上都是vRAN，称这个市场为Open vRAN。

2024年上半年：商业开发活动普遍疲弱
- 整体而言，2024年上半年的发展好坏参半
- 供应商领导委员会几乎没有变化：只有排名前四的公司在交换地位
- NEC 和Samsung是 RU主要供应商Fujitsu和Rakuten Symphony主导 CU/DU
测试、检验和认证工作不断扩大，RFP/RFI 迅速增加
- 最初处于领先地位的Orange、Telefonica 和 TIM 采取观望态度。

市场低迷也将持续一年，但2025年将是突破之年：你准备好起飞了吗？

由于 AT&T 部署，估计2024年下半年将显着成长，2024年第一季的预测不变
2025年将是全球转型的一年
- 开放式 vRAN 在全球传统 RAN 销售的渗透率：从2024年的4.6%到2029年的29%
- 亚太地区目前是全球最大的开放 vRAN 市场，但美国经历重大觉醒。
- 在投资 Open RAN 的国家中，美国的目标是占据国际主导地位
- 因此，2025年 RAN 在北美的销售渗透率将达到20%，到2029年将达到 58%
- 几乎所有商业 Open RAN 网路都将在软体中运行 RAN 功能
- vRAN 和 Open RAN：两种不同的配置
- Dish 和 Rakuten Mobile 将云端 RAN 推向黄金时段
- 最后，应该指出的是，Open RAN 最初是一种非虚拟架构。

虽然开放 vRAN 復兴开始，但生态系统的可持续性面临压力

虽然老问题依然存在，但反对派的主张依然坚定不移
同时，庞大的Open RAN 生态系统不断发展、整合、重建和资本化。
- 早期的Open RAN 采用者采用了多供应商方法
- 目前正受到这场復兴的棕地采用者和建筑师的攻击
- 在这个5G高峰已经过去的时代，一级CSP被爱立信和诺基亚庞大的5G足迹所锁定
- 现阶段，主要的1 级 CSP 尝试采取与 AT&T 相同的做法，并严重依赖单一主要供应商进行开放式 vRAN 部署。
- 因此，整合和重组进行中。
- OREX：创建 Rakuten Symphony 的复製
以上都是华为被排除的直接结果
- 在世界上大多数国家，禁止中国供应商的使命已经完成
- 国际合作正处于顶峰
- 这导致产生了区域/国家层面的一系列措施

开放式 vRAN：一般中立主机和室内用例的有力候选者，特别是作为 DAS 的替代品

世界各地的中立主机公司转向 Open RAN 和 Open vRAN 作为其工具包中的新架构
目前基于 C-RAN 的DAS 架构为 Open vRAN 升级提供了许多机会
- 2026年，室内 Open vRAN/Open DAS 市场将超过室内 DAS
- 私人无线网路目前仍然是一个开放的vRAN 利基市场，但 90%的大型企业安装都是传统 RAN
- 但随着 DAS 替代品转移到较小的地点，Open vRAN 最终将渗透到中小企业领域
- 室内 5G 覆盖：vRAN 的驱动力

简介目录

This report takes a deep dive into the virtualization and disaggregation of radio access networks and analyzes the various schools of thoughts ranging from basic virtualization of RAN functions (vRAN) to new open architectures such as open RAN, following the TIP initiative and the O-RAN Alliance specifications, designed to cut the dependency on proprietary RAN equipment supplied by the traditional vendors. The vRAN segment is taken from our existing RAN size and forecasts and broken down by 2G/3G/4G versus 5G, as well as by vCU/vDU and RU for each region, and also looks at the potential for indoor DAS replacement. The report covers a wide emerging ecosystem of vendors. Lastly, as more than 95% of open RAN deployments are vRAN, we call this market open vRAN.

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: 1H24 DOWN YOY BUT THE FUTURE IS LOOKING UP!

THE OPEN RAN/VRAN MARKET WANED IN 1H24

1H24 WAS MARKED BY A WEAK COMMERCIAL DEPLOYMENT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BOARD
- Overall, 1H24 was a mixed bag of deployment pockets
- Little has changed in the vendor leadership board, just musical chairs in the top 4
- NEC and Samsung are the top RU suppliers while Fujitsu and Rakuten Symphony lead CU/DU
TRIALS, TESTING AND CERTIFICATION EFFORTS KEPT SWELLING, AND RFP/RFI SURGED
- Initially in the driver's seat, Orange, Telefonica and TIM have adopted a wait and see attitude

THE MARKET LULL EXTENDS FOR ANOTHER YEAR AND 2025 WILL BE THE TRIGGER YEAR, READY FOR TAKEOFF?

IN 2H24, WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP FROM THE AT&T ROLLOUT, WHICH HAS NOT CHANGED OUR FORECAST UPDATED 1Q24
2025 WILL BE THE GLOBAL SWITCH YEAR
- The open vRAN penetration of the global traditional RAN sales is expected to hit 29% in 2029, up from 4.6% in 2024
- So far, Asia Pacific is the world's largest open vRAN market but the U.S. is awakening in a big way
- Among the countries ploughing money into open RAN, the U.S. is pushing for gLobal dominance
- Consequently, North America is poised to hit the 20% RAN sales penetration bar in 2025 and reach 58% 2029
- Openness, scalability and innovation remain the 3 chief drivers
- We believe nearly all commercial open RAN networks will be running RAN functions on software
- vRAN and open RAN are 2 different configurations
- DISH and Rakuten Mobile bring cloud RAN to prime time
- Finally, it's worth noting that open RAN started as a NON-VIRTUAL architecture

WHILE THE OPEN VRAN RENAISSANCE BEGINS, THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ECOSYSTEM IS UNDER PRESSURE

AS SOME OLD CHALLENGES REMAIN, THE NAYSAYERS STICK TO THEIR GUNS
IN THE MEANTIME, A VAST OPEN RAN ECOSYSTEM KEEPS DEVELOPING, CONSOLIDATING, RESTRUCTURING, AND RECAPITALIZING
- The early greenfield open RAN adopters embraced the multi-vendor approach...
- ...which is now under attack by the brownfield adopters and actors of this renaissance
- In this post 5G peak era, Tier 1 CSPs are locked in with abundant 5G footprints from Ericsson and Nokia
- At this stage, large Tier 1 CSPs seem inclined to do what AT&T is doing and lean heavily on a single big supplier for their open vRAN deployments
- Consequently, consolidation and restructuring are chugging along
- OREX: the creation of a Rakuten Symphony clone
ALL OF THE ABOVE IS THE DIRECT CONSEQUENCE OF THE HUAWEI BAN
- For most of the world, the mission to ban the Chinese vendors is accomplished...
- ...And international cooperation is at its best
- This also drove the creation of a flurry of regional and national initiatives

OPEN VRAN IS A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR NEUTRAL HOST, INDOOR USE CASES IN GENERAL, AND AS A DAS REPLACEMENT IN PARTICULAR

NEUTRAL HOST COMPANIES ACROSS THE WORLD ARE LOOKING AT OPEN RAN AND OPEN VRAN AS A NEW ARCHITECTURE IN THEIR TOOL KIT
CURRENT C-RAN-BASED DAS ARCHITECTURES OFFER PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPEN VRAN UPGRADES
- In 2026, the indoor open vRAN/open DAS market will surpass indoor DAS
- Private wireless networks remain an open vRAN niche for now but 90% of large enterprise installations are traditional RAN
- However, as DAS replacement shifts to smaller venues, open vRAN will eventually penetrate the SME space at some point
- Indoor 5G coverage is the vRAN driving force

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