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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1949535
润滑油市场-全球产业规模、份额、趋势、机会及预测(依集团、基础油、产品类型、最终用户、地区及竞争格局划分,2021-2031年)Lubricants Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Group, By Base Stock, By Product Type, By End User, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F |
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全球润滑油市场预计将从 2025 年的 1,293.3 亿美元成长到 2031 年的 1,649.7 亿美元,复合年增长率为 4.14%。
润滑剂是摩擦学物质,通常为液体或油脂形式,旨在减少摩擦、散热并防止运动表面之间的磨损和腐蚀。推动市场成长的关键因素包括强劲的工业化进程、重型机械维护需求的不断增长以及汽车製造业的稳定扩张。国际汽车製造商协会(OICA)报告称,全球汽车产量将在2023年达到9,350万辆,这将为汽车生产带来巨大的润滑油需求。
| 市场概览 | |
|---|---|
| 预测期 | 2027-2031 |
| 市场规模:2025年 | 1293.3亿美元 |
| 市场规模:2031年 | 1649.7亿美元 |
| 复合年增长率:2026-2031年 | 4.14% |
| 成长最快的细分市场 | 重型机械 |
| 最大的市场 | 亚太地区 |
然而,由于全球汽车产业向电动车的快速转型,市场面临着巨大的挑战。与内燃机不同,电动动力传动系统所需的润滑油种类更少、类型更专一,从而有效降低了对传统机油的长期需求。这种技术转型,加上润滑油耐久性的提高和换油週期的延长,对传统润滑油产品的需求持续成长构成了结构性障碍。
新兴经济体的快速工业化和製造业成长是全球润滑油市场的主要驱动力。随着开发中国家向工业主导经济转型,液压系统、涡轮机和金属加工机械的安装和运作蓬勃发展,对工业流体的需求量庞大。这一趋势在亚洲尤为显着,其产量增速已超过已开发地区。联合国工业发展组织(工发组织)预测,到2023年第四季度,中国、印度和印尼的製造业年产量成长率预计将超过4%,这将直接推动液压油、齿轮油和金属加工液的消费,而这些油品对于提高营运效率至关重要。
同时,基础设施建设和建设活动的活性化推动了对重型润滑油的需求。从住宅开发到公共工程等大型计划都需要挖土机和起重机等土木机械,而这些设备需要专用的机油和润滑脂来承受其所面临的严苛负荷。根据美国人口普查局2024年6月的报告,美国今年前四个月的建筑支出达到6,355亿美元,比去年同期成长10.9%,证实了售后市场需求的稳定。在这种竞争激烈的市场环境下,大型供应商主导着分销管道。例如,壳牌公司在2024年11月确认,其维持了全球最大成品润滑油供应商的地位,并在2023年占据了11.6%的市场份额。
电动车的加速转型为润滑油市场的销售成长带来了明显的挑战。随着汽车製造商越来越重视电动动力传动系统而非内燃机,对传统机油的需求显着降低。电动车无需曲轴箱润滑油,而曲轴箱润滑油传统上占汽车润滑油总消耗量的大部分。这直接缩小了传统润滑油产品大规模生产的潜在市场。
这一趋势也受到电动交通市场份额不断增长的推动。国际能源总署(IEA)预测,到2024年,全球电动车销量将达到1,700万辆,这标誌着能源技术正从依赖石化燃料的模式转型为更有效率的模式。非燃油汽车数量的显着增长,加上润滑油耐久性技术的进步延长了保养週期,抑制了对传统润滑油的需求,并导致市场最大细分领域出现结构性萎缩。
在循环经济模式下,再生基础油的广泛应用从根本上重塑了价值链,将废油视为关键原料而非废弃物。这一趋势不同于传统的产能扩张,它优先考虑减少碳排放和降低对新原油炼製的依赖,强调现有资源的回收。大型能源公司正积极采用先进的再生炼油技术,生产与传统产品品质相当的高纯度基础油。例如,道达尔能源于2024年7月收购了芬兰的Tekoil A/S公司,该公司拥有5万吨的年再生基础油产能,此次收购显着提升了道达尔能源的循环业务能力。
同时,可再生能源领域对高性能润滑油的激增需求,正在催生一个专注于满足绿色发电技术需求的高价值市场细分领域。风力发电机等设备在不稳定的负载和恶劣的环境条件下运作,需要使用专门的合成配方来确保可靠性,并最大限度地减少因高昂维护成本造成的停机时间。这种对运作效率的关注正在推动高端润滑油的应用。正如《今日印度製造》2024年10月刊所指出的,克鲁勃润滑油公司实施的特种润滑油和效率提升计划已为其客户节省了超过44.5万兆瓦时的能源。
The Global Lubricants Market is projected to expand from USD 129.33 Billion in 2025 to USD 164.97 Billion by 2031, registering a compound annual growth rate of 4.14%. Lubricants are tribological substances, typically in fluid or grease form, designed to lower friction, disperse heat, and prevent wear and corrosion between moving surfaces. The primary factors fueling this market growth include robust industrialization, rising maintenance needs for heavy machinery, and the steady expansion of the automotive manufacturing sector. Highlighting this demand, the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers reported that global motor vehicle production hit 93.5 million units in 2023, creating a significant requirement for automotive fluids to support such output.
| Market Overview | |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2027-2031 |
| Market Size 2025 | USD 129.33 Billion |
| Market Size 2031 | USD 164.97 Billion |
| CAGR 2026-2031 | 4.14% |
| Fastest Growing Segment | Heavy Equipment |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific |
However, the market faces a substantial obstacle due to the global automotive industry's rapid shift toward electric vehicles. Unlike internal combustion engines, electric powertrains require fewer and distinct types of fluids, effectively reducing the long-term volumetric demand for traditional engine oils. This technological transition, coupled with improvements in fluid durability that allow for extended drain intervals, presents a structural barrier to the continued volume growth of conventional lubricant products.
Market Driver
Rapid industrialization and the growth of the manufacturing sector in emerging economies act as a foundational driver for the global lubricants market. As developing nations transition toward industrial-led economies, there has been a surge in the installation and operation of hydraulic systems, turbines, and metalworking machinery, necessitating large volumes of industrial fluids. This trend is particularly strong in Asia, where production output exceeds that of developed regions; according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, manufacturing sectors in China, India, and Indonesia saw annual output increases surpassing 4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, directly driving the consumption of hydraulic fluids, gear oils, and metalworking fluids essential for operational efficiency.
Concurrently, rising infrastructure development and construction activities are boosting the demand for heavy-duty lubricants. Major projects, ranging from residential complexes to public utilities, rely on earthmoving equipment like excavators and cranes, which require specialized engine oils and greases to endure extreme loads. The U.S. Census Bureau reported in June 2024 that construction spending in the United States reached $635.5 billion during the first four months of the year, a 10.9% increase over the same period in 2023, ensuring steady aftermarket demand. In this competitive landscape, major suppliers dominate distribution; Shell plc, for instance, confirmed in November 2024 that it retained its status as the leading global finished lubricant supplier with an 11.6% market share in 2023.
Market Challenge
The accelerated transition toward electric vehicles presents a distinct challenge to the volumetric growth of the lubricants market. As automotive manufacturers increasingly prioritize electric powertrains over internal combustion engines, the necessity for traditional engine oils diminishes significantly. Electric units eliminate the need for crankcase oil, which has historically accounted for a large portion of total automotive lubricant consumption, thereby directly reducing the addressable market for high-volume conventional products.
This trend is reinforced by the growing market share of electrified transport. The International Energy Agency projected that global electric car sales would reach 17 million units in 2024, signaling a robust shift away from fossil-fuel-dependent technologies. This substantial rise in non-combustion vehicles, combined with advancements in fluid durability that extend service intervals, constrains the volumetric demand for standard lubricants and leads to a structural contraction in the market's largest segment.
Market Trends
The rising utilization of re-refined base oils within circular economy models is fundamentally reshaping the supply chain by valuing used oil as a critical feedstock rather than waste. This trend differs from traditional capacity expansion by prioritizing the regeneration of existing resources to lower carbon footprints and reduce reliance on virgin crude refining. Major energy companies are actively adopting advanced re-refining technologies to create high-purity base stocks that match the quality of conventional products; for example, TotalEnergies significantly expanded its circular capabilities in July 2024 by acquiring Tecoil, a Finnish facility capable of producing 50,000 tons of re-refined base oils annually.
Simultaneously, the surging demand for high-performance lubricants in renewable energy sectors is creating a high-value market segment tailored to the technical needs of green power generation. Assets such as wind turbines, which operate under erratic loads and harsh environmental conditions, require specialized synthetic formulations to ensure reliability and minimize costly maintenance downtime. This focus on operational efficiency is driving the adoption of premium fluids; as noted by Manufacturing Today India in October 2024, Kluber Lubrication's implementation of specialized lubricants and efficiency programs resulted in energy savings exceeding 445,000 MWh for its clients.
Report Scope
In this report, the Global Lubricants Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:
Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Lubricants Market.
Global Lubricants Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report: