印度商用车的成长机会

替代动力传动系统和新商业模式带来变革

印度的卡车运输业涵盖多种车辆、营运商和物流服务，是经济成长和发展的关键驱动力。经过多年实施轴载法规和巴拉特第 6 阶段排放法规后，该行业面临销量下滑，而 COVID-19大流行进一步加剧了这种下滑。不过，该产业目前正处于復苏和成长阶段。 2022 年卡车总出货为 87 万辆。市占率最大的仍是轻型卡车细分市场，2022 年销量为 56 万辆，其次是重型卡车细分市场，销量为 22 万辆，中型卡车细分市场销量为 9 万辆。巴拉特马拉（Bharatmala）重点关注道路基础设施、萨加马拉（Sagarmala）重点关注港口现代化、综合性国家物流政策和国家基础设施管道等关键倡议，开发支出高，卡车部署需求高，预计将推升

儘管柴油价格急剧上升，但中型卡车领域的压缩天然气 (CNG) 卡车销量仍在成长，占动力传动系统总量的 27.8%。 CNG价格调整将促进销售。专用液化天然气 (LNG) 的政策可能会增加卡车中液化天然气的使用，特别是在重型卡车领域，因为液化天然气提供与柴油类似的更长续航里程和性能。主要原始OEM正在展示 LNG 模型作为原型，预计将于 2024 年推出。卡车电动将从轻型卡车开始，针对最后一英里的运营，并随着充电基础设施和购买成本的改善而扩展到其他领域。在中央和州政府的补贴下，商用车的电动将会进一步加强。此外，OEM还可享有生产连结奖励计画(PLI)。第三方参与者和OEM增加连接和远端资讯处理解决方案正在改善客户的车队管理，但预计将有进一步的监管。印度商用车产业的整体成长轨迹可能会保持强劲。

目录

战略问题

• 为什么成长如此困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 三大战略问题对印度商用车产业的影响
• 成长机会是Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）

调查范围

• 分析范围
• 产品/动力传动系统总成细分
• 调查的目的和目的
• 本次调查回答的关键问题

成长环境

• 政府振兴印度经济的重要倡议
• 推动印度商用车市场的主要趋势
• 卡车应用概述
• 印度货运类别和类型
• 印度卡车生态系统
• 2022 年全球商用车概况
• 2023年OEM形势
• 法规与政策，2023-2027 年展望
• 电动车(EV)奖励与补贴，2023 年

成长机会分析

• 主要成长指标
• 预测标准
• 印度商用车市场的成长动力
• 印度商用车市场成长抑制因素

应用和行业前景

• 卡车销售：依用途分类
• 宅配、快递、小包裹（CEP）物流
• 耐久性消费品、零售、电子商务
• 快消品、药品、文件
• 道路建设/房地产
• 规划的道路建设
• 水果、蔬菜、牛奶
• 农产品

过去的销售业绩

• LD卡车销售週期
• 2018-2022年LD卡车市场占有率对比
• MD卡车销售週期
• 2018-2022年MD卡车市场占有率比较
• 高清卡车销售週期
• 2018-2022年高清卡车市场占有率比较

销量和动力传动系统总成预测

• 2022-2035年印度商用车销售预测
• LD卡车销售预测
• LD卡车动力传动系统总成预测
• MD卡车销售预测
• MD卡车动力传动系统总成预测
• 高清卡车销量预测
• HD 卡车动力传动系统总成预测
• 预测讨论

替代燃料生态系统

• LNG
• CNG
• 交通运输业NG
• 氢生态系统

卡车技术系统

• 卡车技术蓝图
• 机舱人体工学
• 燃油效率提升，2021-2035

安全/远端资讯处理系统

• 卡车安全系统
• 采用卡车安全系统，2022-2035 年
• 卡车远端资讯装置量
• 卡车远端资讯市场占有率
• 卡车远端资讯处理的特点：按OEM
• 卡车远端资讯装置量预测

OEM简介

• 塔塔汽车 - OEM简介
• 塔塔汽车 - OEM型号，2023 年
• Ashok Leyland - OEM简介
• Ashok Leyland - OEM型号，2023 年
• Eicher - OEM简介
• Eicher - OEM型号，2023 年
• 马恆达 - OEM简介
• Mahindra - OEM型号，2023 年

成长机会宇宙

• 成长机会 1 - 采用低排放气体和零排放卡车
• 成长机会 2 – 新的卡车拥有量和商业模式
• 成长机会 3 – 改善安全性和连网型远端资讯处理解决方案

下一步

Alternative Powertrains and New Business Models Will Ensure Transformational Growth

The Indian trucking industry includes a diverse range of vehicles, operators, and logistics services and is a critical driver of economic growth and development. Following years of axle load regulation and the implementation of Bharat Stage 6 emission norms, the industry faced stagnant volumes made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the industry is in the recovery and growth phase now. In 2022, total truck shipment was 0.87 million units. The largest share of the market remains with the light-duty segment, with 0.56 million trucks sold in 2022, followed by the heavy-duty segment with 0.22 trucks, and the medium-duty segment with 0.09 million trucks. With pivotal initiatives such as Bharatmala focusing on road infrastructure and Sagarmala on the modernization of ports, a comprehensive national logistics policy, and a national infrastructure pipeline, the outlay for development is high and will boost the demand for truck deployment.

Despite elevated diesel prices, sales of compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks have increased in the medium-duty segment, accounting for 27.8% of the overall powertrain. Revised CNG pricing will boost sales. The dedicated liquified natural gas (LNG) policy will increase LNG usage in trucks, especially in the heavy-duty segment, as LNG offers a longer range and performance similar to that of diesel. Leading OEMs have showcased their LNG models as prototypes, with launches expected in 2024. Truck electrification will start with light-duty trucks, target last-mile operations, and expand to other segments when charging infrastructure and acquisition cost improves. Electrification in commercial vehicles is further bolstered by subsidies from the central and state governments. In addition, production-linked incentives (PLI) are also available for OEMs. The rise in connectivity and telematics solutions by third-party players and OEMs is improving fleet management for customers; however, more regulation is expected. The overall growth trajectory of the Indian commercial vehicle sector will remain strong.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Study Scope

• Scope of Analysis
• Product and Powertrain Segmentation
• Research Aims and Objectives
• Key Questions This Study Will Answer

Growth Environment

• Pivotal Government Initiatives Focusing on Boosting the Indian Economy
• Key Trends Driving the Indian Commercial Vehicle Market
• Truck Applications Overview
• Freight Transport Categories and Types, India
• Truck Ecosystem in India
• Snapshot of Global Commercial Vehicles in 2022
• OEM Landscape, 2023
• Regulations and Policies, 2023-2027 Outlook
• Electric Vehicle (EV) Incentives and Subsidies, 2023

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Key Growth Metrics
• Forecast Criteria
• Growth Drivers for the Indian Commercial Vehicle Market
• Growth Restraints for the Indian Commercial Vehicle Market

Application Usage and Sector Outlook

• Truck Sales by Application
• Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Logistics
• Consumer Durables, Retail, and eCommerce
• FMCG, Pharma, and Documents
• Road Construction and Real Estate
• Planned Road Construction
• Fruit, Vegetables, and Milk
• Agricultural Products

Historic Unit Sales Performance Review

• LD Truck Sales Cycles
• LD Truck Market Share Comparison for CY 2018-2022
• MD Truck Sales Cycles
• MD Truck Market Share Comparison for CY 2018-2022
• HD Truck Sales Cycles
• HD Truck Market Share Comparison for CY 2018-2022

Unit Sales and Powertrain Forecast

• Indian Commercial Vehicle Unit Sales Forecast, 2022-2035
• LD Truck Unit Sales Forecast
• LD Truck Powertrain Forecast
• MD Truck Unit Sales Forecast
• MD Truck Powertrain Forecast
• HD Truck Unit Sales Forecast
• HD Truck Powertrain Forecast
• Forecast Discussion

Alternative Fuels Ecosystem

• LNG
• CNG
• NG for the Transportation Sector
• Hydrogen Ecosystem

Truck Technology Systems

• Truck Technology Road Map
• Cabin Ergonomics
• Fuel Efficiency Improvements, 2021-2035

Safety and Telematics Systems

• Truck Safety Systems
• Truck Safety System Adoption, 2022-2035
• Truck Telematics Installed Base
• Truck Telematics Market Share
• Truck Telematics Feature by OEM
• Truck Telematics Installed Base Forecast

OEM Profiles

• Tata Motors-OEM Profile
• Tata Motors-OEM Models, 2023
• Ashok Leyland-OEM Profile
• Ashok Leyland-OEM Models, 2023
• Eicher-OEM Profile
• Eicher-OEM Models, 2023
• Mahindra-OEM Profile
• Mahindra-OEM Models, 2023

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Adoption of Low- and Zero-emission Trucks
• Growth Opportunity 2-New Truck Ownership and Business Models
• Growth Opportunity 3-Improved Safety and Connected Telematics Solutions

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer